climate change history essay

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Climate Change History

By: History.com Editors

Updated: June 9, 2023 | Original: October 6, 2017

Climate change is the long-term alteration in Earth’s climate and weather patterns. It took nearly a century of research and data to convince the vast majority of the scientific community that human activity could alter the climate of our entire planet. In the 1800s, experiments suggesting that human-produced carbon dioxide (CO2) and other gases could collect in the atmosphere and insulate Earth were met with more curiosity than concern. By the late 1950s, CO2 readings would offer some of the first data to corroborate the global warming theory. Eventually an abundance of data, along with climate modeling and real-world weather events would show not only that global warming was real, but that it also presented a host of catastrophic consequences.

Early Inklings That Humans Can Alter Global Climate

Dating back to the ancient Greeks, many people had proposed that humans could change temperatures and influence rainfall by chopping down trees, plowing fields or irrigating a desert.

One theory of climate effects, widely believed until the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, held that “rain follows the plow,” the now-discredited idea that tilling soil and other agricultural practices would result in increased rainfall.

Accurate or not, those perceived climate effects were merely local. The idea that humans could somehow alter climate on a global scale would seem far-fetched for centuries.

The Greenhouse Effect

In the 1820s, French mathematician and physicist Joseph Fourier proposed that energy reaching the planet as sunlight must be balanced by energy returning to space since heated surfaces emit radiation. But some of that energy, he reasoned, must be held within the atmosphere and not return to space, keeping Earth warm.

He proposed that Earth’s thin covering of air—its atmosphere—acts the way a glass greenhouse would. Energy enters through the glass walls, but is then trapped inside, much like a warm greenhouse.

This theory was further explored by the work of  Eunice Newton Foote in the 1850s. Foote's experiments using glass cylinders demonstrated that the heating effect of the sun was greater in moist air than dry air. She detected the highest degree of heating occurred in a cylinder containing carbon dioxide. Her work would foreshadow the work of Irish scientist John Tyndall who also zeroed-in on what kinds of gases played the biggest role in absorbing heat.

Experts have since understood that the greenhouse analogy was an oversimplification, since outgoing infrared radiation isn’t exactly trapped by Earth’s atmosphere but absorbed. The more greenhouse gases there are, the more energy is kept within Earth’s atmosphere.

Greenhouse Gases

But the so-called greenhouse effect analogy stuck and some 50 years later, the work of Eunice Newton Foote  offered further insight into how heat could be absorbed in Earth's atmosphere. In the 1850s. Foote's experiments using glass cylinders demonstrated that the heating effect of the sun was greater in moist air than dry air. And she detected the highest degree of heating occurred in a cylinder containing carbon dioxide. Although Foote, an amateur scientist, was never recognized in her lifetime, her work foreshadowed the findings of Irish scientist John Tyndall.

Tyndall also explored exactly what kinds of gases were most likely to play a role in absorbing sunlight. Tyndall’s laboratory tests in the 1860s showed that coal gas (containing CO2, methane and volatile hydrocarbons) was especially effective at absorbing energy. He eventually demonstrated that CO2 alone acted like sponge in the way it could absorb multiple wavelengths of sunlight.

By 1895, Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius became curious about how decreasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere might cool Earth. In order to explain past ice ages, he wondered if a decrease in volcanic activity might lower global CO2 levels. His calculations showed that if CO2 levels were halved, global temperatures could decrease by about 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit).

Next, Arrhenius wondered if the reverse were true. Arrhenius returned to his calculations, this time investigating what would happen if CO2 levels were doubled. The possibility seemed remote at the time, but his results suggested that global temperatures would increase by the same amount—5 degrees C or 9 degrees F.

Decades later, modern climate modeling have confirmed that Arrhenius’ numbers weren’t far off the mark.

Welcoming a Warmer Earth

Back in the 1890s, however, the concept of warming the planet was remote and even welcomed.

As Arrehenius wrote, “By the influence of the increasing percentage of carbonic acid [CO2] in the atmosphere, we may hope to enjoy ages with more equable and better climates, especially as regards the colder regions of the earth.”

By the 1930s, at least one scientist would start to claim that carbon emissions might already be having a warming effect. British engineer Guy Stewart Callendar noted that the United States and North Atlantic region had warmed significantly on the heels of the Industrial Revolution .

Callendar’s calculations suggested that a doubling of CO2 in Earth’s atmosphere could warm Earth by 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). He would continue to argue into the 1960s that a greenhouse-effect warming of the planet was underway.

While Callendar’s claims were largely met with skepticism, he managed to draw attention to the possibility of global warming. That attention played a part in garnering some of the first government-funded projects to more closely monitor climate and CO2 levels.

Keeling Curve

Most famous among those research projects was a monitoring station established in 1958 by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography on top of Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory.

Scripps geochemist Charles Keeling was instrumental in outlining a way to record CO2 levels and in securing funding for the observatory, which was positioned in the center of the Pacific Ocean.

Data from the observatory revealed what would become known as the “Keeling Curve.” The upward, saw tooth-shaped curve showed a steady rise in CO2 levels, along with short, jagged up-and-down levels of the gas produced by repeated wintering and greening of the Northern Hemisphere.

The dawn of advanced computer modeling in the 1960s began to predict possible outcomes of the rise in CO2 levels made evident by the Keeling Curve. Computer models consistently showed that a doubling of CO2 could produce a warming of 2 degrees C or 3.6 degrees F within the next century.

Still, the models were preliminary and a century seemed a very long time away.

1970s Scare: A Cooling Earth

In the early 1970s, a different kind of climate worry took hold: global cooling. As more people became concerned about pollutants people were emitting into the atmosphere, some scientists theorized the pollution could block sunlight and cool Earth.

In fact, Earth did cool somewhat between 1940-1970 due to a postwar boom in aerosol pollutants which reflected sunlight away from the planet. The idea that sunlight-blocking pollutants could chill Earth caught on in the media, as in a 1974 Time magazine article titled “Another Ice Age ?”

But as the brief cooling period ended and temperatures resumed their upward climb, warnings by a minority of scientists that Earth was cooling were dropped. Part of the reasoning was that while smog could remain suspended in the air for weeks, CO2 could persist in the atmosphere for centuries.

1988: Global Warming Gets Real

The early 1980s would mark a sharp increase in global temperatures. Many experts point to 1988 as a critical turning point when watershed events placed global warming in the spotlight.

The summer of 1988 was the hottest on record (although many since then have been hotter). 1988 also saw widespread drought and wildfires within the United States.

Scientists sounding the alarm about climate change began to see media and the public paying closer attention. NASA scientist James Hansen delivered testimony and presented models to congress in June of 1988, saying he was “99 percent sure” that global warming was upon us.

One year later, in 1989, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established under the United Nations to provide a scientific view of climate change and its political and economic impacts.

As global warming gained currency as a real phenomenon, researchers dug into possible ramifications of a warming climate. Among the predictions were warnings of severe heat waves, droughts and more powerful hurricanes fueled by rising sea surface temperatures.

Other studies predicted that as massive glaciers at the poles melt, sea levels could rise between 11 and 38 inches (28 to 98 centimeters) by 2100, enough to swamp many of the cities along the east coast of the United States.

Kyoto Protocol: United States In, Then Out

Government leaders began discussions to try and stem the outflow of greenhouse gas emissions to prevent the most dire predicted outcomes. The first global agreement to reduce greenhouse gases, the Kyoto Protocol, was adopted in 1997.

The protocol, which was signed by President Bill Clinton , called for reducing the emission of six greenhouse gases in 41 countries plus the European Union to 5.2 percent below 1990 levels during the target period of 2008 to 2012.

In March 2001, shortly after taking office, President George W. Bush announced the United States would not implement the Kyoto Protocol, saying the protocol was “fatally flawed in fundamental ways” and citing concerns that the deal would hurt the U.S. economy.

'An Inconvenient Truth'

That same year, the IPCC issued its third report on climate change, saying that global warming, unprecedented since the end of the last ice age, is “very likely,” with highly damaging future impacts. Five years later, in 2006, former Vice President and presidential candidate Al Gore weighed in on the dangers of global warming with the debut of his film An Inconvenient Truth . Gore won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for his work on behalf of climate change.

Politicization over climate change, however, would continue, with some skeptics arguing that predictions presented by the IPCC and publicized in media like Gore’s film were overblown.

Among those expressing skepticism over global warming was future U.S. president Donald Trump . On November 6, 2012, Trump tweeted “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.”

Paris Climate Agreement: United States In, Then Out

The United States, under President Barack Obama , would sign onto another milestone treaty on climate change, the Paris Climate Agreement , in 2015. In that agreement, 197 countries pledged to set targets for their own greenhouse gas cuts and to report their progress.

The backbone of the Paris Climate Agreement was a declaration to prevent a global temperature rise of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Many experts considered 2 degrees C of warming to be a critical limit, which, if surpassed will lead to increasing risk of more deadly heat waves, droughts, storms and rising global sea levels.

The election of Donald Trump in 2016 led to the United States declaring it would withdraw from the Paris treaty. President Trump, citing the “onerous restrictions” imposed by the accord, stated that he could not “in good conscience support a deal that punishes the United States.”

That same year, independent analyses by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found Earth’s 2016 surface temperatures to be the warmest since modern record keeping began in 1880. And in October 2018, the U.N.'s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report that concluded "rapid, far-reaching" actions are needed to cap global warming at 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) and avert the most dire, irreversible consequences for the planet.

President Joe Biden signed an executive order on his first day in office on January 20, 2021 to rejoin the agreement. The United States formally rejoined the Paris treaty on February 19, 2021. 

Greta Thunberg and Climate Strikes

In August 2018, Swedish teenager and climate activist Greta Thunberg began protesting in front of Swedish Parliament with a sign: “School Strike for Climate.” Her protest to raise awareness for global warming caught the world by storm and by November 2018, over 17,000 students in 24 countries were participating in climate strikes. By March 2019, Thunberg was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize. 

She participated in the United Nations Climate Summit in New York City in August of 2019, famously taking a boat across the Atlantic instead of flying to reduce her carbon footprint. In her September 2019 appearance at the UN she told world leaders , “You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words…We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money, and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!”

The UN Climate Action Summit reinforced that “1.5℃ is the socially, economically, politically and scientifically safe limit to global warming by the end of this century,” and set a deadline for achieving net zero emissions to 2050.

HISTORY Vault: How the Earth Was Made

When it comes to construction, nothing compares to Mother Nature. Discover the building blocks of the planet we call home.

The Discovery of Global Warming, by Spencer R. Weart. ( Harvard University Press , 2008). The Thinking Person’s Guide to Climate Change, by Robert Henson. ( AMS Books , 2014). “Another Ice Age?” Time . “Why we know about the greenhouse gas effect” Scientific American . The History of the Keeling Curve, Scripps Institute of Oceanography . Remembering the Drought of 1988, NASA Earth Observatory . Sea Level Rise, National Geographic/reference . “Guy Stewart Callendar: Global warming discovery marked,” BBC News . President Bush Discusses Global Climate Change, The White House, President George W. Bush . “Why the Paris talks won’t prevent 2 degrees of global warming,” PBS News Hour . Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord, The White House . “Trump Will Withdraw U.S. From Paris Climate Agreement,” The New York Times . “NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally,” NASA .

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Historicizing climate change—engaging new approaches to climate and history

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• Published: 14 September 2018
• Volume 151 , pages 1–13, ( 2018 )

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• Sverker Sörlin   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-2864-2315 1 &
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A Correction to this article was published on 06 November 2018

This article has been updated

This introduction to a special issue of Climatic Change argues that it is timely and welcome to intensify historical research into climate change and climate as factors of history. This is also already an ongoing trend in many disciplines. The article identifies two main strands in historical work on climate change, both multi-disciplinary: one that looks for it as a driver of historical change in human societies, the other that analyzes the intellectual and scientific roots of the climate system and its changes. In presenting the five papers in this special issue the introduction argues that it is becoming increasingly important to also situate “historicizing climate change” within the history of thought and practice in wider fields, as a matter of intellectual, political, and social history and theory. The five papers all serve as examples of intellectual, political, and social responses to climate-related phenomena and their consequences (ones that have manifested themselves relatively recently and are predominantly attributable to anthropogenic climate change). The historicizing work that these papers perform lies in the analysis of issues that are rising in societies related to climate change in its modern anthropogenic version. The history here is not so much about past climates, although climate change itself is always directly or indirectly present in the story, but rather about history as the social space where encounters take place and where new conditions for humans and societies and their companion species and their life worlds in natures and environments are unfolding and negotiated. With climate change as a growing phenomenon historicizing climate change in this version will become increasingly relevant.

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Understanding Climate Change Historically

General Introduction: Weather, Climate, and Human History

Towards a rigorous understanding of societal responses to climate change

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1 Introduction

Climate change is an historical phenomenon. Climate history is also a specialty in its own right, drawing increasing attention from scholars in many fields. In this special issue of Climatic Change , we explore not the history of climate in itself but the histories of agential engagements with climate change, as a contribution to making climate change fully a part of history in both its natural and societal dimensions. “Historicizing climate change” as a motto for this work draws on the work of Reinhart Koselleck, who argued for the need to historicize concepts, i.e., to contextualize them in processes of change over time. Among these were not least historical concepts, for example, time, progress, and decline, and indeed history itself (Koselleck 1975/1997 , 1985/2004 : ch 9). We explore in this special issue ways of historicizing climate change in the sense of weaving climate change as an issue and as a context into the fabric of broader intellectual, political, and social histories. Our focus is on anthropogenic climate change as a modern phenomenon, and on the recognition of anthropogenic climate change and its implications in particular for human civilizations and planetary futures, as this has taken place in particular intellectual disciplines and social and political contexts (not simply on climatic variation which is of course an eternal fact).

The papers assembled here started as draft contributions to a workshop entitled “Historicizing Climate Change” at Princeton University in May 2014. This workshop was convened by a research group in the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies focused on “Communicating Uncertainty: Science, Institution, and Ethics in the Politics of Global Climate Change.” Workshop participants included a number of climate scientists as well as historians, philosophers, economists, and others, who explored several topics relevant both to historicizing the emergence of climate science and to its relationship to the predicament, and understanding, of climate change. Five of the papers presented at the workshop are published here (as with many workshops, the route from presentation to publication has been a complex one). The papers unite in exploring particular relations and responses (both agential and experiential) to climate change. These relations are embedded in but not limited to the experiences of place (Hastrup on the Inughuit, Amrith on the Indian monsoon, Anker on the Norwegian oil economy and the politics thereof) and intellectual discipline (Forrester on Anglophone moral and political philosophy especially in the 1970s, Dennig on recent currents within welfare economics, including these dealing with future time). Together, they bear at least partial witness to the broader themes of the workshop, which included the relations between prescription and description; the limits of quantification (including the relations between risk and uncertainty); and the ethical and agential dilemmas of predicting and responding as well as anticipating.

In what follows, we provide some background on efforts to historicize climate change before the “historicizing” concept was in wide circulation. We do this to identify some of the standard tropes and topics of climate change discourse, especially to assist readers unfamiliar with historical and historiographical approaches to past and recent climate and its changes. From there, we proceed to discuss the five papers to bring out some of their crucial ideas.

2 Chronologies and other necessary linear understandings

One important line of historical work on climate change has sought to understand the development of the science that underpins current understandings of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change, IPCC. Its fundamental account of the progress of knowledge is mapped out in a separate chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report (Le Treut et al. 2007 ) which reads very much like a chronology of scientific discoveries and of models. Several book length studies do the same kind of work. Perhaps the most well known of these is Spencer Weart’s History of Global Warming ( 2003/2008 ).

On a different tack, Clarence Glacken’s Traces on the Rhodian Shore ( 1967 ) remains a landmark work on theories of climate change and ways of understanding climate in human history. Many internal histories of geographical thought and of the atmospheric and geophysical sciences provide more work on these lines. Neville Brown’s History and Climate Change ( 2001 ) serves as an example; Rupert Darwall chronicles the last half century of policy history in The Age of Global Warming ( 2013 ); A History of the Science and Politics of Climate Change ( 2007 ), an institutional autobiography by IPCC founding chair Bert Bolin also belongs among these now quite numerous attempts to recount the emergence of the current state of the field.

These and other “linear” histories have done and keep doing important work for the broader understanding of climate change. They set the knowledge record straight and they provide essential information of the sequence of events in science and governance that supplements the natural history data of climate variation. But, they were based on earlier work of similar kinds: works such as those by Hubert Lamb in the 1960s and 1970s (Lamb 1972/1977 , 1982 ), Jean Grove ( 1988 ), and the less well-known work of G. E. P. Brooks of the British Met Office, whose Climate Through the Ages ( 1926 , new ed. 1949) offered a systematic classification of then-current theories about climate and its variations. Taken as a whole, this literature provides a useful insight in the sometimes rapid shifts of state-of-the-art knowledge. Brooks is a case in point. Like Lamb, who had studied medieval warming and predicted coming ice ages, he did not readily accept the idea of anthropogenic warming during the industrial period, advanced by G. S. Callendar ( 1938 , cf. Fleming 2007 ). Brooks, like most experts of the time, dismissed the idea as late as 1951, writing: “[Svante] Arrhenius and [Thomas] Chamberlin saw in this [i.e., increased atmospheric carbon dioxide] a cause of climatic changes, but the theory was never widely accepted and was abandoned when it was found that all the long-wave radiation absorbed by CO 2 is also absorbed by water vapour.” Callendar’s theory, judged Brooks was sadly mistaken, and “not considered further.” (Brooks 1951 : 1016).

3 Historical science and politics of climate change

Histories of the scientific understanding of climate change are numerous and they have in common the rejection of then-current orthodoxy. There is a large body of work on the epistemology and sociology of climate change, and much of it deals with skepticism and denial. Although some of that work is historical, its time horizons are not generally very deep. There is emerging work on how societies can or cannot take on challenges, ranging from broader synthetic overviews such as Jared Diamond’s Collapse ( 2004 ) to specialized studies related to contemporary policy. A strong example here is Mike Hulme’s Why We Disagree About Climate Change ( 2009 ), but equally important are Hulme’s articles on the problems that may occur when we reduce “the future to climate change” or disregard the role of humanities in seeking a deeper understanding of climate change as a societal phenomenon (Hulme 2011a , Hulme 2011b ; cf. Holm and Viniwarter 2017 ). Also of significance is Joshua P. Howe’s analysis of the science politics of Charles David Keeling’s now-famous Mauna Loa curve showing the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Although the curve has been central to communicating climate change to politicians, environmentalists, and the general public the focus on the curve has also hidden what has always been behind it: society, economic interests, and the behavior of millions of humans, all that produces its unbroken upward trend (Howe 2014 ).

Historians and sociologists of science and the environment, joined by historical geographers and historically inclined scientists, have produced studies of climate change, of media representations of climate change, of the institutions that are involved in climate change science and policy, of their reports and assessments, and of the local effects of climate change on various social groups. The geographies of climate change have also been addressed in multiple ways. Climate-centered historical studies, many of which include compelling case studies appear from virtually all corners of the world. The Arctic and the North Atlantic have become hotspots of climate change science and meteorology since the late nineteenth century, thanks to the work of the Bergen school of meteorology and comprehensive studies of glaciers and sea ice measurements (Friedman 1989 , Sörlin 2009a , 2011 , Christensen et al. 2013 ). We have detailed investigations (by Matt Farish, John P. Lackenbauer, Ron Doel, Julia Lajus, and many others) of how the US, Canada, the Soviet Union and other countries built research stations and specialized laboratories that could monitor and understand snow and ice conditions related to a potential Arctic war (Doel et al. 2014 ). The changing historical geopolitics of climate change are well documented by contributions to a volume on Polar Geopolitics ( 2014 ) edited by Klaus Dodds and Richard Powell. Mark Carey’s ( 2010 ) work on the encounters of glaciology with local residents and cultures in the Andes demonstrates historians’ interest in weaving local, anthropological, and science histories into a richer understanding of what climate change actually means on the ground and in human communities (cf Taillant 2015 ). Similar reinterpretations have been proposed for Australia (McGrath and Jebb 2015 ), North American settler history (White 2017 ), and other regional histories are also being enriched and nuanced by the re-introduction of climate.

Climate is a key feature of the vibrant multi-disciplinary literature writing of “planetary” histories as reflections of the common human predicament, or as examples of what anthropologist Joseph Masco ( 2010 , 2014 ), calls the “security state” by which he means military, geoengineering, and terraforming enterprises. Literary scholar Ursula Heise ( 2008 ) has similarly identified an emerging “sense of planet” in a post-nature— Nach der Natur —state (Heise 2010 ). Science, and not least climate science, is very much part of histories of the “planetary” and of the Anthropocene (Hamblin 2013 ; Höhler 2015 ; Bonneuil and Fressoz 2016 ).

4 Reinvoking the agency of climate

Using historical climate data to explain history has a much longer pre-history than climate science. Since Hippocrates (c. 460–370 BC), there has been a rich, if not always venerable, environmentalist or determinist tendency to understand differences among cultures and nations and even “races” by reference to their climates. Climate was here understood as local or regional climate. Our modern understanding of climate as a common planetary phenomenon with average and secular trends of CO2 content, ice, dust, temperature, and other features is essentially a product of the age of climate models which homogenized climate into a global phenomenon and thus contributed immensely to the emerging planetary story. Deborah Coen’s ( 2013 , 2018 ) work on late nineteenth-century understandings of climatology arising at the boundaries of geography, geophysics, and anthropology, and struggling to situate the various scales of the subject between the local and regional on the one hand and the global (produced by interaction among local effects) on the other, highlights philosophical debates about such understanding, poised between law-like explanations and idiographic meaning.

In the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, environmentalist explanations had their heyday. An influential root of this line of thinking was the work of Friedrich Ratzel, the German geographer, whose many followers included geographers Ellen Churchill Semple (whose key work Influences of Geographic Environment ( 1911 ) drew heavily on Ratzel), and Ellsworth Huntington (famous for claims about the strong influence of climate on human societies—as in Civilization and Climate 1915 and other books). Both Semple and Huntington wrote in the first decades of the twentieth century and remained influential up until WW II. Their histories worked chiefly on a grand scale and had a metaphysical bent. Huntington wanted to understand why Asian cultures expanded westward. Other geographers in the first half of the twentieth century, including Griffith Taylor (Strange 2010 , Strange and Bashford 2008 ) and Vilhjalmur Stefansson (e.g. Stefansson 1922 ; Pálsson 2005 ) similarly produced grand schemes of human “progress” or “decline” based on climate. This line of thinking won little sympathy among historians and diminished rather than stimulated their interest in environmental factors. When climatic explanations are taken up today, they avoid the many absurdities of earlier climate determinism (Hornborg and Crumley 2006 ; White 2017 ). New work on the Roman Climate Optimum and on reinterpreting the Norse Sagas in light of new knowledge of climate change (Hartman et al. 2017 ; cf. Utterström 1955 ) exemplifies these developments.

Historical work on climate change time series deserves particular mention, with eminent contributions from Christian Pfister and his followers in Switzerland and other Alpine countries, by Astrid Ogilvie and colleagues in Iceland, and from many archeologists spread around the world (Pfister 1988 , Ogilvie and Jónsson 2001a , b ).Some recent historical work in this area uses models. One major initiative in this regard is IHOPE (Integrated History and Future of People on Earth; IHOPE 2018 ). It was started in 2003 as part of the earth science community of the global ICSU portfolio of programs, which has now changed its umbrella name to Future Earth. From the outset IHOPE researchers have sought to model and quantify historical change across time scales that often reach beyond those of traditional history or even archeology. This fits well into the narrative of a quantifying planetary enterprise resting on mega-infrastructures for monitoring and modeling (Edwards 2010 ; Höhler 2015 ), and some of IHOPE’s publications so far (e.g., Costanza et al. 2007 ) show a lot of this ambition. Indeed, so considerable is the growth in climatic reinterpretations of past events and periods that we may talk of an “encounter” of paleo-science and history (Haldon et al. 2018 ).

Geoffrey Parker is more conventional in his choice of historical themes—war, disease, famine, demographic factors—in Global Crisis: War, Climate Change & Catastrophe in the Seventeenth Century ( 2013 ). This is a towering achievement linking events all over the world into a comprehensive framework, with climate as the ultimate driving force. It is far from new to propose climate as a key factor in crisis-ridden Europe; the late Eric Hobsbawm did this in two articles in Past & Present in 1954 and sparked debate about the seventeenth century “crisis” in Europe (Hobsbawm 1954 a and b ). The “Little Ice Age”—the concept itself dates to 1939 (Matthes 1939 ; Grove 1988 ; Fagan 2000 )—has been the source of historical explanations of witch hunts (a long standing debate in its own right, e.g., Levack 1987 , Behringer 1988 , 1995 , 1999 , Behringer et al. 2005 , Büntgen et al. 2011 , Büntgen and Hellmann 2014 ); demographic change; the course of the thirty-year war; and many other occurrences. What Parker does, is to expand climatic causality to the world, using recent knowledge of monsoon changes, El Nino and La Nina phenomena. Above all, Parker seeks to understand how repercussions of climate-related events such as famine and plague in one place spread to others through trade, war, colonial policies, and disease (cf Brooke 2014 ).

Bold and admirable, even ground-breaking though Parker’s attempt to historicize the world through the agency of climate change, may seem it ultimately fails to convince. Parker leaves unexplained why his perspective provides a “global” history, let alone a global “crisis,” a concept that in and of itself deserves to be thoroughly historicized as agency of major earthly disruptions is shifting towards humans in the Anthropocene, and by implication to earlier periods (Mauelshagen 2014 ; Paglia 2015 ). Did some imam in the Arab world or some Moghul leader in India, some aboriginal person in Australia, natives of Tierra del Fuego, or even people in Europe before the thirty-year war, define their predicament as a crisis? If so, how was it a worse crisis than those of previous centuries? Empirical testing of the “Parker thesis” has provided a wealth of new knowledge but does not seem to corroborate his basic claim (Izdebski 2018 ; Hieu Phung Corsi 2018 ). This does not, of course, rule out climatic explanations in other periods or more specific domains, for example from Asian history (e.g. Lieberman 2003 , 2012 ) or early modern North America (White 2017 ).

As we have seen, Parker is far from alone in using climatic factors to write a global history; similar approaches are increasingly evident for the modern period (Mauelshagen 2010 ), and in the growing re-interpretive historical literature on the post-WWII period (e.g., McNeill and Engelke 2016 ). This interest is bound to increase rapidly just as “the environment” (Warde et al. 2018 ) has become a key factor in modern historiography because it has turned into a major policy issue. History is, after all, largely about societies and their decisions and concerns. In this respect, climate clearly has causal agency, but its agency differs from that attributed to it by Parker or some of the other projects looking to climate as a “driver” of historical change. Climate is mediated through politics and social institutions , and shaped in our time at least and perhaps for millennia (Ruddiman 2005 ) by humans and their diseases, technologies, animals, and societies. Here lies both a major challenge and an opening as we are considering new ways to develop our historicizing work. We shall return to this theme at the end of this introduction.

5 Different—but equal

To sum up these broad historiographic trends we can identify two dominant, albeit diverse and interdisciplinary, and quite distinct, scholarly enterprises and epistemic communities. The first chiefly tries to understand climate change as a scientific, political, and cultural phenomenon. To put it crudely, it is an attempt to establish an intellectual history of the climate issue and by implication it is by and large a late modern history, rarely more than a century long, but clearly with innovative exceptions, for example Julie Cruikshank’s ( 2005 ) work on late eighteenth century encounters between French naturalists and the local Tlíngit in the Pacific North West. Its main practitioners are in historical and other humanities and (some) social sciences, although, clearly, there are many instances of collaboration with scientists and policy.

The second is first and foremost an attempt to give historical agency to climate, albeit in many instances a climate affected by, humans. The object of historical research here is material; it is in the records of climate change and in the evidence of human influence of that climate and its influence on the humans and their societies. This evidence privileges the methodologies of archeologists, palaeo-ecologists, geoscientists and biophysical experts. Intellectual changes are in the background, although they sometimes play a role. The time depth of this historicizing enterprise is typically much longer, indeed very little of this work is about current affairs, although there are efforts in this community to claim relevance by showing “lessons from the past,” often, as in Diamond’s Collapse , lessons about the inability of human societies to respond to rapid and unfamiliar kinds of change, or, that some past societies have displayed excellent survival capabilities, or even, as in the case of Ruddiman ( 2005 ), that humans in the past have influenced climate far beyond what was previously assumed.

Even such a cursory introduction as this shows the wide range of topics and approaches that can be brought to bear on climate change. Still, other categorizations and trends are emerging, such as a line of work that seeks to widen the scope of climate explanatory history to include modern periods as well, and thus give relevant causal agency to climate on shorter time scales and closer to the present. Clearly, we are entering a period of human history when climate is gaining significantly in historical importance. This serves in turn to explain the rapidly growing body of work on climate history, including a first ever Handbook of Climate History (White et al. 2018 ). All of this has further enhanced interest in the current climate and in the intellectual and political dimensions of “climate” in contemporary societies, as well as experiential responses to climate change that have accumulated in the fairly recent past.

6 Encountering climate change—building a trajectory

While the knowledge history of anthropogenic climate change itself, narrowly conceived, and the history of the significance of climate for past events are both important, we turn now to a third (if overlapping) area of focus as the topic of this special issue: the broader changes in history of which climate change makes up a critical (but not exhaustive or narrow) part. For, it is not only climate that changes. Historicizing work is needed to demonstrate how understandings of and responses to climate change are themselves historical, and hence something different than “climate history,” although inextricably linked to it.

These five papers are certainly not the first to historicize climate change in this respect. We find elements of it in Joshua Howe’s Behind the Curve (Howe 2014 ), with its historicizing of the Keeling curve and its politics. Many of Mike Hulme’s contributions over the last decade fit the same pattern; in his own characterization of his work: “the cultural and epistemic construction of the idea of climate change, and its discursive and material effects” (Hulme 2018 ). It is worth noting also that the term “historicizing” itself has sometimes been used in this same sense (e.g., Sörlin 2009b ; Barnes and Dove 2015 ), probably to signal an ambition to go beyond the suggestion that lies implicit in the very term “climate change” that it is the record of that change that is the focus of inquiry. Because, for those with the express wish to “historicize climate change” it is rarely climate change itself that is at stake; what is essential is to make that change part of this thing we call “history.” Or, as Koselleck would have said, “historical knowledge (as against information of the past)” requires theoretical reflection on an acknowledged historical problem (White 2002 : xii-xiii).

Our attention here is on the history of attempts to understand, engage with, and respond to current and future anthropogenic climate change, whether academically, politically, or experientially, while recognizing that such attempts must themselves grapple with the causes and consequences of the varying phenomena of a changing climate. Within and across political and disciplinary boundaries, human ideas, and practices that respond to climate change are thereby becoming part of what needs to be historicized. “Historicizing climate change” in this sense moves outward from the specific phenomena of climate history and the discovery of anthropogenic climate change, to trace how these phenomena are becoming embedded in the histories of intellectual disciplines and of particular societies. “Historicizing climate change” must involve these more general histories as well as the specific ones that have so far gone under the labels of climate history and the history of climate change narrowly conceived.

The papers that follow are all representative of this turn. They historicize both the understanding of recent climate debates and the varied responses that such understanding (or lack of understanding) can produce in wider contexts. A brief summary of each paper draws out the main themes that they raise.

Sunil Amrith’s article on “Risk and the South Asian Monsoon” goes several centuries back to review the emerging scientific-cum-political understanding of the monsoon, before focusing on views of the monsoon as a challenge for modern India and the Indian state project. The challenge has largely been met by large dam projects to lessen dependence on monsoon agriculture but with contemporary climate change this has opened the door to a new kind of uncertainty and to some, only partially quantifiable, attendant risks; as Amrith writes: “Anthropogenic climate change introduces a new level of uncertainty into monsoon forecasting.” Amrith’s paper picks up the question of scaling, between the regional effects of the monsoon and the national boundaries of the Indian state, as well as the difficulties of prediction, in relation to the human need to anticipate the future, created by a particular technological mentality and the rapidly changing climatic factors driving the monsoon.

Peder Anker tells the story of Norway, a small Scandinavian country rich in oil and gas, with large oil field reserves and the largest per capita national oil fund in the world, as well as (and partly because of that) one of the world’s most affluent populations. But as Anker shows, it is also a country with an early and strong environmental movement that has been riven by debates over how to navigate the realities of a fossil fuel dependent economy, ethically, and politically. Anker argues that we can understand the particular set of global policy approaches (focused on tradeable carbon credits) advocated by some of the country’s intellectual and political elite, as an effort to reconcile environmental self-understanding with the country’s economic reliance on oil and gas. “A Pioneer Country?”—the question mark is warranted, as Anker’s analysis (subtitled “A History of Norwegian Climate Politics”) shows.

Both Amrith and Anker seek to explain how states have endeavored to navigate economic, existential, and ideological challenges posed by climate change. In different ways, India and Norway canvassed institutions and political leadership to combine academic approaches with political purposes to formulate elite policy projects. By contrast, Francis Dennig and Katrina Forrester focus primarily on academic practitioners themselves and on currents within academic disciplines, though Dennig’s study of “Climate Change and the Re-Evaluation of Cost-Benefit Analysis” does identify the significance of academic debates for public policy. Dennig looks at the emergence of dominant approaches to cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and surveys debates about their applicability for understanding the economics of climate change. He focuses especially on normative questions such as the appropriate choice of discount rate. He concludes “that climate change has reopened a debate on the normative foundations of economics that had laid dormant for some time.”

The role of intellectual disciplines in conceiving of the future—and the necessity for them to take stances on controversial normative questions about the nature and extent of the connection between past, present, and future—is also broached by Katrina Forrester on “The Problem of the Future in Postwar Anglo-American Political Philosophy.” Forrester explores the emergence of the intergenerational problem that has become acute in contemporary analytical philosophy. She attributes this to environmental debates that included recognition of climate change. She traces a tension (explored by the philosophers in those debates), between conceiving of the future as part of a sequence of historical change (but leading to future people whose own ethical views are hard to imagine), and flattening it out to give full and equal ethical weight to future people no different from those in the present.

Moving from the study of political theory to the practice of anthropology, Kirsten Hastrup draws on evidence from her many years of field work among North West Greenland Inughuit in Quaanaaq to explore how efforts to understand climate change depend upon and disrupt relationships between past and future. Hers is a very concrete narrative of human experiences of climate change in the circumpolar world. Here too, much of the traditional ethnography holds—this is a community that is able to maintain its basic tenets. But climate change, at the same time, “changes everything”, to use Naomi Klein’s ( 2014 ) phrase. The role of anticipation, the relationship between explanation and understanding, and the question of scale in tackling the very meaning of historicization of climate change are all engaged powerfully by Hastrup.

These five papers contribute to “climate history” although they are not self-identified (either as papers or in terms of the academic subfield of their authors) as belonging in a particular “climate” subfield of history, archeology, or the environmental and atmospheric sciences. Each author stays fairly loyal to his or her primary area of expertise in political philosophy, colonial and environmental history, economics, or anthropology. Yet, they all help to “historicize climate change.” Historicizing this planetary and global/societal phenomenon requires unusual combinations of efforts in a multitude of disciplines, not least in the social sciences and humanities.

At the same time, these papers “perform” historical work as they articulate their problems. Each addresses, in a particular way, an encounter with climate change, a phenomenon that may have occurred in the past, as natural variability, but which in its current anthropogenic version cannot be discussed only in terms of effects or human/societal responses. In reality, climate change must be addressed in moral, political and intellectual terms, and all such discussions will follow a historical trajectory. At some point anthropogenic climate change enters the discussions of a community of hunters in the Arctic, a community of political economists or philosophers thinking about the future, or the intellectual and political leadership of a nation state. They all find that the foundations on which they have built their understanding and practice are changing, probably forever. The “history” here is about past climates only more indirectly (although distinct instances of historical climate change can sometimes play important roles). Rather, it is about history as the social space where encounters take place and where new conditions for humans and societies and their companion species and their life worlds in natures and environments are unfolding and negotiated.

Showcasing the five studies in this vein is useful, because they are all anchored in a theoretical approach that locates climate change in history and likewise traces the histories that evolve around it. We can already see that this is work that attracts scholars in the social sciences and humanities. But we must also reflect on the fact that most historians and other humanists and social scientists have still not (yet?) found it relevant to engage with climate issues. Given the pervasive nature and the ominous ramifications of climate change, would it not be useful to consider historicizing climate change to engage wider strands of history, and related disciplines? Could climate change history be sorted as a dimension of the history of capitalism? Should it be located in a historical discourse centered on justice, distribution, and rights, one that engages postcolonial scholars and social historians as much as specialists in the history of atmospheric sciences and meteorology? What is climate, and what could it be, in economic history? In business history? Feminist history? Diplomatic history? Subaltern history? How, taking Dipesh Chakrabarty’s much debated “species history” proposition seriously, could it be an active part of a, perhaps refined, Big History on the planetary level? (Chakrabarty 2009 ; Christian 2004 ).

This would involve widening the range of historical specialists involved, as this special issue has sought to do. Many of these specialists work on issues of power and politics that are close to the hearts of broad social groups, or on histories of ideas that may seem at first blush to be unrelated to the materialities of climate. The writing of a broad and integrated history makes it necessary to reflect on the relative weight of different factors. If we think that climate change is an increasingly important factor in history it behooves us to consider how it is affecting historical understanding and the self-understanding of other disciplines as their histories unfold. Climate change is working its way through social institutions, legislation, economic regulation, and markets, and it will become visible in cultural expressions and a wide range of intellectual fields and social practices.

To historicize climate change in the sense of the “ climate change of modern, contemporary, and future societies ” rather than climate change only as it appears in nature and environment is not only an urgent and worthy mission. It may also serve as a common ground to engage, bridge, and thereby further advance, the two dominant strands of previous climate historiography. By uncovering modes of intellectual engagements with climate change, the historicizing work exemplified here may also advance the practical efforts to counter and hopefully escape anthropogenic climate change to which so many such engagements point as urgent.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank the Princeton Institute for International and Regional Studies which provided the funding for the 2014 workshop on “Historicizing Climate Change,” organized by Melissa Lane and Robert Socolow, at which the papers in this special issue were first presented, and Socolow together with J. R. McNeill for serving with us as guest editors of this special issue. In addition to the authors in this special issue, other contributors to the workshop enlivened the discussion and their ideas have informed this introduction more broadly, including Deborah Coen, Caley Horan, Dale Jamieson, Jonathan Levy, Deborah Poskanzer, and Samuel Randalls; commentators Jeremy Adelman, Francis Dennig, James Fleming, Marc Fleurbaey, Sivan Kartha, Syukuro Manabe, J. R. McNeill, Jonathon Porritt, V. “Ram” Ramaswamy, Thomas Schelling, Richard Somerville, and Gus Speth; and rapporteurs Rachel Baker, Philip Hannam, David Kanter, Geeta Persad, and Nathan Ratledge, as well as all the other participants, too numerous to name here. We are also indebted to the editors and staff of this journal for their advice and patience and to Graeme Wynn for many suggestions of improvements on a draft manuscript.

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Sörlin, S., Lane, M. Historicizing climate change—engaging new approaches to climate and history. Climatic Change 151 , 1–13 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2285-0

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Five significant moments in climate science history

Climate change may seem like a new or emerging field, but scientists have been studying the topic for more than 160 years. Below are five significant moments from this important discipline.

Images from five moments in climate history. (Image credit: NOAA Heritage/Climate.gov)

NOAA Heritage Homepage

Although not included on the list, the formation of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration within the U.S. Department of Commerce in 1970 signified a national dedication to science, stewardship and service that very much included climate. NOAA remains at the forefront, leading the way in gathering the observations of the ocean and atmosphere that help to keep track of how the world’s natural systems have evolved and changed through time.

Amateur scientist Eunice Newton Foote argues , via a male colleague at the Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), that increased carbon dioxide could impact the climate in what we now call the Greenhouse Effect, demonstrating that the sun’s warming effect would be greater for air with water vapor and even greater with carbon dioxide.

Foote was building on arguments made by others in the 1820s and 1830s.

In 1859, three years after Foote’s paper was put forth, John Tyndall completed several sophisticated experiments that offsite link validated the same basic theory, and is remembered as the “father of the greenhouse gas effect.” Foote’s work, in contrast, was overlooked entirely until 2010, when a retired petroleum geologist discovered descriptions of her paper in some pre-Civil War technical journals.

It is unclear if Tyndall was aware of Foote’s research and writings. Women were unwelcome at most scientific meetings in the nineteenth century, and their work was often dismissed based on sexist assumptions about female intellect. The same year her paper was published, a column writer in Scientific American praised her AAAS paper as evidence that women had the ability to “investigate any subject with originality and precision.”

Charles David Keeling begins taking measurements carbon dioxide offsite link concentrations near the top of Hawaii’s Mauna Loa volcano at a facility owned by NOAA.

Over time Keeling, who became a researcher with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography UC San Diego, discovered that plants take in CO 2 during the summer months, which reduces atmospheric CO 2 . In the winter when plants lose their foliage, carbon that had been stored within their tissue is released to the atmosphere, thereby increasing CO 2 concentrations.

He also was able to graph and document a rise in atmospheric CO2 over the course of many years, demonstrating the impact of the burning of fossil fuels and land use changes upon the planet.

The graph constitutes the longest record of direct measurements of CO2 in the atmosphere. NOAA started its own CO2 measurements in May of 1974, and they have run in parallel with those made by the Scripps Institution ever since.

NOAA scientists Joseph Smagorinsky, Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan publish the results of the first coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model.

Their model would build the foundation for later climate simulations which in turn became a powerful tool for global warming research. Manabe and Bryan’s work, conducted at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory , also predicted how changes in the natural factors that control climate such as ocean and atmospheric currents and temperature could lead to climate change. Earlier knowledge of the oceanic and atmospheric circulation and their interactions were based purely on theory and observation.

Not many outside of computing are aware of their achievements, but in 2006, the journal Nature cited GFDL’s original climate model among other breakthroughs offsite link in their list of milestones in scientific computing which have had a profound effect on society, along with innovations such as the first CT scanner, the first hand-held scientific calculator, and the Internet.

Manabe won a Nobel Prize for his work on climate models in 2021. 

NOAA’s Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere program (TOGA) deploys a series of buoys across the Pacific Ocean meant to help scientists better predict tropical phenomena (like ENSO), and improve climate predictions.

The Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) buoy array was put in place after the 1982-83 El Niño —one of the three strongest on record back to 1950.

The buoy network, which now includes 70 ocean moorings and is maintained by the National Buoy Data Center , were anchored to the sea floor across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. They measure atmospheric conditions like wind speed and direction, relative humidity, and air temperature. In the water, they measure ocean temperatures at the sea surface and 10 other depths in the upper 500 meters. At four specific moorings, they also measure horizontal and/or vertical currents, as well as radiation from the sun and earth, rain, and barometric pressure.

The observations gained through the TAO array have revolutionized our understanding of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by providing insights into how heat is transferred between the western and eastern sides of the ocean basin.

Michael Mann from the University of Massachusetts publishes a paper reconstructing global temperatures over the past 1,000 years. The shape of the paper’s main graph is compared to a hockey stick, with temperature ranges remaining relatively constant but rising dramatically around 1900.

At the time of the initial paper’s release, the methodology of the “hockey stick” paper may have seemed novel to some. Mann and his fellow authors could not use historical records for the time periods before scientific instruments were developed to measure temperatures. Instead, they vetted more than 500 proxy records from the world’s oceans, including fossilized remains of plankton and microbes in sediment. They were then able to use statistical methods to determine the sea surface temperatures by using those proxy records and cross-checking them against ice core samples from the North and South poles, among other things. Proxy records were not new, but synthesizing them in one large study was still new at the time.

The research, which was published in Nature offsite link , was referenced in a 2001 UN climate report offsite link , which stated offsite link that “new analyses of proxy data for the Northern Hemisphere indicate that the increase in temperature in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1,000 years.”

As we move into the future, climate research will no doubt continue to grow and continue to expand our understanding of the earth’s changing atmosphere and ocean, and the impacts of climate change on the ecosystems all around us. In the fall of 2023, NOAA made significant contributions to the creation of the Fifth National Climate Assessment  which was released by the U.S. Global Change Research Program on November 14, 2023. NOAA will continue to play a central role in climate work.

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Historians and Climate Change

Sam White | Oct 1, 2012

Editor's Note: The editor very much regrets that due to his oversight, the October 2012   Perspectives on History  carried an uncorrected draft of this essay—which did not show the revisions that had been made by the author. Readers should treat the following digital version as the correct version.

In January 2012, the AHA annual conference hosted over 250 panels covering a vast array of topics, from gender to empire to the Obama presidency. Many considered contemporary concerns in pursuit of the profession’s long-held goal to make history meaningful to the present. Still, not a single panel or meeting—and very few papers—addressed arguably the most pressing issue of the century.

When it comes to public discussion of climate change, historians are nearly invisible. Even within academic communities, climate and history rarely mix. Despite recent progress, the subject remains a small specialty among environmental historians, with no journal and few conferences of its own. Both inside and outside universities, what most people know about climate and history comes from a handful of popular works by non-historians.

This neglect is unfortunate, if not altogether surprising. Climate change is usually presented as something new, controversial, and highly technical. Historians may feel they have little to contribute and be put off by the complexities of climate science, choosing instead to leave the subject to “experts.”

This attitude risks sidelining historians on a crucial issue about which we have much to contribute. Climate change is not an abstract science beyond the reach of our discipline. Anthropogenic climate change has been with us for at least decades and possibly millennia; natural climate fluctuations predate human history; and the politics and policy of climate change have their parallels in previous environmental and social issues.

This article outlines some ways historians can incorporate climate into their teaching and research, and how we might contribute to discussions on climate change. Climate science can present real but manageable technical obstacles for non-specialists; the article thus concludes with resources for interested historians new to the field.

Putting Climate into the Picture

Less than a decade ago, it was still common to hear blanket dismissals of any historical work on climate as mere “determinism.” That attitude has begun to change. Rising concern over global warming has made climate simply too important to ignore, forcing us to think more creatively about its place in history. Present developments demonstrate that climate events have serious human consequences, and that nothing is automatic about acknowledging or adapting to climatic change. If we can accept that climate influences but does not determine the future, then surely we can analyze its role in the past without succumbing to or being accused of determinism.

Remarkable advances in climate modeling and reconstruction also allow us to discuss climate in history with unprecedented precision and confidence. Studies using proxy data (such as tree rings and ice cores), phenology (such as the dates of harvests), and written records (such as journals and ship logs) have multiplied exponentially. We can now see past and present climate not just as big shifts in averages but as specific events and patterns in particular regions over decades, years, even seasons.

This new data and perspective present historians with a challenge to integrate climate into the historical picture. For most, that challenge begins with simply recognizing climate in the period and region under study. Terms such as “Little Ice Age” and “Medieval Warm” are increasingly familiar, but are also an imperfect guide to particular times and places. Historians often remain unaware of even major climate events in their areas of specialty. Unfortunately, no one-stop resource for past climate reconstructions exists, but useful websites and references are available (see sidebar).

In addition, historians should consider how people in their area of specialty experienced both ordinary and extraordinary weather. Though climate fluctuations of recent centuries were smaller than the rapid warming we can expect in the coming decades, historical populations, especially agrarian societies, were more reliant on stable weather patterns and more exposed to unexpected changes and natural disasters. Their experiences can extend and enrich discussions of present vulnerabilities, adaptability, and resilience.

Learning and Teaching from Climate Change

Integrating climate into history should present historians with more opportunities than obstacles. Even in well-covered fields, such as colonial America, applying new data from climate studies offers researchers a rare chance at conducting cutting-edge research. Previously unknown or unappreciated climate phenomena can supply novel perspectives and explanations for major historical developments, as in recent discussions of the “general crisis of the seventeenth century” from Western Europe to China. 1

Nor should historians neglect the contributions they can make to climate science. Climate reconstructions benefit from written observations gathered by historians and geographers, and much more remains to be collected. Historians should not be afraid to reach out to colleagues in the climate sciences to discuss how we might use their data more effectively and what we might offer them in return.

Furthermore, with the acceleration of climate change, historians have the chance to chronicle a major world-changing development firsthand. Human-induced global warming is no longer just a theory but an established event, and because no end is in sight to climate change, there seems little point in waiting to write its history.

Even historians uninvolved in climate-related research may consider how to incorporate climate into their classes. Environmental historians have an important role to play, not only in addressing the effects of climate change but also in placing the so-called climate debate in the framework of previous environmental policy and politics. But historians in all fields possess insights and examples from the past valuable to the present.

Public opinion often places an arbitrary distinction between scientific “theory” and historical “fact.” Unfair and inaccurate as that distinction may be, it reminds us that when it comes to climate change, most people are still grasping for a tangible understanding of what otherwise seems a mere abstraction. While history does not offer perfect facts and tidy explanations, it can convey human experiences of a changing climate and extreme events. A good anecdote or narrative can be more enlightening and persuasive than any number of quantitative studies.

Lessons from the Past?

Historians willing to tackle climate change will gain, at the very least, a new tool in their historical toolbox and a new topic for ambitious PhDs. At most, we could become real partners in dealing with the challenges that lie ahead. Just as generals might look to military history to plan the next conflict, and economists to past economic disasters to help shape policy, so history could become an integral part of the response to climate change. Historians could also reach an educated public otherwise put off by the complexities or contrived controversy that surrounds climate science.

As William Cronon once wrote of environmental history, the lessons we offer may look more like parables than policy prescriptions. Some patterns already seem clear: that the greatest impacts come from variability and extremes, for instance, not just averages; that we need to pay most attention to the poorest populations and most marginal land; that climate-induced migration can present the greatest risks; that cities concentrate vulnerabilities but also the resources for adaptation; and so on. Time and further research will no doubt add to the list. With an issue of this scale, it seems the least we can do.

Sam White is assistant professor of global environmental history at Oberlin College and author of The Climate of Rebellion in the Early Modern Ottoman Empire (New York: Cambridge Univ. Press, 2011).

1. See the forum on the "General Crisis" in the American Historical Review 113:4 (October 2008), 1029–99.

Select Resources for Climate and History

Climate History Network : a site of links, resources, and news for climate and history.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Paleoclimate Data Center offers links to open-access climate reconstructions from written and physical evidence: .

The Yale Project on Climate Change Communication publishes studies on public understanding and perception of climate change and resources for educators: environment.

Website of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change with reports available free online.

A model syllabus from the British Higher Education Academy for historians to engage with climate change issues.

Wolfgang Behringer, A Cultural History of Climate (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2010); a simple overview focusing on Europe in the Little Ice Age.

Mark Carey, In the Shadow of Melting Glaciers: Climate Change and Andean Society (New York: Oxford University Press, 2010); one of the first histories of global warming; examines impacts and adaptations in Peru.

James Roger Fleming, Fixing the Sky: The Checkered History of Weather and Climate Control (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010); a thought-provoking history from rain-dances to modern geoengineering.

William C. Jordan, The Great Famine: Northern Europe in the Early Fourteenth Century (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1996); a classic case study of a climate-led disaster.

William F. Ruddiman, Plows, Plagues, and Petroleum: How Humans Took Control of Climate (Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2005); a controversial thesis that humans have been altering climate for millennia; very readable.

Spencer Weart, The Discovery of Global Warming , revised edition. (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2008); a concise readable history of modern climate science and global warming politics.

Journals and Other Publications

No standard journal for climate and history exists. Leading research frequently appears in short format in the major scientific periodicals Science , and Nature , sometimes accompanied by helpful, nontechnical perspective and review articles.The journal  Climatic Change  includes full-length technical articles of climate reconstructions from written and physical evidence, and  WIREs Climate Change publishes advanced reviews on climate change topics.

Tags: Scholarly Communication Environmental History Public History

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Science News

Abdulhamid Hosbas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Century of Science: Theme

Our climate change crisis

The climate change emergency.

Even in a world increasingly battered by weather extremes, the summer 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest stood out. For several days in late June, cities such as Vancouver, Portland and Seattle baked in record temperatures that killed hundreds of people. On June 29 Lytton, a village in British Columbia, set an all-time heat record for Canada, at 121° Fahrenheit (49.6° Celsius); the next day, the village was incinerated by a wildfire.

Within a week, an international group of scientists had analyzed this extreme heat and concluded it would have been virtually impossible without climate change caused by humans. The planet’s average surface temperature has risen by at least 1.1 degree Celsius since preindustrial levels of 1850–1900 — because people are loading the atmosphere with heat-trapping gases produced during the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and gas, and from cutting down forests.

A little over 1 degree of warming may not sound like a lot. But it has already been enough to fundamentally transform how energy flows around the planet. The pace of change is accelerating, and the consequences are everywhere. Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting, raising sea levels and flooding low-lying island nations and coastal cities. Drought is parching farmlands and the rivers that feed them. Wildfires are raging. Rains are becoming more intense, and weather patterns are shifting .

The roots of understanding this climate emergency trace back more than a century and a half. But it wasn’t until the 1950s that scientists began the detailed measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide that would prove how much carbon is pouring from human activities. Beginning in the 1960s, researchers began developing comprehensive computer models that now illuminate the severity of the changes ahead.

Global average temperature change, 1850–2021

Long-term climate datasets show that Earth’s average surface temperature (combined land and ocean) has increased by more than 1 degree Celsius since preindustrial times. Temperature change is the difference from the 1850–1900 average.

Today we know that climate change and its consequences are real, and we are responsible. The emissions that people have been putting into the air for centuries — the emissions that made long-distance travel, economic growth and our material lives possible — have put us squarely on a warming trajectory . Only drastic cuts in carbon emissions, backed by collective global will, can make a significant difference.

“What’s happening to the planet is not routine,” says Ralph Keeling, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif. “We’re in a planetary crisis.” — Alexandra Witze

Tracking a Greenland glacier

The calving front of Greenland’s Helheim Glacier, which flows toward the sea where it crumbles into icebergs, held roughly the same position from the 1970s until 2001 (left, the calving front is to the far right of the image). But by 2005 (right), it had retreated 7.5 kilometers toward its source. 

The first climate scientists

One day in the 1850s, Eunice Newton Foote, an amateur scientist and women’s rights activist living in upstate New York, put two glass jars in sunlight. One contained regular air — a mix of nitrogen, oxygen and other gases including carbon dioxide — while the other contained just CO 2 . Both had thermometers in them. As the sun’s rays beat down, Foote observed that the jar of CO 2 alone heated more quickly, and was slower to cool, than the one containing plain air.

The results prompted Foote to muse on the relationship between CO 2 , the planet and heat. “An atmosphere of that gas would give to our earth a high temperature,” she wrote in an 1856 paper summarizing her findings .

Three years later, working independently and apparently unaware of Foote’s discovery, Irish physicist John Tyndall showed the same basic idea in more detail. With a set of pipes and devices to study the transmission of heat, he found that CO 2 gas, as well as water vapor, absorbed more heat than air alone. He argued that such gases would trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere, much as panes of glass trap heat in a greenhouse, and thus modulate climate. “As a dam built across a river causes a local deepening of the stream, so our atmosphere, thrown as a barrier across the terrestrial rays, produces a local heightening of the temperature at the Earth’s surface,” he wrote in 1862.

Today Tyndall is widely credited with the discovery of how what are now called greenhouse gases heat the planet, earning him a prominent place in the history of climate science. Foote faded into relative obscurity — partly because of her gender, partly because her measurements were less sensitive. Yet their findings helped kick off broader scientific exploration of how the composition of gases in Earth’s atmosphere affects global temperatures.

Carbon floods in

Humans began substantially affecting the atmosphere around the turn of the 19th century, when the Industrial Revolution took off in Britain. Factories burned tons of coal; fueled by fossil fuels, the steam engine revolutionized transportation and other industries. In the decades since, fossil fuels including oil and natural gas have been harnessed to drive a global economy. All these activities belch gases into the air.

Yet Svante Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist, wasn’t worried about the Industrial Revolution when he began thinking in the late 1800s about changes in atmospheric CO 2 levels. He was instead curious about ice ages — including whether a decrease in volcanic eruptions, which can put CO 2 into the atmosphere, would lead to a future ice age. Bored and lonely in the wake of a divorce, Arrhenius set himself to months of laborious calculations involving moisture and heat transport in the atmosphere at different zones of latitude. In 1896 he reported that halving the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere could indeed bring about an ice age — and that doubling CO 2 would raise global temperatures by around 5 to 6 degrees C.

It was a remarkably prescient finding for work that, out of necessity, had simplified Earth’s complex climate system down to just a few variables. Today, estimates for how much the planet will warm through a doubling of CO 2 — a measure known as climate sensitivity — range between 1.5 degrees and 4.5 degrees Celsius. (The range remains broad in part because scientists now incorporate their understanding of many more planetary feedbacks than were recognized in Arrhenius’ day.)  

But Arrhenius’ findings didn’t gain much traction with other scientists at the time. The climate system seemed too large, complex and inert to change in any meaningful way on a timescale that would be relevant to human society. Geologic evidence showed, for instance, that ice ages took thousands of years to start and end. What was there to worry about? And other laboratory experiments — later shown to be flawed — appeared to indicate that changing levels of CO 2 would have little impact on heat absorption in the atmosphere. Most scientists aware of the work came to believe that Arrhenius had been proved wrong.

One researcher, though, thought the idea was worth pursuing. Guy Stewart Callendar, a British engineer and amateur meteorologist, had tallied weather records over time, obsessively enough to determine that average temperatures were increasing at 147 weather stations around the globe. In 1938, in a paper in a Royal Meteorological Society journal , he linked this temperature rise to the burning of fossil fuels. Callendar estimated that fossil fuel burning had put around 150 billion metric tons of CO 2 into the atmosphere since the late 19th century.

Like many of his day, Callendar didn’t see global warming as a problem. Extra CO 2 would surely stimulate plants to grow and allow crops to be farmed in new regions. “In any case the return of the deadly glaciers should be delayed indefinitely,” he wrote. But his work revived discussions tracing back to Tyndall and Arrhenius about how the planetary system responds to changing levels of gases in the atmosphere. And it began steering the conversation toward how human activities might drive those changes.

When World War II broke out the following year, the global conflict redrew the landscape for scientific research. Hugely important wartime technologies, such as radar and the atomic bomb, set the stage for “big science” studies that brought nations together to tackle high-stakes questions of global reach. And that allowed modern climate science to emerge.

The Keeling curve and climate change

One major postwar effort was the International Geophysical Year, an 18-month push in 1957–1958 that involved a wide array of scientific field campaigns including exploration in the Arctic and Antarctica. Climate change wasn’t a high research priority during the IGY, but some scientists in California, led by Roger Revelle of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, used the funding influx to begin a project they’d long wanted to do. The goal was to measure CO 2 levels at different locations around the world, accurately and consistently.

The job fell to geochemist Charles David Keeling, who put ultraprecise CO 2 monitors in Antarctica and on the Hawaiian volcano of Mauna Loa. Funds soon ran out to maintain the Antarctic record, but the Mauna Loa measurements continued. Thus was born one of the most iconic datasets in all of science — the “Keeling curve,” which tracks the rise of atmospheric CO 2 . When Keeling began his measurements in 1958, CO 2 made up 315 parts per million of the global atmosphere. Within just a few years it became clear that the number was increasing year by year. Because plants take up CO 2 as they grow in spring and summer and release it as they decompose in fall and winter, CO 2 concentrations rose and fell each year in a sawtooth pattern — but superimposed on that pattern was a steady march upward.  

Monthly average CO 2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory

Atmospheric carbon dioxide measurements collected continuously since 1958 at Mauna Loa volcano in Hawaii show the rise due to human activities. The visible sawtooth pattern is due to seasonal plant growth: Plants take up CO 2 in the growing seasons, then release it as they decompose in fall and winter.

“The graph got flashed all over the place — it was just such a striking image,” says Ralph Keeling, who is Charles David Keeling’s son. Over the years, as the curve marched higher, “it had a really important role historically in waking people up to the problem of climate change.” The Keeling curve has been featured in countless earth science textbooks, congressional hearings and in Al Gore’s 2006 documentary on climate change, An Inconvenient Truth . Each year the curve keeps going up: In 2016 it passed 400 ppm of CO 2 in the atmosphere, as measured during its typical annual minimum in September. In 2021, the annual minimum was 413 ppm. (Before the Industrial Revolution, CO 2 levels in the atmosphere had been stable for centuries at around 280 ppm.)

Around the time that Keeling’s measurements were kicking off, Revelle also helped develop an important argument that the CO 2 from human activities was building up in Earth’s atmosphere. In 1957 he and Hans Suess, also at Scripps at the time, published a paper that traced the flow of radioactive carbon through the oceans and the atmosphere. They showed that the oceans were not capable of taking up as much CO 2 as previously thought; the implication was that much of the gas must be going into the atmosphere instead. “Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future,” Revelle and Suess wrote in the paper. It’s one of the most famous sentences in earth science history.

“Human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future.”

Here was the insight underlying modern climate science: Atmosheric CO 2 is increasing, and humans are causing the buildup. Revelle and Suess became the final piece in a puzzle dating back to Svante Arrhenius and John Tyndall.

“I tell my students that to understand the basics of climate change, you need to have the cutting-edge science of the 1860s, the cutting-edge math of the 1890s and the cutting-edge chemistry of the 1950s,” says Joshua Howe, an environmental historian at Reed College in Portland, Ore.

Environmental awareness grows

As this scientific picture began to emerge in the late 1950s, Science News was on the story. A March 1, 1958 article in Science News Letter , “Weather May Be Warming,” described a warm winter month in the Northern Hemisphere. It posits three theories, including that “carbon dioxide poured into the atmosphere by a booming industrial civilization could have caused the increase. By burning up about 100 billion tons of coal and oil since 1900, man himself may be changing the climate.” By 1972, the magazine was reporting on efforts to expand global atmospheric greenhouse gas monitoring beyond Keeling’s work; two years later, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration launched its own CO 2 monitoring network, now the biggest in the world.

Environmental awareness on other issues grew in the 1960s and 1970s. Rachel Carson catalyzed the modern U.S. environmental movement in 1962 when she published a magazine series and then a book, Silent Spring , condemning the pesticide DDT for its ecological impacts. 1970 saw the celebration of the first Earth Day , in the United States and elsewhere, and in India in 1973 a group of women led a series of widely publicized protests against deforestation. This Chipko movement explicitly linked environmental protection with protecting human communities, and helped seed other environmental movements.

The fragility of global energy supplies was also becoming more obvious through the 1970s. The United States, heavily dependent on other countries for oil imports, entered a gas shortage in 1973–74 when Arab members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut off oil supplies because of U.S. government support for Israel. The shortage prompted more people to think about the finiteness of natural resources and the possibility of overtaxing the planet. — Alexandra Witze

Climate change evidence piles up

Observational data collected throughout the second half of the 20th century helped researchers gradually build their understanding of how human activities were transforming the planet. “It was a sort of slow accretion of evidence and concern,” says historian Joshua Howe of Reed College.

Environmental records from the past, such as tree rings and ice cores, established that the current changes in climate are unusual compared with the recent past. Yet such paleoclimatology data also showed that climate has changed quickly in the deep past — driven by triggers other than human activity, but with lessons for how abrupt planetary transformations can be.

Ice cores pulled from ice sheets, such as that atop Greenland, offer some of the most telling insights for understanding past climate change. Each year snow falls atop the ice and compresses into a fresh layer of ice representing climate conditions at the time it formed. The abundance of certain forms, or isotopes, of oxygen and hydrogen in the ice allows scientists to calculate the temperature at which it formed, and air bubbles trapped within the ice reveal how much carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases were in the atmosphere at that time. So drilling down into an ice sheet is like reading the pages of a history book that go back in time the deeper you go.

Scientists began reading these pages in the early 1960s, using ice cores drilled at a U.S. military base in northwest Greenland . Contrary to expectations that past climates were stable, the cores hinted that abrupt climate shifts had happened over the last 100,000 years. By 1979, an international group of researchers was pulling another deep ice core from a second location in Greenland — and it, too, showed that abrupt climate change had occurred in the past. In the late 1980s and early 1990s a pair of European- and U.S.-led drilling projects retrieved even deeper cores from near the top of the ice sheet, pushing the record of past temperatures back a quarter of a million years.

Together with other sources of information, such as sediment cores drilled from the seafloor and molecules preserved in ancient rocks, the ice cores allowed scientists to reconstruct past temperature changes in extraordinary detail. Many of those changes happened alarmingly fast. For instance, the climate in Greenland warmed abruptly more than 20 times in the last 80,000 years, with the changes occurring in a matter of decades. More recently, a cold spell that set in around 13,000 years ago suddenly came to an end around 11,500 years ago — and temperatures in Greenland rose 10 degrees Celsius in a decade.

Evidence for such dramatic climate shifts laid to rest any lingering ideas that global climate change would be slow and unlikely to occur on a timescale that humans should worry about. “It’s an important reminder of how ‘tippy’ things can be,” says Jessica Tierney, a paleoclimatologist at the University of Arizona in Tucson.

More evidence of global change came from Earth-observing satellites, which brought a new planet-wide perspective on global warming beginning in the 1960s. From their viewpoint in the sky, satellites have measured the steady rise in global sea level — currently 3.4 millimeters per year and accelerating, as warming water expands and as ice sheets melt — as well as the rapid decline in ice left floating on the Arctic Ocean each summer at the end of the melt season. Gravity-sensing satellites have ‘weighed’ the Antarctic and Greenlandic ice sheets from above since 2002, reporting that more than 400 billion metric tons of ice are lost each year.

Temperature observations taken at weather stations around the world also confirm that we are living in the hottest years on record. The 10 warmest years since record keeping began in 1880 have all occurred since 2005. And nine of those 10 have come since 2010.

What’s more, extreme weather is hammering the planet more and more frequently. That 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest, for instance, is just a harbinger of what’s to come. — Alexandra Witze

Worrisome predictions from climate models

By the 1960s, there was no denying that the planet was warming. But understanding the consequences of those changes — including the threat to human health and well-being — would require more than observational data. Looking to the future depended on computer simulations: complex calculations of how energy flows through the planetary system. Such models of the climate system have been crucial to developing projections for what we can expect from greenhouse warming.

A first step in building climate models was to connect everyday observations of weather to the concept of forecasting future climate. During World War I, the British mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson imagined tens of thousands of meteorologists working to forecast the weather, each calculating conditions for a small part of the atmosphere but collectively piecing together a global forecast. Richardson published his work in 1922, to reviews that called the idea “of almost quixotic boldness.”

But it wasn’t until after World War II that computational power turned Richardson’s dream into reality. In the wake of the Allied victory, which relied on accurate weather forecasts for everything from planning D-Day to figuring out when and where to drop the atomic bombs, leading U.S. mathematicians acquired funding from the federal government to improve predictions. In 1950 a team led by Jule Charney, a meteorologist at the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, N.J., used the ENIAC, the first general-purpose, programmable electronic computer, to produce the first computer-driven regional weather forecast . The forecasting was slow and rudimentary, but it built on Richardson’s ideas of dividing the atmosphere into squares, or cells, and computing the weather for each of those. With the obscure title “Numerical integration of the barotropic vorticity equation,” the paper reporting the results set the stage for decades of climate modeling to follow.

By 1956 Norman Phillips, a member of Charney’s team, had produced the world’s first general circulation model, which captured how energy flows between the oceans, atmosphere and land. Phillips ran the calculations on a computer with just 5 kilobytes of memory, yet it was able to reproduce monthly and seasonal patterns in the lower atmosphere. That meant scientists could begin developing more realistic models of how the planet responds to factors such as increasing levels of greenhouse gases. The field of climate modeling was born.

The work was basic at first, because early computers simply didn’t have much computational power to simulate all aspects of the planetary system. “People thought that it was stupid to try to study this greenhouse-warming issue by three-dimensional model[s], because it cost so much computer time,” meteorologist Syukuro Manabe told physics historian Spencer Weart in a 1989 oral history .

Climate models have predicted how much ice the Ilulissat region of the Greenland ice sheet might lose by 2300 based on different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. The models are compared to 2008 (first image). In a best-case scenario, in which emissions peak by mid-century, the speed at which the glacier is sending ice out into the ocean is much lower (second image) than with a worst-case scenario, in which emissions rise at a high rate (third image).

An important breakthrough came in 1967, when Manabe and Richard Wetherald — both at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, a lab born from Charney’s group — published a paper in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences that modeled connections between Earth’s surface and atmosphere and calculated how changes in carbon dioxide would affect the planet’s temperature. Manabe and Wetherald were the first to build a computer model that captured the relevant processes that drive climate , and to accurately simulate how the Earth responds to those processes. (Manabe shared the 2021 Nobel Prize in physics for his work on climate modeling; Wetherald died in 2011.)

The rise of climate modeling allowed scientists to more accurately envision the impacts of global warming. In 1979, Charney and other experts met in Woods Hole, Mass., to try to put together a scientific consensus on what increasing levels of CO 2 would mean for the planet. They analyzed climate models from Manabe and from James Hansen of NASA. The resulting “Charney report” concluded that rising CO 2 in the atmosphere would lead to additional and significant climate change. The ocean might take up much of that heat, the scientists wrote — but “it appears that the warming will eventually occur, and the associated regional climatic changes so important to the assessment of socioeconomic consequence may well be significant.”

In the decades since, climate modeling has gotten increasingly sophisticated . Scientists have drawn up a variety of scenarios for how carbon emissions might change in the future, depending on the stringency of emissions cuts. Modelers use those scenarios to project how climate and weather will change around the globe, from hotter croplands in China to melting glaciers in the Himalayas. Climate simulations have also allowed researchers to identify the fingerprints of human impacts on extreme weather that is already happening, by comparing scenarios that include the influence of human activities with those that do not.

And as climate science firmed up and the most dramatic consequences became clear, the political battles raged. — Alexandra Witze

Climate science meets politics

With the development of climate science tracing back to the early Cold War, perhaps it shouldn’t be a surprise that the science of global warming became enmeshed in broader societal and political battles. A complex stew of political, national and business interests mired society in debates about the reality of climate change, and what to do about it, decades after the science became clear that humans are fundamentally altering the planet’s atmosphere.

Society has pulled itself together before to deal with global environmental problems, such as the Antarctic ozone hole. In 1974 chemists Mario Molina and F. Sherwood Rowland, both of the University of California, Irvine, reported that chlorofluorocarbon chemicals, used in products such as spray cans and refrigerants, caused a chain of reactions that gnawed away at the atmosphere’s protective ozone layer . The resulting ozone hole, which forms over Antarctica every spring, allows more ultraviolet radiation from the sun to make it through Earth’s atmosphere and reach the surface, where it can cause skin cancer and eye damage.

Governments ultimately worked under the auspices of the United Nations to craft the 1987 Montreal Protocol, which strictly limited the manufacture of chlorofluorocarbons . In the years following, the ozone hole began to heal. But fighting climate change would prove to be far more challenging. Chlorofluorocarbons were a suite of chemicals with relatively limited use and for which replacements could be found without too much trouble. But the greenhouse gases that cause global warming stem from a wide variety of human activities, from energy development to deforestation. And transforming entire energy sectors to reduce or eliminate carbon emissions is much more difficult than replacing a set of industrial chemicals.

In 1980, though, researchers took an important step toward banding together to synthesize the scientific understanding of climate change and bring it to the attention of international policy makers. It started at a small scientific conference in Villach, Austria. There, experts met under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, the International Council of Scientific Unions and the United Nations Environment Program to discuss the seriousness of climate change. On the train ride home from the meeting, Swedish meteorologist Bert Bolin talked with other participants about how a broader, deeper and more international analysis was needed. In 1985, a second conference was held at Villach to highlight the urgency, and in 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the IPCC, was born. Bolin was its first chairperson.

The IPCC became a highly influential and unique body. It performs no original scientific research; instead, it synthesizes and summarizes the vast literature of climate science for policy makers to consider — primarily through massive reports issued every couple of years. The first IPCC report , in 1990, predicted that the planet’s global mean temperature would rise more quickly in the following century than at any point in the last 10,000 years, due to increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Successive IPCC reports showed more and more confidence in the link between greenhouse emissions and rising global temperatures — and explored how society might mitigate and adapt to coming changes.

IPCC reports have played a key role in providing scientific information for nations discussing how to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations. This process started with the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 , which resulted in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change. Annual U.N. meetings to tackle climate change led to the first international commitments to reduce emissions, the Kyoto Protocol of 1997. Under it, developed countries committed to reduce emissions of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases. By 2007 the IPCC declared that the reality of climate warming is “unequivocal ”; the group received the Nobel Peace Prize that year along with Al Gore for their work on climate change.

The IPCC process ensured that policy makers had the best science at hand when they came to the table to discuss cutting emissions. “If you go back and look at the original U.N. framework on climate change, already you see the core of the science represented there,” says Rachel Cleetus, a climate policy expert with the Union of Concerned Scientists in Cambridge, Mass. Of course, nations did not have to abide by that science — and they often didn’t.

Throughout the 2000s and 2010s, international climate meetings discussed less hard-core science and more issues of equity. Countries such as China and India pointed out that they needed energy to develop their economies, and that nations responsible for the bulk of emissions through history, such as the United States, needed to lead the way in cutting greenhouse gases. Meanwhile, residents of some of the most vulnerable nations, such as low-lying islands that are threatened by sea level rise, gained visibility and clout at international negotiating forums. “The issues around equity have always been very uniquely challenging in this collective action problem,” says Cleetus.

By 2015, the world’s nations had made some progress on the emissions cuts laid out in the Kyoto Protocol, but it was still not enough to achieve substantial global reductions. That year, a key U.N. climate conference in Paris produced an international agreement to try to limit global warming to 2 degrees C , and preferably 1.5 degrees C, above preindustrial levels.

Every country has its own approach to the challenge of addressing climate change. In the United States, which gets approximately 80 percent of its energy from fossil fuels, sophisticated efforts to downplay and critique the science led to major delays in climate action. For decades U.S. fossil fuel companies such as ExxonMobil worked to influence politicians to take as little action on emissions reductions as possible. Working with a small group of influential scientists, this well-funded, well-orchestrated campaign took many of its tactics from earlier tobacco-industry efforts to cast doubt on the links between smoking and cancer, as historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway documented in their book Merchants of Doubt.

Perhaps the peak of U.S. climate denialism came in the late 1980s and into the 1990s — roughly a century after Swedish physical chemist Svante Arrhenius laid out the consequences of putting too much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. In 1988 NASA scientist James Hansen testified to lawmakers about the consequences of global warming. “It is already happening now,” Hansen said, summarizing what scientists had long known.

The high-profile nature of Hansen’s testimony, combined with his NASA expertise, vaulted global warming into the public eye in the United States like never before. “It really hit home with a public who could understand that there are reasons that Venus is hot and Mars is cold,” says Joshua Howe, a historian at Reed College. “And that if you use that same reasoning, we have some concerns about what is happening here on Earth.” But Hansen also kicked off a series of bitter public battles about the reality of human-caused climate change that raged for years.        

One common approach of climate skeptics was to attack the environmental data and models that underlie climate science. In 1998, scientist Michael Mann, then at the University of Massachusetts–Amherst, and colleagues published a detailed temperature record that formed the basis of what came to be known as the “hockey stick” graph, so named because the chart showed a sharp rise in temperatures (the hockey blade) at the end of a long, much flatter period (the hockey stick). Skeptics soon demanded the data and software processing tools Mann used to create the graph. Bloggers and self-proclaimed citizen scientists created a cottage industry of questioning new climate science papers under the guise of “audits.” In 2009 hackers broke into a server at the University of East Anglia, a leading climate-research hub in Norwich, England, and released more than 1,000 e-mails between climate scientists. This “Climategate” scandal purported to reveal misconduct on the part of the researchers, but several reviews largely exonerated the scientists.  

The graph that launched climate skeptic attacks

This famous graph, produced by scientist Michael Mann and colleagues, and then reproduced in a 2001 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, dramatically captures temperature change over time. Climate change skeptics made it the center of an all-out attack on climate science.

Such tactics undoubtedly succeeded in feeding politicians’ delay on climate action in the United States, most of it from Republicans. President George W. Bush withdrew the country from the Kyoto Protocol in 2001 ; Donald Trump similarly rejected the Paris accord in 2017 . As late as 2015, the chair of the Senate’s environment committee, James Inhofe of Oklahoma, brought a snowball into Congress on a cold winter’s day in order to continue his argument that human-caused global warming is a “hoax.” In Australia, a similar mix of right-wing denialism and fossil fuel interests has kept climate change commitments in flux, as prime ministers are voted in and out over fierce debates about how the nation should act on climate.

Yet other nations have moved forward. Some European countries such as Germany aggressively pursued renewable energies, such as wind and solar, while activists such as the Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg — the vanguard of a youth-action movement — pressured their governments for more.

In recent years the developing economies of China and India have taken center stage in discussions about climate action. Both nations argue that they must be allowed extra time to wean themselves off fossil fuels in order to continue economic growth. They note that historically speaking, the United States is the largest total emitter of carbon by far.

Total carbon dioxide emissions by country, 1850–2021

These 20 nations have emitted the largest cumulative amounts of carbon dioxide since 1850. Emissions are shown in in billions of metric tons and are broken down into subtotals from fossil fuel use and cement manufacturing (blue) as well as from land use and forestry (green).

China, whose annual CO 2 emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006, declared several moderate steps in 2021 to reduce emissions, including that it would stop building coal-burning power plants overseas. India announced it would aim for net-zero emissions by 2070, the first time it has set a date for this goal.

Yet such pledges continue to be criticized. At the 2021 U.N. Climate Change Conference in Glasgow, Scotland, India was globally criticized for not committing to a complete phaseout of coal — although the two top emitters, China and the United States, have not themselves committed to phasing out coal. “There is no equity in this,” says Aayushi Awasthy, an energy economist at the University of East Anglia. — Alexandra Witze

Facing a warmer future

Climate change creeps up gradually on society, except when it doesn’t. The slow increase in sea level, for instance, causes waters to lap incrementally higher at shorelines year after year. But when a big storm comes along — which may be happening more frequently due to climate change — the consequences become much more obvious. Storm surge rapidly swamps communities and wreaks disproportionate havoc. That’s why New York City installed floodgates in its subway and tunnel system in the wake of 2012’s Superstorm Sandy , and why the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu has asked Australia and New Zealand to be prepared to take in refugees fleeing from rising sea levels.

The list of climate impacts goes on and on — and in many cases, changes are coming faster than scientists had envisioned a few decades ago. The oceans are becoming more acidic as they absorb carbon dioxide, harming tiny marine organisms that build protective calcium carbonate shells and are the base of the marine food web. Warmer waters are bleaching coral reefs. Higher temperatures are driving animal and plant species into areas in which they previously did not live, increasing the risk of extinction for many. “It’s no longer about impacts in the future,” says Rachel Cleetus, a climate policy expert at the Union of Concerned Scientists. “It’s about what’s happening in the U.S. here and now, and around the world.”

No place on the planet is unaffected. In many areas, higher temperatures have led to major droughts, which dry out vegetation and provide additional fuel for wildfires such as those that have devastated Australia , the Mediterranean and western North America in recent years. The Colorado River , the source of water for tens of millions of people in the western United States , came under a water-shortage alert in 2021 for the first time in history.

Then there’s the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at more than twice the global average and communities are at the forefront of change. Permafrost is thawing, destabilizing buildings, pipelines and roads. Caribou and reindeer herders worry about the increased risk of parasites to the health of their animals. With less sea ice available to buffer the coast from storm erosion, the Inupiat village of Shishmaref, Alaska, risks crumbling into the sea. It will need to move from its sand-barrier island to the mainland .

“We know these changes are happening and that the Titanic is sinking,” says Louise Farquharson, a geomorphologist at the University of Alaska in Fairbanks who monitors permafrost and coastal change around Alaska. Like many Arctic scientists, she is working with Indigenous communities to understand the shifts they’re experiencing and what can be done when buildings start to slump and water supplies start to drain away. “A big part is just listening to community members and understanding what they’re seeing change,” she says.

All around the planet, those who depend on intact ecosystems for their survival face the greatest threat from climate change. And those with the least resources to adapt to climate change are the ones who feel it first .

“We are going to warm,” says Claudia Tebaldi, a climate scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. “There is no question about it. The only thing that we can hope to do is to warm a little more slowly.”

That’s one reason why the IPCC report released in 2021 focuses on anticipated levels of global warming. There is a big difference between the planet warming 1.5 degrees versus 2 degrees or 2.5 degrees. Consider that we are now at least 1.1 degrees above preindustrial levels of CO 2 and are already seeing dramatic shifts in climate. Given that, keeping further global temperature increases as low as possible will make a big difference in the climate impacts the planet faces. “With every fraction of a degree of warming, everything gets a little more intense,” says paleoclimatologist Jessica Tierney. “There’s no more time to beat around the bush.”

Historical and projected global temperature change

Various scenarios for how greenhouse gas emissions might change going forward help scientists predict future climate change. This graph shows the simulated historical temperature trend along with future projections of global surface temperature based on five scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Temperature change is the difference from the 1850–1900 average.

The future rests on how much nations are willing to commit to cutting emissions and whether they will stick to those commitments. It’s a geopolitical balancing act the likes of which the world has never seen.

Science can and must play a role going forward. Improved climate models will illuminate what changes are expected at the regional scale, helping officials prepare. Governments and industry have crucial parts to play as well. They can invest in technologies, such as carbon sequestration, to help decarbonize the economy and shift society toward more renewable sources of energy. “We can solve these problems — most of the tools are already there,” says Cascade Tuholske, a geographer at Columbia University. “We just have to do it.”

Huge questions remain. Do voters have the will to demand significant energy transitions from their governments? How can business and military leaders play a bigger role in driving climate action? What should be the role of low-carbon energy sources that come with downsides, such as nuclear energy ? How can developing nations achieve a better standard of living for their people while not becoming big greenhouse gas emitters? How can we keep the most vulnerable from being disproportionately harmed during extreme events, and incorporate environmental and social justice into our future?

These questions become more pressing each year, as CO 2 accumulates in our atmosphere. The planet is now at higher levels of CO 2 than at any time in the last 3 million years. Yet Ralph Keeling, keeper of the iconic Mauna Loa record tracking the rise in atmospheric CO 2 , is already optimistically thinking about how scientists would be able to detect a slowdown, should the world actually start cutting emissions by a few percent per year. “That’s what the policy makers want to see — that there’s been some large-scale impact of what they did,” he says.

At the 2021 U.N. climate meeting in Glasgow diplomats from around the world agreed to work more urgently to shift away from using fossil fuels. They did not, however, adopt targets strict enough to keep the world below a warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius. It’s been well over a century since Svante Arrhenius recognized the consequences of putting extra carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and yet world leaders have yet to pull together to avoid the most dangerous consequences of climate change.

Time is running out. — Alexandra Witze

Climate change facts

We know that climate change and its consequences are real, and we are responsible. Here’s what the science tells us.

How much has the planet warmed over the past century?

The planet’s average surface temperature has risen by at least 1.1 degree Celsius since preindustrial levels of 1850–1900.

What is causing climate change?

People are loading the atmosphere with carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping gases produced during the burning of fossil fuels, such as coal and gas, and cutting down forests.

What are some of the effects of climate change?

Ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are melting, raising sea levels and flooding low-lying island nations and coastal cities. Drought is parching farmlands and the rivers that feed them. Wildfires are raging. Rains are becoming more intense, and weather patterns are shifting.

What is the greenhouse effect?

In the 19th century, Irish physicist John Tyndall found that carbon dioxide gas, as well as water vapor, absorbed more heat than air alone. He argued that such gases would trap heat in Earth’s atmosphere, much as panes of glass trap heat in a greenhouse, and thus modulate climate.

What is the Keeling curve?

One of the most iconic datasets in all of science, the Keeling curve tracks the rise of atmospheric CO 2 . When geochemist Charles David Keeling began his measurements in 1958 on the Hawaiian volcano of Mauna Loa, CO 2 made up 315 parts per million of the global atmosphere. Each year the curve keeps going up: In 2016 it passed 400 ppm of CO 2 in the atmosphere, as measured during its typical annual minimum in September. In 2021, the annual minimum was 413 ppm.

Does it get hotter every year?

Average global temperatures fluctuate from year to year, but temperature observations taken at weather stations around the world confirm that we are living in the hottest years on record. The 10 warmest years since record keeping began in 1880 have all occurred since 2005. And nine of those 10 have come since 2010.

What countries emit the most carbon dioxide?

The United States has been the largest total emitter of carbon dioxide by far, followed by China and Russia. China’s annual CO 2 emissions surpassed those of the United States in 2006.

What places are impacted by climate change?

No place on the planet is unaffected. Higher temperatures have led to major droughts, providing fuel for wildfires such as those that have devastated Australia , the Mediterranean and western North America in recent years. The Colorado River came under a water-shortage alert in 2021 for the first time in history. In the Arctic, where temperatures are rising at more than twice the global average, permafrost is thawing, destabilizing buildings, pipelines and roads. With less sea ice available to buffer the coast from storm erosion, the Inupiat village of Shishmaref, Alaska, risks crumbling into the sea. All around the planet, those who depend on intact ecosystems for their survival face the greatest threat from climate change. And those with the least resources to adapt to climate change are the ones who feel it first .

Editor’s note: This story was published March 10, 2022.

British mathematician Lewis Fry Richardson (shown at center) proposes forecasting the weather by piecing together the calculations of tens of thousands of meteorologists working on small parts of the atmosphere.

Geochemist Charles David Keeling (shown in 1988) begins tracking the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa in Hawaii. The record, which continues through today, has become one of the most iconic datasets in all of science.

Rachel Carson (shown) publishes the book Silent Spring , raising alarm over the ecological impacts of the pesticide DDT. The book helps catalyze the modern U.S. environmental movement.

The first Earth Day, organized by U.S. senator Gaylord Nelson and graduate student Denis Hayes, is celebrated.

The first Landsat satellite launched (shown), opening the door to continuous monitoring of Earth and its features from above.

A powerful eruption from the Philippines’ Mount Pinatubo (shown) ejects millions of tons of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, temporarily cooling the planet.  

World leaders gathered (shown) at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro to address how to pursue economic development while also protecting the Earth. The meeting resulted in an international convention on climate change.

Activist Greta Thunberg initiates the “School Strike for Climate” movement by protesting outside the Swedish parliament. Soon, students around the world join a growing movement demanding action on climate change . (Activists at the 2021 U.N. Climate Change Conference are shown.)

From the archive

Climate change foreseen.

In an early mention of climate change in Science News-Letter , the predecessor of Science News , British meteorologist C.E.P. Brooks warns that present warming trends could lead to “important economic and political effects.”

IGY Brings Many Discoveries

Science News Letter lists the Top 8 accomplishments of the International Geophysical Year.

Chilling possibilities

Science News explores the tentative idea that global temperatures are cooling and that a new ice age could be imminent, which is later shown to be inaccurate.

Long Hot Future: Warmer Earth Appears Inevitable

“The planet earth will be a warmer place in the 21st century, and there is no realistic strategy that can prevent the change,” Science News reports.

Ozone and Global Warming: What to Do?

Policy makers discuss how to solve the dual problems of ozone depletion and global warming.

Looking for Mr. Greenhouse

Science writer Richard Monastersky reports on scientists’ efforts to evaluate how to connect increasing greenhouse gases and a warming climate.

World Climate Panel Charts Path for Action

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports that “the fingerprint of man in the past temperature record” is now apparent.

Animals on the Move

A warming climate means shifting ranges and ecosystem disruptions for a lot of species, Nancy Ross-Flanigan reports.

Changing climate: 10 years after ‘An Inconvenient Truth’

A decade after former vice president Al Gore releases the documentary film An Inconvenient Truth , Science News looks back at how climate science has advanced.

With nowhere to hide from rising seas, Boston prepares for a wetter future

Mary Caperton Morton reports for Science News on how Boston is taking action to prepare for rising seas.

The new UN climate change report shows there’s no time for denial or delay

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Climate change disinformation is evolving. So are efforts to fight back

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Extreme weather in 2022 showed the global impact of climate change

Heat waves, floods, wildfires and drought around the world were exacerbated by Earth’s changing climate.

It’s possible to reach net-zero carbon emissions. Here’s how

Cutting carbon dioxide emissions to curb climate change and reach net zero is possible but not easy.

The last 12 months were the hottest on record

The planet’s average temperature was about 1.3 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850–1900 average, a new report finds.

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What does history tell us about climate change?

History of climate change

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Stay up to date:, future of the environment.

Life on Earth has survived great changes – there are many species alive today, some of which thrived in global temperatures much higher than now, so many stable levels of climate can support abundant life. But  huge numbers of species went extinct from climate change . The Earth today is about 4–5°C warmer than in the last ice age, when Manhattan was under a mile of ice, so ‘small’ changes can matter greatly. Changes in climate, rather than actual levels within bounds, are what cause problems for life – adaptation is not instantaneous, as the ‘great extinctions’ emphasize.

Information from many sciences bears on the causes and consequences of both extinctions – as seen in the fossil record – and of climate change. Evidence from the composition of air trapped at the formation of rocks, the creation of coal and oil deposits from ancient tropical forests, long-run data in ice cores, and repeated glaciations revealed by movements of boulders from their origin, together reveal a vast range of past climates – from very cold to very hot (see, e.g., Hoffman and Schrag 2000 ), and from very dry to very wet.

Climate science

Many of the key ingredients of the climate picture are well understood, even though the Sun, Earth’s orbit and tilt, its atmosphere, land and worldwide ocean ‘conveyor belt’ system are complicated interacting processes. Energy balance models describe the incoming, outgoing and transfer of heat between the Sun and various levels of the atmosphere, land, and ocean, based on known physical (conservation) laws.

The four most important greenhouse gases are water vapour (H 2 O), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), and methane (CH 4 ), of which the first two are fundamental to life. The science of the effects of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was established well before climate change became an issue. The National Academy of Sciences (2008) provides a clear explanation of why the Earth would be a frozen ball without a dense atmosphere, and also provides an excellent picture of how greenhouse gases receive and radiate at different wavelengths between ultraviolet and infrared, as well as their recent relative importance.

All four greenhouse gases are increasing at different rates from human activity, and have been since the origins of agriculture around 10,000–12,000 years ago, slowly at first and now much more rapidly. Such increases matter as they change the climate.

Climate change and 500 million years of extinctions

The fossil record reveals a background rate of extinctions, with the ‘timeline’ erupting at major geological boundaries. Figure 1 shows marine extinctions, where Cm=Cambrian; O=Ordovician; S=Silurian; D=Devonian; C=Carboniferous; P=Permian; Tr=Triassic; J=Jurassic; and K=Cretaceous.

Figure 1 . Marine animal genera extinctions (percentage), millions of years ago

Source: Wikipedia.

The first mass extinction after the Cambrian occurred roughly 440 million years ago, probably due to global cooling (all dates are rounded here for simplicity). The second at about 375 million years ago followed the rapid spread of plant life on land, which reduced atmospheric CO 2  by photosynthesis, so again led to cooling. The third and worst, at the Permian–Triassic (P/Tr) boundary about 250 million years ago, eliminated around 80–90% of ocean dwellers, and 70% of plants, animals, and insects (see Erwin 1996, 2006). Temperatures ended about 6°C higher than today, possibly from methane released in relatively shallow seas by magma flows creating the Siberian Traps (see Heydari et al. 2008 and Ward 2006 ).

The fourth extinction about 200 million years ago opened the ecological niche for dinosaurs in the Jurassic, possibly by release of gas hydrates inducing global warming. The fifth, and best known, major extinction occurred at the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K/T) boundary, roughly 60 million years ago when most dinosaurs (other than avian descendants) went extinct. It is plausibly attributed to an extra-terrestrial impact inducing rapid climate changes, although the formation of the Deccan Traps in India may also have played a role, with temperatures about 4°C higher than today (see Prothero 2008 ).

Mayhew  et al.  (2009) show that global biodiversity for both terrestrial and marine environments was related to sea-surface temperature, with biodiversity being relatively low during warm periods (also see Clarke 1993 ). All five mass extinctions are associated with climate change. A possible mechanism for warming extinctions being drastic is that the chemocline between oxygenated water above and anoxic water below rises with temperature (see, e.g., Riccardi  et al.  2007 ). When the chemocline reaches the surface, archaea and anaerobic bacteria, such as green sulfur bacteria, proliferate and generate hydrogen sulfide (H 2 S), with toxicity comparable to hydrogen cyanide.

There is carbon isotopic evidence for the chemocline’s upward excursion during the end-Permian extinction, with a large increase in phototrophic sulfur bacteria replacing algae and cyanobacteria, consistent with huge loss of ocean life. As with CO 2 , hydrogen sulfide is heavier than air, so has a tendency to accumulate on the surface. The recent behaviour of the Black Sea reveals how quickly the chemocline can rise and the anoxic layer reach the surface, although that was due to fertiliser run-off, not global warming per se, so was more easily corrected (see Mee 2006 ).

Present evidence: Greenhouse gas increases

What is the evidence for the accumulation of CO 2  equivalents in the atmosphere? Records at Mauna Loa in Hawaii from 1958 on by Charles Keeling show an increasing trend in CO 2 , with large seasonal variations, as seen in Figure 2 (a) (in parts per million, ppm), where panel (b) records the upward trend in annual changes in CO 2 , (c) shows global mean surface temperature deviations, and (d) shows ocean heat content deviations for 0–700 meters.

Figure 2 . (a) Mauna Loa CO 2  data; (b) annual changes in CO 2 ; (c) surface temperature; (d) ocean heat

Sources: CO 2  – US Weather Bureau and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; temperature – Hansen et al. (2010); ocean heat content – Levitus et al. (2009).

Atmospheric CO 2  levels of 172–300 ppm found in deep ice cores for the past 800,000 years now exceed 400 ppm (see Scripps CO 2  Program 2010 ). Atmospheric methane has also doubled over that time (see Loulergue et al. 2008 ), with large recent increases in nitrous oxide as noted above. The atmosphere is a crucial blanket for life, but it is a thin one, as Figure 3 highlights.

Figure 3 . The rising Sun highlights Earth’s thin layer of atmosphere

Source: NASA/SPL photo from the International Space Station.

Its composition can be changed by any steady accretion of gases (see, e.g., National Academy of Sciences 2008) .

As a consequence, worldwide temperatures are slowly rising on a high-variance stochastic trend, buffeted by many influences as Figure 2 (c) shows (see Met Office 2008 and Pretis and Allen 2013 ). The ocean heat content is also rising. Both trends are consistent with the increased melting of Arctic ice. While oceans absorb CO 2  and can probably absorb more (as can forests), that has adverse effects for marine life (see Stone 2007 ) – acidification slows the growth of plankton and invertebrates, which are basic to the ocean food chain. Lower pH levels could prevent diatoms and coral reefs from forming their calcium carbonate shells.

Moreover, while oceans absorb CO 2  initially, some leaks back into the atmosphere – think sparkling water left unsealed. Since human activity is clearly responsible for the additional emissions, it is responsible for the ensuing temperature changes, accompanied by an increased rate of extinction (see WWF 2014 ).

Possible roles for economic analysis

There is a vast literature of economic analyses relevant to many aspects of climate change (see Goulder and Pizer 2006 for an overview). A key aspect is that there are uncertainties about the long-run evolution of climate, its relation to great extinctions, and present evidence about how rapidly global temperature changes respond to greenhouse gases – there are many ‘unknown unknowns’ (see, e.g., Weitzman 2009 and Ceronsky  et al.  2011 ). But if you are unsure whether a basket covered with a cloth really has a solid base, be concerned about putting all your eggs in it – there are potentially serious risks to many life forms on Earth, so the economics of climate-change abatement matters.

Sudden changes are not just a more rapid version of gradual change, consistent with evidence from past great extinctions; rather, different forms of analysis are needed, as discussed in Hendry and Mizon (2014) . Much of the stock of atmospheric greenhouse gases will persist for millennia, so climate change is not an easily reversible process, nor are extinctions of species, which permanently change biodiversity. There are many potential ‘tipping points’ for rapid changes that would be tantamount to shifts of global temperature distributions (see Lenton et al. 2008 and Katz 2010 ). My analogy in Hendry (2011) is of a car accelerating down a long hill with no means of stopping, facing an unknown drop an unknown distance away. Do you:

(a) ‘discount the future’ to decide when to jump later;

(b) hope that a rescue will somehow appear;

(c) jump out now when you may survive at the present speed?

The drop is the potential for mass extinction if mitigation is too delayed. As the conventional mathematics of intertemporal evaluations fails when distributions shift, the choice of a ‘discount rate’ is much less relevant than either organising technological or social rescues, or starting mitigation now.

Prizes for tackling climate change

One way to stimulate the first is to create a worldwide fund for large prizes on achieving pre-defined goals – such as inexpensive carbon capture and sequestration, efficient non-carbon-producing energy systems, an organism that eats CO 2  to produce a fuel, etc. Past examples of successful, and inexpensive, prizes solving major problems are: the longitude problem, which Harrison’s chronometer solved; the Rainhill trials for which Stephenson invented his Rocket; or more recently, the  Darpa Grand Challenge prize  for a robotic vehicle crossing the Mojave Desert in less than 10 hours, which took just two years for four to finish the 241km race in that time; and the Ansari X Prize of $10m for a spacecraft to make two sub-orbital human flights, which was achieved in under a decade.

Humanity is not short of ideas, some of which may prove to be breakthrough technologies. Although patents also provide incentives for technological innovation on climate change, the ‘double externality’ stressed by Hall and Helmers (2010) (both environmental and knowledge externalities) make them less attractive, and it may prove difficult to protect intellectual property for major advances that resolve key forces driving climate change.

Past environmental negotiations

Concerning the second, social rescue, there are many relevant past negotiations about emissions reductions, most of which raised strong objections at the time with false assertions of the ‘high costs of abatement’ – yet with no notable impact on any country’s GNP. ‘Clean Air Acts’ led to major reductions in air pollution, but were accompanied by loud protests about the high costs. The so-called ‘prisoner’s dilemma in international collective action’ only holds for small countries not harming their own climate, but for Clean Air, many large countries legislated independently. Similarly for acid rain reduction from restricting sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions, although again separate country legislation faced serious opposition. Parry  et al.  (2014) highlight the potential domestic health and efficiency benefits of unilateral CO 2  reductions.

When supposedly inert chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) transpired to be destroying the ozone layer by the release of chlorine from radiation, their elimination was agreed rapidly in the 1987 Montreal Protocol, helped by production being limited to a few players, and with a small ‘Multilateral Fund’ of $160 million to assist developing countries. The ozone layer already appears to be recovering slowly, but the replacements for CFCs, hydrochlorofluorocarbons, and hydrofluorocarbons seem to be powerful greenhouse gases, and Molina et al. (2009) propose building on the Montreal Protocol to mitigate that growing problem. In each case, there were losers in old industries but beneficiaries in new, and negotiators committed to mitigating climate change should highlight the advantages for early entrants of stimulating new industries.

Tradable permits, taxes, and energy efficiency standards

The second and third, starting mitigation now, mainly differ in their speeds of implementation. The theory of auctions (witness its huge impact on the UK’s 3G auction – see Binmore and Klemperer 2002 ), mechanism design, and taxation are all well developed, and despite their reputation as ‘weapons of financial mass destruction’, there is a potential role for modern finance theory in designing options and permits.

McKibbin and Wilcoxen (2002) , for example, propose a combination of tradable permits and taxes to reduce emissions. Careful analyses of any proposals are essential to ensure that incentives are correctly aligned and reasonably costed, do not induce ‘substitution’ to least regulated areas, and don’t undermine living standards of the poorest (see Klemperer 2009 ). These are demanding, but not infeasible, requirements. Another fast impact policy is by mandating ‘best-practice’ standards for energy efficiency in transport, buildings, and appliances, as well as in all modes of energy production and distribution, with required improvements over time (see, e.g., Harvey 2014 ). Nevertheless, cumulative emissions determine temperature, so policies that reduce emissions help, but are not a complete solution (see Allen  et al.  2009 ).

Conclusions

Economic analysis offers many insights – externalities need to be either priced or regulated, and climate change is the largest ever worldwide externality. All approaches are affected by the possibility of abrupt changes and the resulting unknown uncertainty when distributions shift, making action more urgent to avoid possible future shifts. Adaptation is not meaningful if food, water and land resources become inadequate. Conversely, mitigation steps need not be costly, and could stimulate innovation. International negotiations are more likely to succeed if the largest players act first in their own counties or groups – also creating opportunities for their societies as new technologies develop.

Planet Earth will survive whatever humanity is doing – the crucial issue is the effect of climate change on its present inhabitants. It is a risky strategy to do nothing if there are potentially huge costs when the costs of initial actions are small. The obvious time to start is now, and the obvious actions are the many low-cost implementations that mitigate greenhouse gases (see Stern 2008 for a list) – just in case.

Published in collaboration with VoxEU

Author: David F. Hendry, Kt, is Director, Program in Economic Modeling, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, and Professor of Economics and Fellow of Nuffield College, Oxford University.

Image: A woman holds her baby as they walk in front of a coal-fired power plant on the outskirts of Datong, Shanxi province, November 20, 2009. REUTERS/Jason Lee

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Earth's Changing Climate

Climate change is a long-term shift in global or regional climate patterns. Often climate change refers specifically to the rise in global temperatures from the mid 20th century to present.

Earth Science, Geography, Human Geography, Physical Geography

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Climate  is the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area. Weather can change from hour to hour, day to day, month to month or even from year to year. For periods of 30 years or more, however, distinct  weather patterns occur. A  desert  might experience a rainy week, but over the long term, the region receives very little rainfall . It has a dry climate .

Because climates are mostly constant, living things can  adapt  to them. Polar bears have adapted to stay warm in  polar climates , while cacti have evolved to hold onto water in  dry climates . The  enormous  variety of life on Earth results in large part from the variety of climates that exist.

Climates do change, however—they just change very slowly, over hundreds or even thousands of years. As climates change, organisms that live in the area must adapt ,  relocate , or risk going  extinct .

Earth’s Changing Climate Earth’s climate has changed many times. For example,  fossils from the Cretaceous period (144 to 65 million years ago) show that Earth was much warmer than it is today.  Fossilized plants and animals that normally live in warm  environments have been found at much higher  latitudes than they could survive at today. For instance,  breadfruit  trees ( Artocarpus altilis ), now found on  tropical   islands , grew as far north as Greenland.

Earth has also experienced several major  ice ages —at least four in the past 500,000 years. During these periods, Earth’s  temperature   decreased , causing an  expansion  of  ice sheets and  glaciers . The most recent Ice Age began about two million years ago and peaked about 20,000 years ago. The ice caps began retreating 18,000 years ago. They have not disappeared completely, however. Their presence in Antarctica and Greenland suggests Earth is still in a sort of ice age. Many scientists believe we are in an  interglacial period , when warmer temperatures have caused the ice caps to  recede . Many centuries from now, the glaciers may advance again. Climatologists look for evidence of past climate change in many different places. Like clumsy criminals, glaciers leave many clues behind them. They scratch and  scour   rocks as they move. They deposit sediment  known as glacial till. This sediment sometimes forms mounds or ridges called  moraines . Glaciers also form elongated oval hills known as  drumlins . All of these geographic features on land that currently has no glaciers suggest that glaciers were once there. Scientists also have chemical evidence of ice ages from sediments and  sedimentary rocks . Some rocks only form from glacial material. Their presence under the ocean or on land also tells scientists that glaciers were once present in these areas. Scientists also have paleontological evidence—fossils. Fossils show what kinds of animals and plants lived in certain areas. During ice ages, organisms that are adapted to cold weather can increase their range , moving closer to the  Equator . Organisms that are adapted to warm weather may lose part of their  habitat , or even go extinct.

Climate changes occur over shorter periods, as well. For example, the so-called  Little Ice Age  lasted only a few hundred years, peaking during the 16th and 17th centuries. During this time, average global temperatures were 1 to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit) cooler than they are today.

A change of one or two degrees might not seem like a lot, but it was enough to cause some pretty massive effects. For instance, glaciers grew larger and sometimes engulfed whole mountain villages. Winters were longer than usual, limiting the growing seasons of  crops . In northern Europe, people deserted farms and villages to avoid  starvation .

One way scientists have learned about the Little Ice Age is by studying the rings of trees that are more than 300 years old. The thickness of  tree rings is related to the amount of the trees’ annual growth. This in turn is related to climate changes. During times of  drought  or cold, trees could not grow as much. The rings would be closer together.

Some climate changes are almost predictable . One example of regular climate change results from the warming of the surface waters of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming is called El Niño —The Child—because it tends to begin around Christmas. In normal years,  trade winds blow steadily across the ocean from east to west, dragging warm surface water along in the same direction. This produces a shallow layer of warm water in the eastern Pacific and a buildup of warm water in the west. Every few years, normal winds falter and ocean currents reverse. This is El Niño. Warm water deepens in the eastern Pacific. This, in turn, produces  dramatic  climate changes. Rain decreases in Australia and southern Asia, and freak storms may pound Pacific islands and the west coast of the Americas. Within a year or two, El Niño ends, and climate systems return to normal.

Natural Causes of Climate Change Climate changes happen for a variety of reasons. Some of these reasons have to do with Earth’s  atmosphere . The climate change brought by El Niño, which relies on winds and ocean currents, is an example of natural atmospheric changes. Natural climate change can also be affected by forces outside Earth’s atmosphere. For instance, the 100,000-year cycles of ice ages are probably related to changes in the tilt of Earth’s  axis  and the shape of its  orbit  around the sun. Those planetary factors change slowly over time and affect how much of the sun’s energy reaches different parts of the world in different seasons.

The impact of large  meteorites on Earth could also cause climate change . The impact of a meteor would send millions of tons of  debris  into the atmosphere . This debris would block at least some of the sun’s rays, making it cold and dark. This climate change would severely limit what organisms could survive. Many  paleontologists believe the impact of a meteor or comet contributed to the extinction of the dinosaurs .  Dinosaurs simply could not survive in a cool, dark climate . Their bodies could not adjust to the cold, and the dark limited the growth of plants on which they fed.

Plate tectonics  also play a role in climate changes. Earth’s continental plates have moved a great deal over time. More than 200 million years ago, the continents were  merged together as one giant landmass called  Pangaea . As the continents broke apart and moved, their positions on Earth changed, and so did the movements of ocean currents. Both of these changes had effects on climate. Changes in  greenhouse gases in the atmosphere also have an impact on climate change. Gases like  carbon dioxide  trap the sun’s heat in Earth’s atmosphere, causing temperatures on the surface to rise.  Volcanoes —both on land and under the ocean—release greenhouse gases, so if the eruption only reaches the troposphere the additional gases contribute to warming. However, if the eruption is powerful enough to reach the stratosphere particles reflect sunlight back into space causing periods of cooling regionally.

Human Causes of Climate Change Some human activities release greenhouse gases—burning  fossil fuels for  transportation  and  electricity , or using  technology  that increases meat production, for instance. Trees absorb carbon dioxide, so cutting down forests for  timber  or  development  contributes to the greenhouse effect . So do factories that  emit   pollutants into the atmosphere.

Many scientists are worried that these activities are causing dramatic and dangerous changes in Earth’s climate. Average temperatures around the world have risen since about 1880, when scientists began tracking them. The seven warmest years of the 20th century occurred in the 1990s. This warming trend may be a sign that the greenhouse effect is increasing because of human activity. This climate change is often referred to as “ global warming .” Global warming is often linked to the burning of fossil fuels— coal ,  oil , and  natural gas —by industries and cars. Warming is also linked to the destruction of tropical forests. The University of California Riverside and NASA estimate human activity has increased the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by about 30 percent in the past 150 years. The amount of methane , a potent greehouse gas produced by decomposing plant and animal matter, is also increasing. Increased amounts of methane in Earth’s atmosphere are usually linked to  agricultural development  and industrial technology. As economies grow, populations consume more goods and throw away more materials. Large landfills , filled with decomposing waste, release tons of methane into the atmosphere. Chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) ,  hydrochlorofluorocarbon  (HCFC), and  hydrofluorocarbon  (HFC) chemicals are used in refrigeration and aerosol sprays. These chemicals are also greenhouse gases. Many countries are working to  phase out  their use, and some have laws to prevent companies from manufacturing them.

Global Warming

As the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere rises, so does the temperature of Earth. Climatologists worry that the global temperature will increase so much that ice caps will begin melting within the next several decades . This would cause the  sea level  to rise. Coastal areas, including many low-lying islands, would be flooded. Severe climate change may bring more severe weather patterns—more  hurricanes ,  typhoons , and  tornadoes . More precipitation would fall in some places and far less in others. Regions where crops now grow could become deserts. As climates change, so do the habitats for living things. Animals that live in an area may become threatened. Many human societies depend on specific crops for food , clothing, and trade . If the climate of an area changes, the people who live there may no longer be able to grow the crops they depend on for survival. Some scientists worry that as Earth warms,  tropical diseases such as  malaria ,  West Nile virus , and  yellow fever  will expand into more  temperate  regions. The temperature will continue to rise unless preventive steps are taken. Most climatologists agree that we must reduce the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. There are many ways to do this, including:

• Drive less. Use  public transportation ,  carpool , walk, or ride a bike.
• Fly less. Airplanes produce huge amounts of greenhouse gas emissions .
• Reduce, reuse, and recycle.
• Plant a tree. Trees absorb carbon dioxide, keeping it out of the atmosphere.
• Use less electricity.
• Eat less meat. Cows are one of the biggest methane producers.
• Support alternative energy sources that don’t burn fossil fuels, such as  solar power  and  wind energy .

The climate has changed many times during Earth’s history, but the changes have occurred slowly, over thousands of years. Only since the Industrial Revolution have human activities begun to influence climate—and scientists are still working to understand what the  consequences might be.

Cool Warming Could the current phase of climate change cause another Little Ice Age? As strange as it sounds, some scientists believe it could. If melting glaciers release large amounts of freshwater into the oceans, this could disrupt the ocean conveyor belt, an important circulation system that moves seawater around the globe. Stopping this cycle could possibly cause cooling of 3 to 5 degrees Celsius (5-9 degrees Fahrenheit) in the ocean and atmosphere.

Early Squirrels The North American red squirrel has started breeding earlier in the year as a result of climate change. Food becomes available to the squirrels earlier because of warmer winters.

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Causes and Effects of Climate Change

Fossil fuels – coal, oil and gas – are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 per cent of all carbon dioxide emissions. As greenhouse gas emissions blanket the Earth, they trap the sun’s heat. This leads to global warming and climate change. The world is now warming faster than at any point in recorded history. Warmer temperatures over time are changing weather patterns and disrupting the usual balance of nature. This poses many risks to human beings and all other forms of life on Earth. 

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What Is Climate Change?

Climate change is a long-term change in the average weather patterns that have come to define Earth’s local, regional and global climates. These changes have a broad range of observed effects that are synonymous with the term.

Changes observed in Earth’s climate since the mid-20th century are driven by human activities, particularly fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere, raising Earth’s average surface temperature. Natural processes, which have been overwhelmed by human activities, can also contribute to climate change, including internal variability (e.g., cyclical ocean patterns like El Niño, La Niña and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and external forcings (e.g., volcanic activity, changes in the Sun’s energy output , variations in Earth’s orbit ).

Scientists use observations from the ground, air, and space, along with computer models , to monitor and study past, present, and future climate change. Climate data records provide evidence of climate change key indicators, such as global land and ocean temperature increases; rising sea levels; ice loss at Earth’s poles and in mountain glaciers; frequency and severity changes in extreme weather such as hurricanes, heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, floods, and precipitation; and cloud and vegetation cover changes.

“Climate change” and “global warming” are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. Similarly, the terms "weather" and "climate" are sometimes confused, though they refer to events with broadly different spatial- and timescales.

What Is Global Warming?

Global warming is the long-term heating of Earth’s surface observed since the pre-industrial period (between 1850 and 1900) due to human activities, primarily fossil fuel burning, which increases heat-trapping greenhouse gas levels in Earth’s atmosphere. This term is not interchangeable with the term "climate change."

Since the pre-industrial period, human activities are estimated to have increased Earth’s global average temperature by about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), a number that is currently increasing by more than 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) per decade. The current warming trend is unequivocally the result of human activity since the 1950s and is proceeding at an unprecedented rate over millennia.

Weather vs. Climate

“if you don’t like the weather in new england, just wait a few minutes.” - mark twain.

Weather refers to atmospheric conditions that occur locally over short periods of time—from minutes to hours or days. Familiar examples include rain, snow, clouds, winds, floods, or thunderstorms.

Climate, on the other hand, refers to the long-term (usually at least 30 years) regional or even global average of temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns over seasons, years, or decades.

Find Out More: A Guide to NASA’s Global Climate Change Website

This website provides a high-level overview of some of the known causes, effects and indications of global climate change:

Evidence. Brief descriptions of some of the key scientific observations that our planet is undergoing abrupt climate change.

Causes. A concise discussion of the primary climate change causes on our planet.

Effects. A look at some of the likely future effects of climate change, including U.S. regional effects.

Vital Signs. Graphs and animated time series showing real-time climate change data, including atmospheric carbon dioxide, global temperature, sea ice extent, and ice sheet volume.

Earth Minute. This fun video series explains various Earth science topics, including some climate change topics.

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Sea Level Change Portal. NASA's portal for an in-depth look at the science behind sea level change.

NASA’s Earth Observatory. Satellite imagery, feature articles and scientific information about our home planet, with a focus on Earth’s climate and environmental change.

Header image is of Apusiaajik Glacier, and was taken near Kulusuk, Greenland, on Aug. 26, 2018, during NASA's Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) field operations. Learn more here . Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech

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What Are the Causes of Climate Change?

We can’t fight climate change without understanding what drives it.

Low water levels at Shasta Lake, California, following a historic drought in October 2021

Andrew Innerarity/California Department of Water Resources

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At the root of climate change is the phenomenon known as the greenhouse effect , the term scientists use to describe the way that certain atmospheric gases “trap” heat that would otherwise radiate upward, from the planet’s surface, into outer space. On the one hand, we have the greenhouse effect to thank for the presence of life on earth; without it, our planet would be cold and unlivable.

But beginning in the mid- to late-19th century, human activity began pushing the greenhouse effect to new levels. The result? A planet that’s warmer right now than at any other point in human history, and getting ever warmer. This global warming has, in turn, dramatically altered natural cycles and weather patterns, with impacts that include extreme heat, protracted drought, increased flooding, more intense storms, and rising sea levels. Taken together, these miserable and sometimes deadly effects are what have come to be known as climate change .

Detailing and discussing the human causes of climate change isn’t about shaming people, or trying to make them feel guilty for their choices. It’s about defining the problem so that we can arrive at effective solutions. And we must honestly address its origins—even though it can sometimes be difficult, or even uncomfortable, to do so. Human civilization has made extraordinary productivity leaps, some of which have led to our currently overheated planet. But by harnessing that same ability to innovate and attaching it to a renewed sense of shared responsibility, we can find ways to cool the planet down, fight climate change , and chart a course toward a more just, equitable, and sustainable future.

Here’s a rough breakdown of the factors that are driving climate change.

Natural causes of climate change

Human-driven causes of climate change, transportation, electricity generation, industry & manufacturing, agriculture, oil & gas development, deforestation, our lifestyle choices.

Some amount of climate change can be attributed to natural phenomena. Over the course of Earth’s existence, volcanic eruptions , fluctuations in solar radiation , tectonic shifts , and even small changes in our orbit have all had observable effects on planetary warming and cooling patterns.

But climate records are able to show that today’s global warming—particularly what has occured since the start of the industrial revolution—is happening much, much faster than ever before. According to NASA , “[t]hese natural causes are still in play today, but their influence is too small or they occur too slowly to explain the rapid warming seen in recent decades.” And the records refute the misinformation that natural causes are the main culprits behind climate change, as some in the fossil fuel industry and conservative think tanks would like us to believe.

Chemical manufacturing plants emit fumes along Onondaga Lake in Solvay, New York, in the late-19th century. Over time, industrial development severely polluted the local area.

Library of Congress, Prints & Photographs Division, Detroit Publishing Company Collection

Scientists agree that human activity is the primary driver of what we’re seeing now worldwide. (This type of climate change is sometimes referred to as anthropogenic , which is just a way of saying “caused by human beings.”) The unchecked burning of fossil fuels over the past 150 years has drastically increased the presence of atmospheric greenhouse gases, most notably carbon dioxide . At the same time, logging and development have led to the widespread destruction of forests, wetlands, and other carbon sinks —natural resources that store carbon dioxide and prevent it from being released into the atmosphere.

Right now, atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, methane , and nitrous oxide are the highest they’ve been in the last 800,000 years . Some greenhouse gases, like hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HFCs) , do not even exist in nature. By continuously pumping these gases into the air, we helped raise the earth’s average temperature by about 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit during the 20th century—which has brought us to our current era of deadly, and increasingly routine, weather extremes. And it’s important to note that while climate change affects everyone in some way, it doesn’t do so equally: All over the world, people of color and those living in economically disadvantaged or politically marginalized communities bear a much larger burden , despite the fact that these communities play a much smaller role in warming the planet.

Our ways of generating power for electricity, heat, and transportation, our built environment and industries, our ways of interacting with the land, and our consumption habits together serve as the primary drivers of climate change. While the percentages of greenhouse gases stemming from each source may fluctuate, the sources themselves remain relatively consistent.

Traffic on Interstate 25 in Denver

David Parsons/iStock

The cars, trucks, ships, and planes that we use to transport ourselves and our goods are a major source of global greenhouse gas emissions. (In the United States, they actually constitute the single-largest source.) Burning petroleum-based fuel in combustion engines releases massive amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Passenger cars account for 41 percent of those emissions, with the typical passenger vehicle emitting about 4.6 metric tons of carbon dioxide per year. And trucks are by far the worst polluters on the road. They run almost constantly and largely burn diesel fuel, which is why, despite accounting for just 4 percent of U.S. vehicles, trucks emit 23 percent of all greenhouse gas emissions from transportation.

We can get these numbers down, but we need large-scale investments to get more zero-emission vehicles on the road and increase access to reliable public transit .

As of 2021, nearly 60 percent of the electricity used in the United States comes from the burning of coal, natural gas , and other fossil fuels . Because of the electricity sector’s historical investment in these dirty energy sources, it accounts for roughly a quarter of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, including carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.

That history is undergoing a major change, however: As renewable energy sources like wind and solar become cheaper and easier to develop, utilities are turning to them more frequently. The percentage of clean, renewable energy is growing every year—and with that growth comes a corresponding decrease in pollutants.

But while things are moving in the right direction, they’re not moving fast enough. If we’re to keep the earth’s average temperature from rising more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, which scientists say we must do in order to avoid the very worst impacts of climate change, we have to take every available opportunity to speed up the shift from fossil fuels to renewables in the electricity sector.

The factories and facilities that produce our goods are significant sources of greenhouse gases; in 2020, they were responsible for fully 24 percent of U.S. emissions. Most industrial emissions come from the production of a small set of carbon-intensive products, including basic chemicals, iron and steel, cement and concrete, aluminum, glass, and paper. To manufacture the building blocks of our infrastructure and the vast array of products demanded by consumers, producers must burn through massive amounts of energy. In addition, older facilities in need of efficiency upgrades frequently leak these gases, along with other harmful forms of air pollution .

One way to reduce the industrial sector’s carbon footprint is to increase efficiency through improved technology and stronger enforcement of pollution regulations. Another way is to rethink our attitudes toward consumption (particularly when it comes to plastics ), recycling , and reuse —so that we don’t need to be producing so many things in the first place. And, since major infrastructure projects rely heavily on industries like cement manufacturing (responsible for 7 percent of annual global greenhouse gas), policy mandates must leverage the government’s purchasing power to grow markets for cleaner alternatives, and ensure that state and federal agencies procure more sustainably produced materials for these projects. Hastening the switch from fossil fuels to renewables will also go a long way toward cleaning up this energy-intensive sector.

The advent of modern, industrialized agriculture has significantly altered the vital but delicate relationship between soil and the climate—so much so that agriculture accounted for 11 percent of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions in 2020. This sector is especially notorious for giving off large amounts of nitrous oxide and methane, powerful gases that are highly effective at trapping heat. The widespread adoption of chemical fertilizers , combined with certain crop-management practices that prioritize high yields over soil health, means that agriculture accounts for nearly three-quarters of the nitrous oxide found in our atmosphere. Meanwhile, large-scale industrialized livestock production continues to be a significant source of atmospheric methane, which is emitted as a function of the digestive processes of cattle and other ruminants.

Stephen McComber holds a squash harvested from the community garden in Kahnawà:ke Mohawk Territory, a First Nations reserve of the Mohawks of Kahnawà:ke, in Quebec.

Stephanie Foden for NRDC

But farmers and ranchers—especially Indigenous farmers, who have been tending the land according to sustainable principles —are reminding us that there’s more than one way to feed the world. By adopting the philosophies and methods associated with regenerative agriculture , we can slash emissions from this sector while boosting our soil’s capacity for sequestering carbon from the atmosphere, and producing healthier foods.

A decades-old, plugged and abandoned oil well at a cattle ranch in Crane County, Texas, in June 2021, when it was found to be leaking brine water

Matthew Busch/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Oil and gas lead to emissions at every stage of their production and consumption—not only when they’re burned as fuel, but just as soon as we drill a hole in the ground to begin extracting them. Fossil fuel development is a major source of methane, which invariably leaks from oil and gas operations : drilling, fracking , transporting, and refining. And while methane isn’t as prevalent a greenhouse gas as carbon dioxide, it’s many times more potent at trapping heat during the first 20 years of its release into the atmosphere. Even abandoned and inoperative wells—sometimes known as “orphaned” wells —leak methane. More than 3 million of these old, defunct wells are spread across the country and were responsible for emitting more than 280,000 metric tons of methane in 2018.

Unsurprisingly, given how much time we spend inside of them, our buildings—both residential and commercial—emit a lot of greenhouse gases. Heating, cooling, cooking, running appliances, and maintaining other building-wide systems accounted for 13 percent of U.S. emissions overall in 2020. And even worse, some 30 percent of the energy used in U.S. buildings goes to waste, on average.

Every day, great strides are being made in energy efficiency , allowing us to achieve the same (or even better) results with less energy expended. By requiring all new buildings to employ the highest efficiency standards—and by retrofitting existing buildings with the most up-to-date technologies—we’ll reduce emissions in this sector while simultaneously making it easier and cheaper for people in all communities to heat, cool, and power their homes: a top goal of the environmental justice movement.

An aerial view of clearcut sections of boreal forest near Dryden in Northwestern Ontario, Canada, in June 2019

River Jordan for NRDC

Another way we’re injecting more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere is through the clearcutting of the world’s forests and the degradation of its wetlands . Vegetation and soil store carbon by keeping it at ground level or underground. Through logging and other forms of development, we’re cutting down or digging up vegetative biomass and releasing all of its stored carbon into the air. In Canada’s boreal forest alone, clearcutting is responsible for releasing more than 25 million metric tons of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each year—the emissions equivalent of 5.5 million vehicles.

Government policies that emphasize sustainable practices, combined with shifts in consumer behavior , are needed to offset this dynamic and restore the planet’s carbon sinks .

The Yellow Line Metro train crossing over the Potomac River from Washington, DC, to Virginia on June 24, 2022

Sarah Baker

The decisions we make every day as individuals—which products we purchase, how much electricity we consume, how we get around, what we eat (and what we don’t—food waste makes up 4 percent of total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions)—add up to our single, unique carbon footprints . Put all of them together and you end up with humanity’s collective carbon footprint. The first step in reducing it is for us to acknowledge the uneven distribution of climate change’s causes and effects, and for those who bear the greatest responsibility for global greenhouse gas emissions to slash them without bringing further harm to those who are least responsible .

The big, climate-affecting decisions made by utilities, industries, and governments are shaped, in the end, by us : our needs, our demands, our priorities. Winning the fight against climate change will require us to rethink those needs, ramp up those demands , and reset those priorities. Short-term thinking of the sort that enriches corporations must give way to long-term planning that strengthens communities and secures the health and safety of all people. And our definition of climate advocacy must go beyond slogans and move, swiftly, into the realm of collective action—fueled by righteous anger, perhaps, but guided by faith in science and in our ability to change the world for the better.

If our activity has brought us to this dangerous point in human history, breaking old patterns can help us find a way out.

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A review of the global climate change impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures

Kashif abbass.

1 School of Economics and Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim

2 Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Chemical Pollution Control and Resources Reuse, School of Environmental and Biological Engineering, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei 200, Nanjing, 210094 People’s Republic of China

Huaming Song

Muntasir murshed.

3 School of Business and Economics, North South University, Dhaka, 1229 Bangladesh

4 Department of Journalism, Media and Communications, Daffodil International University, Dhaka, Bangladesh

Haider Mahmood

5 Department of Finance, College of Business Administration, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 173, Alkharj, 11942 Saudi Arabia

Ijaz Younis

Associated data.

Data sources and relevant links are provided in the paper to access data.

Climate change is a long-lasting change in the weather arrays across tropics to polls. It is a global threat that has embarked on to put stress on various sectors. This study is aimed to conceptually engineer how climate variability is deteriorating the sustainability of diverse sectors worldwide. Specifically, the agricultural sector’s vulnerability is a globally concerning scenario, as sufficient production and food supplies are threatened due to irreversible weather fluctuations. In turn, it is challenging the global feeding patterns, particularly in countries with agriculture as an integral part of their economy and total productivity. Climate change has also put the integrity and survival of many species at stake due to shifts in optimum temperature ranges, thereby accelerating biodiversity loss by progressively changing the ecosystem structures. Climate variations increase the likelihood of particular food and waterborne and vector-borne diseases, and a recent example is a coronavirus pandemic. Climate change also accelerates the enigma of antimicrobial resistance, another threat to human health due to the increasing incidence of resistant pathogenic infections. Besides, the global tourism industry is devastated as climate change impacts unfavorable tourism spots. The methodology investigates hypothetical scenarios of climate variability and attempts to describe the quality of evidence to facilitate readers’ careful, critical engagement. Secondary data is used to identify sustainability issues such as environmental, social, and economic viability. To better understand the problem, gathered the information in this report from various media outlets, research agencies, policy papers, newspapers, and other sources. This review is a sectorial assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation approaches worldwide in the aforementioned sectors and the associated economic costs. According to the findings, government involvement is necessary for the country’s long-term development through strict accountability of resources and regulations implemented in the past to generate cutting-edge climate policy. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of climate change must be of the utmost importance, and hence, this global threat requires global commitment to address its dreadful implications to ensure global sustenance.

Introduction

Worldwide observed and anticipated climatic changes for the twenty-first century and global warming are significant global changes that have been encountered during the past 65 years. Climate change (CC) is an inter-governmental complex challenge globally with its influence over various components of the ecological, environmental, socio-political, and socio-economic disciplines (Adger et al.  2005 ; Leal Filho et al.  2021 ; Feliciano et al.  2022 ). Climate change involves heightened temperatures across numerous worlds (Battisti and Naylor  2009 ; Schuurmans  2021 ; Weisheimer and Palmer  2005 ; Yadav et al.  2015 ). With the onset of the industrial revolution, the problem of earth climate was amplified manifold (Leppänen et al.  2014 ). It is reported that the immediate attention and due steps might increase the probability of overcoming its devastating impacts. It is not plausible to interpret the exact consequences of climate change (CC) on a sectoral basis (Izaguirre et al.  2021 ; Jurgilevich et al.  2017 ), which is evident by the emerging level of recognition plus the inclusion of climatic uncertainties at both local and national level of policymaking (Ayers et al.  2014 ).

Climate change is characterized based on the comprehensive long-haul temperature and precipitation trends and other components such as pressure and humidity level in the surrounding environment. Besides, the irregular weather patterns, retreating of global ice sheets, and the corresponding elevated sea level rise are among the most renowned international and domestic effects of climate change (Lipczynska-Kochany  2018 ; Michel et al.  2021 ; Murshed and Dao 2020 ). Before the industrial revolution, natural sources, including volcanoes, forest fires, and seismic activities, were regarded as the distinct sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, and H 2 O into the atmosphere (Murshed et al. 2020 ; Hussain et al.  2020 ; Sovacool et al.  2021 ; Usman and Balsalobre-Lorente 2022 ; Murshed 2022 ). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) struck a major agreement to tackle climate change and accelerate and intensify the actions and investments required for a sustainable low-carbon future at Conference of the Parties (COP-21) in Paris on December 12, 2015. The Paris Agreement expands on the Convention by bringing all nations together for the first time in a single cause to undertake ambitious measures to prevent climate change and adapt to its impacts, with increased funding to assist developing countries in doing so. As so, it marks a turning point in the global climate fight. The core goal of the Paris Agreement is to improve the global response to the threat of climate change by keeping the global temperature rise this century well below 2 °C over pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5° C (Sharma et al. 2020 ; Sharif et al. 2020 ; Chien et al. 2021 .

Furthermore, the agreement aspires to strengthen nations’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and align financing flows with low GHG emissions and climate-resilient paths (Shahbaz et al. 2019 ; Anwar et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2022a ). To achieve these lofty goals, adequate financial resources must be mobilized and provided, as well as a new technology framework and expanded capacity building, allowing developing countries and the most vulnerable countries to act under their respective national objectives. The agreement also establishes a more transparent action and support mechanism. All Parties are required by the Paris Agreement to do their best through “nationally determined contributions” (NDCs) and to strengthen these efforts in the coming years (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2020 ). It includes obligations that all Parties regularly report on their emissions and implementation activities. A global stock-take will be conducted every five years to review collective progress toward the agreement’s goal and inform the Parties’ future individual actions. The Paris Agreement became available for signature on April 22, 2016, Earth Day, at the United Nations Headquarters in New York. On November 4, 2016, it went into effect 30 days after the so-called double threshold was met (ratification by 55 nations accounting for at least 55% of world emissions). More countries have ratified and continue to ratify the agreement since then, bringing 125 Parties in early 2017. To fully operationalize the Paris Agreement, a work program was initiated in Paris to define mechanisms, processes, and recommendations on a wide range of concerns (Murshed et al. 2021 ). Since 2016, Parties have collaborated in subsidiary bodies (APA, SBSTA, and SBI) and numerous formed entities. The Conference of the Parties functioning as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) convened for the first time in November 2016 in Marrakesh in conjunction with COP22 and made its first two resolutions. The work plan is scheduled to be finished by 2018. Some mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the emission in the prospective of Paris agreement are following firstly, a long-term goal of keeping the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, secondly, to aim to limit the rise to 1.5 °C, since this would significantly reduce risks and the impacts of climate change, thirdly, on the need for global emissions to peak as soon as possible, recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries, lastly, to undertake rapid reductions after that under the best available science, to achieve a balance between emissions and removals in the second half of the century. On the other side, some adaptation strategies are; strengthening societies’ ability to deal with the effects of climate change and to continue & expand international assistance for developing nations’ adaptation.

However, anthropogenic activities are currently regarded as most accountable for CC (Murshed et al. 2022 ). Apart from the industrial revolution, other anthropogenic activities include excessive agricultural operations, which further involve the high use of fuel-based mechanization, burning of agricultural residues, burning fossil fuels, deforestation, national and domestic transportation sectors, etc. (Huang et al.  2016 ). Consequently, these anthropogenic activities lead to climatic catastrophes, damaging local and global infrastructure, human health, and total productivity. Energy consumption has mounted GHGs levels concerning warming temperatures as most of the energy production in developing countries comes from fossil fuels (Balsalobre-Lorente et al. 2022 ; Usman et al. 2022b ; Abbass et al. 2021a ; Ishikawa-Ishiwata and Furuya  2022 ).

This review aims to highlight the effects of climate change in a socio-scientific aspect by analyzing the existing literature on various sectorial pieces of evidence globally that influence the environment. Although this review provides a thorough examination of climate change and its severe affected sectors that pose a grave danger for global agriculture, biodiversity, health, economy, forestry, and tourism, and to purpose some practical prophylactic measures and mitigation strategies to be adapted as sound substitutes to survive from climate change (CC) impacts. The societal implications of irregular weather patterns and other effects of climate changes are discussed in detail. Some numerous sustainable mitigation measures and adaptation practices and techniques at the global level are discussed in this review with an in-depth focus on its economic, social, and environmental aspects. Methods of data collection section are included in the supplementary information.

Review methodology

Related study and its objectives.

Today, we live an ordinary life in the beautiful digital, globalized world where climate change has a decisive role. What happens in one country has a massive influence on geographically far apart countries, which points to the current crisis known as COVID-19 (Sarkar et al.  2021 ). The most dangerous disease like COVID-19 has affected the world’s climate changes and economic conditions (Abbass et al. 2022 ; Pirasteh-Anosheh et al.  2021 ). The purpose of the present study is to review the status of research on the subject, which is based on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures” by systematically reviewing past published and unpublished research work. Furthermore, the current study seeks to comment on research on the same topic and suggest future research on the same topic. Specifically, the present study aims: The first one is, organize publications to make them easy and quick to find. Secondly, to explore issues in this area, propose an outline of research for future work. The third aim of the study is to synthesize the previous literature on climate change, various sectors, and their mitigation measurement. Lastly , classify the articles according to the different methods and procedures that have been adopted.

Review methodology for reviewers

This review-based article followed systematic literature review techniques that have proved the literature review as a rigorous framework (Benita  2021 ; Tranfield et al.  2003 ). Moreover, we illustrate in Fig.  1 the search method that we have started for this research. First, finalized the research theme to search literature (Cooper et al.  2018 ). Second, used numerous research databases to search related articles and download from the database (Web of Science, Google Scholar, Scopus Index Journals, Emerald, Elsevier Science Direct, Springer, and Sciverse). We focused on various articles, with research articles, feedback pieces, short notes, debates, and review articles published in scholarly journals. Reports used to search for multiple keywords such as “Climate Change,” “Mitigation and Adaptation,” “Department of Agriculture and Human Health,” “Department of Biodiversity and Forestry,” etc.; in summary, keyword list and full text have been made. Initially, the search for keywords yielded a large amount of literature.

Methodology search for finalized articles for investigations.

Source : constructed by authors

Since 2020, it has been impossible to review all the articles found; some restrictions have been set for the literature exhibition. The study searched 95 articles on a different database mentioned above based on the nature of the study. It excluded 40 irrelevant papers due to copied from a previous search after readings tiles, abstract and full pieces. The criteria for inclusion were: (i) articles focused on “Global Climate Change Impacts, adaptation, and sustainable mitigation measures,” and (ii) the search key terms related to study requirements. The complete procedure yielded 55 articles for our study. We repeat our search on the “Web of Science and Google Scholars” database to enhance the search results and check the referenced articles.

In this study, 55 articles are reviewed systematically and analyzed for research topics and other aspects, such as the methods, contexts, and theories used in these studies. Furthermore, this study analyzes closely related areas to provide unique research opportunities in the future. The study also discussed future direction opportunities and research questions by understanding the research findings climate changes and other affected sectors. The reviewed paper framework analysis process is outlined in Fig.  2 .

Framework of the analysis Process.

Natural disasters and climate change’s socio-economic consequences

Natural and environmental disasters can be highly variable from year to year; some years pass with very few deaths before a significant disaster event claims many lives (Symanski et al.  2021 ). Approximately 60,000 people globally died from natural disasters each year on average over the past decade (Ritchie and Roser  2014 ; Wiranata and Simbolon  2021 ). So, according to the report, around 0.1% of global deaths. Annual variability in the number and share of deaths from natural disasters in recent decades are shown in Fig.  3 . The number of fatalities can be meager—sometimes less than 10,000, and as few as 0.01% of all deaths. But shock events have a devastating impact: the 1983–1985 famine and drought in Ethiopia; the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami; Cyclone Nargis, which struck Myanmar in 2008; and the 2010 Port-au-Prince earthquake in Haiti and now recent example is COVID-19 pandemic (Erman et al.  2021 ). These events pushed global disaster deaths to over 200,000—more than 0.4% of deaths in these years. Low-frequency, high-impact events such as earthquakes and tsunamis are not preventable, but such high losses of human life are. Historical evidence shows that earlier disaster detection, more robust infrastructure, emergency preparedness, and response programmers have substantially reduced disaster deaths worldwide. Low-income is also the most vulnerable to disasters; improving living conditions, facilities, and response services in these areas would be critical in reducing natural disaster deaths in the coming decades.

Global deaths from natural disasters, 1978 to 2020.

Source EMDAT ( 2020 )

The interior regions of the continent are likely to be impacted by rising temperatures (Dimri et al.  2018 ; Goes et al.  2020 ; Mannig et al.  2018 ; Schuurmans  2021 ). Weather patterns change due to the shortage of natural resources (water), increase in glacier melting, and rising mercury are likely to cause extinction to many planted species (Gampe et al.  2016 ; Mihiretu et al.  2021 ; Shaffril et al.  2018 ).On the other hand, the coastal ecosystem is on the verge of devastation (Perera et al.  2018 ; Phillips  2018 ). The temperature rises, insect disease outbreaks, health-related problems, and seasonal and lifestyle changes are persistent, with a strong probability of these patterns continuing in the future (Abbass et al. 2021c ; Hussain et al.  2018 ). At the global level, a shortage of good infrastructure and insufficient adaptive capacity are hammering the most (IPCC  2013 ). In addition to the above concerns, a lack of environmental education and knowledge, outdated consumer behavior, a scarcity of incentives, a lack of legislation, and the government’s lack of commitment to climate change contribute to the general public’s concerns. By 2050, a 2 to 3% rise in mercury and a drastic shift in rainfall patterns may have serious consequences (Huang et al. 2022 ; Gorst et al.  2018 ). Natural and environmental calamities caused huge losses globally, such as decreased agriculture outputs, rehabilitation of the system, and rebuilding necessary technologies (Ali and Erenstein  2017 ; Ramankutty et al.  2018 ; Yu et al.  2021 ) (Table ​ (Table1). 1 ). Furthermore, in the last 3 or 4 years, the world has been plagued by smog-related eye and skin diseases, as well as a rise in road accidents due to poor visibility.

Main natural danger statistics for 1985–2020 at the global level

Source: EM-DAT ( 2020 )

Climate change and agriculture

Global agriculture is the ultimate sector responsible for 30–40% of all greenhouse emissions, which makes it a leading industry predominantly contributing to climate warming and significantly impacted by it (Grieg; Mishra et al.  2021 ; Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Thornton and Lipper  2014 ). Numerous agro-environmental and climatic factors that have a dominant influence on agriculture productivity (Pautasso et al.  2012 ) are significantly impacted in response to precipitation extremes including floods, forest fires, and droughts (Huang  2004 ). Besides, the immense dependency on exhaustible resources also fuels the fire and leads global agriculture to become prone to devastation. Godfray et al. ( 2010 ) mentioned that decline in agriculture challenges the farmer’s quality of life and thus a significant factor to poverty as the food and water supplies are critically impacted by CC (Ortiz et al.  2021 ; Rosenzweig et al.  2014 ). As an essential part of the economic systems, especially in developing countries, agricultural systems affect the overall economy and potentially the well-being of households (Schlenker and Roberts  2009 ). According to the report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, i.e., CH 4, CO 2 , and N 2 O, are increased in the air to extraordinary levels over the last few centuries (Usman and Makhdum 2021 ; Stocker et al.  2013 ). Climate change is the composite outcome of two different factors. The first is the natural causes, and the second is the anthropogenic actions (Karami 2012 ). It is also forecasted that the world may experience a typical rise in temperature stretching from 1 to 3.7 °C at the end of this century (Pachauri et al. 2014 ). The world’s crop production is also highly vulnerable to these global temperature-changing trends as raised temperatures will pose severe negative impacts on crop growth (Reidsma et al. 2009 ). Some of the recent modeling about the fate of global agriculture is briefly described below.

Decline in cereal productivity

Crop productivity will also be affected dramatically in the next few decades due to variations in integral abiotic factors such as temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and CO 2 . These all factors are included in various regulatory instruments like progress and growth, weather-tempted changes, pest invasions (Cammell and Knight 1992 ), accompanying disease snags (Fand et al. 2012 ), water supplies (Panda et al. 2003 ), high prices of agro-products in world’s agriculture industry, and preeminent quantity of fertilizer consumption. Lobell and field ( 2007 ) claimed that from 1962 to 2002, wheat crop output had condensed significantly due to rising temperatures. Therefore, during 1980–2011, the common wheat productivity trends endorsed extreme temperature events confirmed by Gourdji et al. ( 2013 ) around South Asia, South America, and Central Asia. Various other studies (Asseng, Cao, Zhang, and Ludwig 2009 ; Asseng et al. 2013 ; García et al. 2015 ; Ortiz et al. 2021 ) also proved that wheat output is negatively affected by the rising temperatures and also caused adverse effects on biomass productivity (Calderini et al. 1999 ; Sadras and Slafer 2012 ). Hereafter, the rice crop is also influenced by the high temperatures at night. These difficulties will worsen because the temperature will be rising further in the future owing to CC (Tebaldi et al. 2006 ). Another research conducted in China revealed that a 4.6% of rice production per 1 °C has happened connected with the advancement in night temperatures (Tao et al. 2006 ). Moreover, the average night temperature growth also affected rice indicia cultivar’s output pragmatically during 25 years in the Philippines (Peng et al. 2004 ). It is anticipated that the increase in world average temperature will also cause a substantial reduction in yield (Hatfield et al. 2011 ; Lobell and Gourdji 2012 ). In the southern hemisphere, Parry et al. ( 2007 ) noted a rise of 1–4 °C in average daily temperatures at the end of spring season unti the middle of summers, and this raised temperature reduced crop output by cutting down the time length for phenophases eventually reduce the yield (Hatfield and Prueger 2015 ; R. Ortiz 2008 ). Also, world climate models have recommended that humid and subtropical regions expect to be plentiful prey to the upcoming heat strokes (Battisti and Naylor 2009 ). Grain production is the amalgamation of two constituents: the average weight and the grain output/m 2 , however, in crop production. Crop output is mainly accredited to the grain quantity (Araus et al. 2008 ; Gambín and Borrás 2010 ). In the times of grain set, yield resources are mainly strewn between hitherto defined components, i.e., grain usual weight and grain output, which presents a trade-off between them (Gambín and Borrás 2010 ) beside disparities in per grain integration (B. L. Gambín et al. 2006 ). In addition to this, the maize crop is also susceptible to raised temperatures, principally in the flowering stage (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). In reality, the lower grain number is associated with insufficient acclimatization due to intense photosynthesis and higher respiration and the high-temperature effect on the reproduction phenomena (Edreira and Otegui 2013 ). During the flowering phase, maize visible to heat (30–36 °C) seemed less anthesis-silking intermissions (Edreira et al. 2011 ). Another research by Dupuis and Dumas ( 1990 ) proved that a drop in spikelet when directly visible to high temperatures above 35 °C in vitro pollination. Abnormalities in kernel number claimed by Vega et al. ( 2001 ) is related to conceded plant development during a flowering phase that is linked with the active ear growth phase and categorized as a critical phase for approximation of kernel number during silking (Otegui and Bonhomme 1998 ).

The retort of rice output to high temperature presents disparities in flowering patterns, and seed set lessens and lessens grain weight (Qasim et al. 2020 ; Qasim, Hammad, Maqsood, Tariq, & Chawla). During the daytime, heat directly impacts flowers which lessens the thesis period and quickens the earlier peak flowering (Tao et al. 2006 ). Antagonistic effect of higher daytime temperature d on pollen sprouting proposed seed set decay, whereas, seed set was lengthily reduced than could be explicated by pollen growing at high temperatures 40◦C (Matsui et al. 2001 ).

The decline in wheat output is linked with higher temperatures, confirmed in numerous studies (Semenov 2009 ; Stone and Nicolas 1994 ). High temperatures fast-track the arrangements of plant expansion (Blum et al. 2001 ), diminution photosynthetic process (Salvucci and Crafts‐Brandner 2004 ), and also considerably affect the reproductive operations (Farooq et al. 2011 ).

The destructive impacts of CC induced weather extremes to deteriorate the integrity of crops (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ), e.g., Spartan cold and extreme fog cause falling and discoloration of betel leaves (Rosenzweig et al. 2001 ), giving them a somehow reddish appearance, squeezing of lemon leaves (Pautasso et al. 2012 ), as well as root rot of pineapple, have reported (Vedwan and Rhoades 2001 ). Henceforth, in tackling the disruptive effects of CC, several short-term and long-term management approaches are the crucial need of time (Fig.  4 ). Moreover, various studies (Chaudhary et al. 2011 ; Patz et al. 2005 ; Pautasso et al. 2012 ) have demonstrated adapting trends such as ameliorating crop diversity can yield better adaptability towards CC.

Schematic description of potential impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector and the appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to overcome its impact.

Climate change impacts on biodiversity

Global biodiversity is among the severe victims of CC because it is the fastest emerging cause of species loss. Studies demonstrated that the massive scale species dynamics are considerably associated with diverse climatic events (Abraham and Chain 1988 ; Manes et al. 2021 ; A. M. D. Ortiz et al. 2021 ). Both the pace and magnitude of CC are altering the compatible habitat ranges for living entities of marine, freshwater, and terrestrial regions. Alterations in general climate regimes influence the integrity of ecosystems in numerous ways, such as variation in the relative abundance of species, range shifts, changes in activity timing, and microhabitat use (Bates et al. 2014 ). The geographic distribution of any species often depends upon its ability to tolerate environmental stresses, biological interactions, and dispersal constraints. Hence, instead of the CC, the local species must only accept, adapt, move, or face extinction (Berg et al. 2010 ). So, the best performer species have a better survival capacity for adjusting to new ecosystems or a decreased perseverance to survive where they are already situated (Bates et al. 2014 ). An important aspect here is the inadequate habitat connectivity and access to microclimates, also crucial in raising the exposure to climate warming and extreme heatwave episodes. For example, the carbon sequestration rates are undergoing fluctuations due to climate-driven expansion in the range of global mangroves (Cavanaugh et al. 2014 ).

Similarly, the loss of kelp-forest ecosystems in various regions and its occupancy by the seaweed turfs has set the track for elevated herbivory by the high influx of tropical fish populations. Not only this, the increased water temperatures have exacerbated the conditions far away from the physiological tolerance level of the kelp communities (Vergés et al. 2016 ; Wernberg et al. 2016 ). Another pertinent danger is the devastation of keystone species, which even has more pervasive effects on the entire communities in that habitat (Zarnetske et al. 2012 ). It is particularly important as CC does not specify specific populations or communities. Eventually, this CC-induced redistribution of species may deteriorate carbon storage and the net ecosystem productivity (Weed et al. 2013 ). Among the typical disruptions, the prominent ones include impacts on marine and terrestrial productivity, marine community assembly, and the extended invasion of toxic cyanobacteria bloom (Fossheim et al. 2015 ).

The CC-impacted species extinction is widely reported in the literature (Beesley et al. 2019 ; Urban 2015 ), and the predictions of demise until the twenty-first century are dreadful (Abbass et al. 2019 ; Pereira et al. 2013 ). In a few cases, northward shifting of species may not be formidable as it allows mountain-dwelling species to find optimum climates. However, the migrant species may be trapped in isolated and incompatible habitats due to losing topography and range (Dullinger et al. 2012 ). For example, a study indicated that the American pika has been extirpated or intensely diminished in some regions, primarily attributed to the CC-impacted extinction or at least local extirpation (Stewart et al. 2015 ). Besides, the anticipation of persistent responses to the impacts of CC often requires data records of several decades to rigorously analyze the critical pre and post CC patterns at species and ecosystem levels (Manes et al. 2021 ; Testa et al. 2018 ).

Nonetheless, the availability of such long-term data records is rare; hence, attempts are needed to focus on these profound aspects. Biodiversity is also vulnerable to the other associated impacts of CC, such as rising temperatures, droughts, and certain invasive pest species. For instance, a study revealed the changes in the composition of plankton communities attributed to rising temperatures. Henceforth, alterations in such aquatic producer communities, i.e., diatoms and calcareous plants, can ultimately lead to variation in the recycling of biological carbon. Moreover, such changes are characterized as a potential contributor to CO 2 differences between the Pleistocene glacial and interglacial periods (Kohfeld et al. 2005 ).

Climate change implications on human health

It is an understood corporality that human health is a significant victim of CC (Costello et al. 2009 ). According to the WHO, CC might be responsible for 250,000 additional deaths per year during 2030–2050 (Watts et al. 2015 ). These deaths are attributed to extreme weather-induced mortality and morbidity and the global expansion of vector-borne diseases (Lemery et al. 2021; Yang and Usman 2021 ; Meierrieks 2021 ; UNEP 2017 ). Here, some of the emerging health issues pertinent to this global problem are briefly described.

Climate change and antimicrobial resistance with corresponding economic costs

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is an up-surging complex global health challenge (Garner et al. 2019 ; Lemery et al. 2021 ). Health professionals across the globe are extremely worried due to this phenomenon that has critical potential to reverse almost all the progress that has been achieved so far in the health discipline (Gosling and Arnell 2016 ). A massive amount of antibiotics is produced by many pharmaceutical industries worldwide, and the pathogenic microorganisms are gradually developing resistance to them, which can be comprehended how strongly this aspect can shake the foundations of national and global economies (UNEP 2017 ). This statement is supported by the fact that AMR is not developing in a particular region or country. Instead, it is flourishing in every continent of the world (WHO 2018 ). This plague is heavily pushing humanity to the post-antibiotic era, in which currently antibiotic-susceptible pathogens will once again lead to certain endemics and pandemics after being resistant(WHO 2018 ). Undesirably, if this statement would become a factuality, there might emerge certain risks in undertaking sophisticated interventions such as chemotherapy, joint replacement cases, and organ transplantation (Su et al. 2018 ). Presently, the amplification of drug resistance cases has made common illnesses like pneumonia, post-surgical infections, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, etc., too difficult and costly to be treated or cure well (WHO 2018 ). From a simple example, it can be assumed how easily antibiotic-resistant strains can be transmitted from one person to another and ultimately travel across the boundaries (Berendonk et al. 2015 ). Talking about the second- and third-generation classes of antibiotics, e.g., most renowned generations of cephalosporin antibiotics that are more expensive, broad-spectrum, more toxic, and usually require more extended periods whenever prescribed to patients (Lemery et al. 2021 ; Pärnänen et al. 2019 ). This scenario has also revealed that the abundance of resistant strains of pathogens was also higher in the Southern part (WHO 2018 ). As southern parts are generally warmer than their counterparts, it is evident from this example how CC-induced global warming can augment the spread of antibiotic-resistant strains within the biosphere, eventually putting additional economic burden in the face of developing new and costlier antibiotics. The ARG exchange to susceptible bacteria through one of the potential mechanisms, transformation, transduction, and conjugation; Selection pressure can be caused by certain antibiotics, metals or pesticides, etc., as shown in Fig.  5 .

A typical interaction between the susceptible and resistant strains.

Source: Elsayed et al. ( 2021 ); Karkman et al. ( 2018 )

Certain studies highlighted that conventional urban wastewater treatment plants are typical hotspots where most bacterial strains exchange genetic material through horizontal gene transfer (Fig.  5 ). Although at present, the extent of risks associated with the antibiotic resistance found in wastewater is complicated; environmental scientists and engineers have particular concerns about the potential impacts of these antibiotic resistance genes on human health (Ashbolt 2015 ). At most undesirable and worst case, these antibiotic-resistant genes containing bacteria can make their way to enter into the environment (Pruden et al. 2013 ), irrigation water used for crops and public water supplies and ultimately become a part of food chains and food webs (Ma et al. 2019 ; D. Wu et al. 2019 ). This problem has been reported manifold in several countries (Hendriksen et al. 2019 ), where wastewater as a means of irrigated water is quite common.

Climate change and vector borne-diseases

Temperature is a fundamental factor for the sustenance of living entities regardless of an ecosystem. So, a specific living being, especially a pathogen, requires a sophisticated temperature range to exist on earth. The second essential component of CC is precipitation, which also impacts numerous infectious agents’ transport and dissemination patterns. Global rising temperature is a significant cause of many species extinction. On the one hand, this changing environmental temperature may be causing species extinction, and on the other, this warming temperature might favor the thriving of some new organisms. Here, it was evident that some pathogens may also upraise once non-evident or reported (Patz et al. 2000 ). This concept can be exemplified through certain pathogenic strains of microorganisms that how the likelihood of various diseases increases in response to climate warming-induced environmental changes (Table ​ (Table2 2 ).

Examples of how various environmental changes affect various infectious diseases in humans

Source: Aron and Patz ( 2001 )

A recent example is an outburst of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the Republic of China, causing pneumonia and severe acute respiratory complications (Cui et al. 2021 ; Song et al. 2021 ). The large family of viruses is harbored in numerous animals, bats, and snakes in particular (livescience.com) with the subsequent transfer into human beings. Hence, it is worth noting that the thriving of numerous vectors involved in spreading various diseases is influenced by Climate change (Ogden 2018 ; Santos et al. 2021 ).

Psychological impacts of climate change

Climate change (CC) is responsible for the rapid dissemination and exaggeration of certain epidemics and pandemics. In addition to the vast apparent impacts of climate change on health, forestry, agriculture, etc., it may also have psychological implications on vulnerable societies. It can be exemplified through the recent outburst of (COVID-19) in various countries around the world (Pal 2021 ). Besides, the victims of this viral infection have made healthy beings scarier and terrified. In the wake of such epidemics, people with common colds or fever are also frightened and must pass specific regulatory protocols. Living in such situations continuously terrifies the public and makes the stress familiar, which eventually makes them psychologically weak (npr.org).

CC boosts the extent of anxiety, distress, and other issues in public, pushing them to develop various mental-related problems. Besides, frequent exposure to extreme climatic catastrophes such as geological disasters also imprints post-traumatic disorder, and their ubiquitous occurrence paves the way to developing chronic psychological dysfunction. Moreover, repetitive listening from media also causes an increase in the person’s stress level (Association 2020 ). Similarly, communities living in flood-prone areas constantly live in extreme fear of drowning and die by floods. In addition to human lives, the flood-induced destruction of physical infrastructure is a specific reason for putting pressure on these communities (Ogden 2018 ). For instance, Ogden ( 2018 ) comprehensively denoted that Katrina’s Hurricane augmented the mental health issues in the victim communities.

Climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Forests are the global regulators of the world’s climate (FAO 2018 ) and have an indispensable role in regulating global carbon and nitrogen cycles (Rehman et al. 2021 ; Reichstein and Carvalhais 2019 ). Hence, disturbances in forest ecology affect the micro and macro-climates (Ellison et al. 2017 ). Climate warming, in return, has profound impacts on the growth and productivity of transboundary forests by influencing the temperature and precipitation patterns, etc. As CC induces specific changes in the typical structure and functions of ecosystems (Zhang et al. 2017 ) as well impacts forest health, climate change also has several devastating consequences such as forest fires, droughts, pest outbreaks (EPA 2018 ), and last but not the least is the livelihoods of forest-dependent communities. The rising frequency and intensity of another CC product, i.e., droughts, pose plenty of challenges to the well-being of global forests (Diffenbaugh et al. 2017 ), which is further projected to increase soon (Hartmann et al. 2018 ; Lehner et al. 2017 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ). Hence, CC induces storms, with more significant impacts also put extra pressure on the survival of the global forests (Martínez-Alvarado et al. 2018 ), significantly since their influences are augmented during higher winter precipitations with corresponding wetter soils causing weak root anchorage of trees (Brázdil et al. 2018 ). Surging temperature regimes causes alterations in usual precipitation patterns, which is a significant hurdle for the survival of temperate forests (Allen et al. 2010 ; Flannigan et al. 2013 ), letting them encounter severe stress and disturbances which adversely affects the local tree species (Hubbart et al. 2016 ; Millar and Stephenson 2015 ; Rehman et al. 2021 ).

Climate change impacts on forest-dependent communities

Forests are the fundamental livelihood resource for about 1.6 billion people worldwide; out of them, 350 million are distinguished with relatively higher reliance (Bank 2008 ). Agro-forestry-dependent communities comprise 1.2 billion, and 60 million indigenous people solely rely on forests and their products to sustain their lives (Sunderlin et al. 2005 ). For example, in the entire African continent, more than 2/3rd of inhabitants depend on forest resources and woodlands for their alimonies, e.g., food, fuelwood and grazing (Wasiq and Ahmad 2004 ). The livings of these people are more intensely affected by the climatic disruptions making their lives harder (Brown et al. 2014 ). On the one hand, forest communities are incredibly vulnerable to CC due to their livelihoods, cultural and spiritual ties as well as socio-ecological connections, and on the other, they are not familiar with the term “climate change.” (Rahman and Alam 2016 ). Among the destructive impacts of temperature and rainfall, disruption of the agroforestry crops with resultant downscale growth and yield (Macchi et al. 2008 ). Cruz ( 2015 ) ascribed that forest-dependent smallholder farmers in the Philippines face the enigma of delayed fruiting, more severe damages by insect and pest incidences due to unfavorable temperature regimes, and changed rainfall patterns.

Among these series of challenges to forest communities, their well-being is also distinctly vulnerable to CC. Though the detailed climate change impacts on human health have been comprehensively mentioned in the previous section, some studies have listed a few more devastating effects on the prosperity of forest-dependent communities. For instance, the Himalayan people have been experiencing frequent skin-borne diseases such as malaria and other skin diseases due to increasing mosquitoes, wild boar as well, and new wasps species, particularly in higher altitudes that were almost non-existent before last 5–10 years (Xu et al. 2008 ). Similarly, people living at high altitudes in Bangladesh have experienced frequent mosquito-borne calamities (Fardous; Sharma 2012 ). In addition, the pace of other waterborne diseases such as infectious diarrhea, cholera, pathogenic induced abdominal complications and dengue has also been boosted in other distinguished regions of Bangladesh (Cell 2009 ; Gunter et al. 2008 ).

Pest outbreak

Upscaling hotter climate may positively affect the mobile organisms with shorter generation times because they can scurry from harsh conditions than the immobile species (Fettig et al. 2013 ; Schoene and Bernier 2012 ) and are also relatively more capable of adapting to new environments (Jactel et al. 2019 ). It reveals that insects adapt quickly to global warming due to their mobility advantages. Due to past outbreaks, the trees (forests) are relatively more susceptible victims (Kurz et al. 2008 ). Before CC, the influence of factors mentioned earlier, i.e., droughts and storms, was existent and made the forests susceptible to insect pest interventions; however, the global forests remain steadfast, assiduous, and green (Jactel et al. 2019 ). The typical reasons could be the insect herbivores were regulated by several tree defenses and pressures of predation (Wilkinson and Sherratt 2016 ). As climate greatly influences these phenomena, the global forests cannot be so sedulous against such challenges (Jactel et al. 2019 ). Table ​ Table3 3 demonstrates some of the particular considerations with practical examples that are essential while mitigating the impacts of CC in the forestry sector.

Essential considerations while mitigating the climate change impacts on the forestry sector

Source : Fischer ( 2019 )

Climate change impacts on tourism

Tourism is a commercial activity that has roots in multi-dimensions and an efficient tool with adequate job generation potential, revenue creation, earning of spectacular foreign exchange, enhancement in cross-cultural promulgation and cooperation, a business tool for entrepreneurs and eventually for the country’s national development (Arshad et al. 2018 ; Scott 2021 ). Among a plethora of other disciplines, the tourism industry is also a distinct victim of climate warming (Gössling et al. 2012 ; Hall et al. 2015 ) as the climate is among the essential resources that enable tourism in particular regions as most preferred locations. Different places at different times of the year attract tourists both within and across the countries depending upon the feasibility and compatibility of particular weather patterns. Hence, the massive variations in these weather patterns resulting from CC will eventually lead to monumental challenges to the local economy in that specific area’s particular and national economy (Bujosa et al. 2015 ). For instance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report demonstrated that the global tourism industry had faced a considerable decline in the duration of ski season, including the loss of some ski areas and the dramatic shifts in tourist destinations’ climate warming.

Furthermore, different studies (Neuvonen et al. 2015 ; Scott et al. 2004 ) indicated that various currently perfect tourist spots, e.g., coastal areas, splendid islands, and ski resorts, will suffer consequences of CC. It is also worth noting that the quality and potential of administrative management potential to cope with the influence of CC on the tourism industry is of crucial significance, which renders specific strengths of resiliency to numerous destinations to withstand against it (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). Similarly, in the partial or complete absence of adequate socio-economic and socio-political capital, the high-demanding tourist sites scurry towards the verge of vulnerability. The susceptibility of tourism is based on different components such as the extent of exposure, sensitivity, life-supporting sectors, and capacity assessment factors (Füssel and Hildén 2014 ). It is obvious corporality that sectors such as health, food, ecosystems, human habitat, infrastructure, water availability, and the accessibility of a particular region are prone to CC. Henceforth, the sensitivity of these critical sectors to CC and, in return, the adaptive measures are a hallmark in determining the composite vulnerability of climate warming (Ionescu et al. 2009 ).

Moreover, the dependence on imported food items, poor hygienic conditions, and inadequate health professionals are dominant aspects affecting the local terrestrial and aquatic biodiversity. Meanwhile, the greater dependency on ecosystem services and its products also makes a destination more fragile to become a prey of CC (Rizvi et al. 2015 ). Some significant non-climatic factors are important indicators of a particular ecosystem’s typical health and functioning, e.g., resource richness and abundance portray the picture of ecosystem stability. Similarly, the species abundance is also a productive tool that ensures that the ecosystem has a higher buffering capacity, which is terrific in terms of resiliency (Roscher et al. 2013 ).

Climate change impacts on the economic sector

Climate plays a significant role in overall productivity and economic growth. Due to its increasingly global existence and its effect on economic growth, CC has become one of the major concerns of both local and international environmental policymakers (Ferreira et al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Abbass et al. 2021b ; Lamperti et al. 2021 ). The adverse effects of CC on the overall productivity factor of the agricultural sector are therefore significant for understanding the creation of local adaptation policies and the composition of productive climate policy contracts. Previous studies on CC in the world have already forecasted its effects on the agricultural sector. Researchers have found that global CC will impact the agricultural sector in different world regions. The study of the impacts of CC on various agrarian activities in other demographic areas and the development of relative strategies to respond to effects has become a focal point for researchers (Chandioet al. 2020 ; Gleditsch 2021 ; Mosavi et al. 2020 ).

With the rapid growth of global warming since the 1980s, the temperature has started increasing globally, which resulted in the incredible transformation of rain and evaporation in the countries. The agricultural development of many countries has been reliant, delicate, and susceptible to CC for a long time, and it is on the development of agriculture total factor productivity (ATFP) influence different crops and yields of farmers (Alhassan 2021 ; Wu  2020 ).

Food security and natural disasters are increasing rapidly in the world. Several major climatic/natural disasters have impacted local crop production in the countries concerned. The effects of these natural disasters have been poorly controlled by the development of the economies and populations and may affect human life as well. One example is China, which is among the world’s most affected countries, vulnerable to natural disasters due to its large population, harsh environmental conditions, rapid CC, low environmental stability, and disaster power. According to the January 2016 statistical survey, China experienced an economic loss of 298.3 billion Yuan, and about 137 million Chinese people were severely affected by various natural disasters (Xie et al. 2018 ).

Mitigation and adaptation strategies of climate changes

Adaptation and mitigation are the crucial factors to address the response to CC (Jahanzad et al. 2020 ). Researchers define mitigation on climate changes, and on the other hand, adaptation directly impacts climate changes like floods. To some extent, mitigation reduces or moderates greenhouse gas emission, and it becomes a critical issue both economically and environmentally (Botzen et al. 2021 ; Jahanzad et al. 2020 ; Kongsager 2018 ; Smit et al. 2000 ; Vale et al. 2021 ; Usman et al. 2021 ; Verheyen 2005 ).

Researchers have deep concern about the adaptation and mitigation methodologies in sectoral and geographical contexts. Agriculture, industry, forestry, transport, and land use are the main sectors to adapt and mitigate policies(Kärkkäinen et al. 2020 ; Waheed et al. 2021 ). Adaptation and mitigation require particular concern both at the national and international levels. The world has faced a significant problem of climate change in the last decades, and adaptation to these effects is compulsory for economic and social development. To adapt and mitigate against CC, one should develop policies and strategies at the international level (Hussain et al. 2020 ). Figure  6 depicts the list of current studies on sectoral impacts of CC with adaptation and mitigation measures globally.

Sectoral impacts of climate change with adaptation and mitigation measures.

Conclusion and future perspectives

Specific socio-agricultural, socio-economic, and physical systems are the cornerstone of psychological well-being, and the alteration in these systems by CC will have disastrous impacts. Climate variability, alongside other anthropogenic and natural stressors, influences human and environmental health sustainability. Food security is another concerning scenario that may lead to compromised food quality, higher food prices, and inadequate food distribution systems. Global forests are challenged by different climatic factors such as storms, droughts, flash floods, and intense precipitation. On the other hand, their anthropogenic wiping is aggrandizing their existence. Undoubtedly, the vulnerability scale of the world’s regions differs; however, appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures can aid the decision-making bodies in developing effective policies to tackle its impacts. Presently, modern life on earth has tailored to consistent climatic patterns, and accordingly, adapting to such considerable variations is of paramount importance. Because the faster changes in climate will make it harder to survive and adjust, this globally-raising enigma calls for immediate attention at every scale ranging from elementary community level to international level. Still, much effort, research, and dedication are required, which is the most critical time. Some policy implications can help us to mitigate the consequences of climate change, especially the most affected sectors like the agriculture sector;

Warming might lengthen the season in frost-prone growing regions (temperate and arctic zones), allowing for longer-maturing seasonal cultivars with better yields (Pfadenhauer 2020 ; Bonacci 2019 ). Extending the planting season may allow additional crops each year; when warming leads to frequent warmer months highs over critical thresholds, a split season with a brief summer fallow may be conceivable for short-period crops such as wheat barley, cereals, and many other vegetable crops. The capacity to prolong the planting season in tropical and subtropical places where the harvest season is constrained by precipitation or agriculture farming occurs after the year may be more limited and dependent on how precipitation patterns vary (Wu et al. 2017 ).

The genetic component is comprehensive for many yields, but it is restricted like kiwi fruit for a few. Ali et al. ( 2017 ) investigated how new crops will react to climatic changes (also stated in Mall et al. 2017 ). Hot temperature, drought, insect resistance; salt tolerance; and overall crop production and product quality increases would all be advantageous (Akkari 2016 ). Genetic mapping and engineering can introduce a greater spectrum of features. The adoption of genetically altered cultivars has been slowed, particularly in the early forecasts owing to the complexity in ensuring features are expediently expressed throughout the entire plant, customer concerns, economic profitability, and regulatory impediments (Wirehn 2018 ; Davidson et al. 2016 ).

To get the full benefit of the CO 2 would certainly require additional nitrogen and other fertilizers. Nitrogen not consumed by the plants may be excreted into groundwater, discharged into water surface, or emitted from the land, soil nitrous oxide when large doses of fertilizer are sprayed. Increased nitrogen levels in groundwater sources have been related to human chronic illnesses and impact marine ecosystems. Cultivation, grain drying, and other field activities have all been examined in depth in the studies (Barua et al. 2018 ).

• The technological and socio-economic adaptation

The policy consequence of the causative conclusion is that as a source of alternative energy, biofuel production is one of the routes that explain oil price volatility separate from international macroeconomic factors. Even though biofuel production has just begun in a few sample nations, there is still a tremendous worldwide need for feedstock to satisfy industrial expansion in China and the USA, which explains the food price relationship to the global oil price. Essentially, oil-exporting countries may create incentives in their economies to increase food production. It may accomplish by giving farmers financing, seedlings, fertilizers, and farming equipment. Because of the declining global oil price and, as a result, their earnings from oil export, oil-producing nations may be unable to subsidize food imports even in the near term. As a result, these countries can boost the agricultural value chain for export. It may be accomplished through R&D and adding value to their food products to increase income by correcting exchange rate misalignment and adverse trade terms. These nations may also diversify their economies away from oil, as dependence on oil exports alone is no longer economically viable given the extreme volatility of global oil prices. Finally, resource-rich and oil-exporting countries can convert to non-food renewable energy sources such as solar, hydro, coal, wind, wave, and tidal energy. By doing so, both world food and oil supplies would be maintained rather than harmed.

IRENA’s modeling work shows that, if a comprehensive policy framework is in place, efforts toward decarbonizing the energy future will benefit economic activity, jobs (outweighing losses in the fossil fuel industry), and welfare. Countries with weak domestic supply chains and a large reliance on fossil fuel income, in particular, must undertake structural reforms to capitalize on the opportunities inherent in the energy transition. Governments continue to give major policy assistance to extract fossil fuels, including tax incentives, financing, direct infrastructure expenditures, exemptions from environmental regulations, and other measures. The majority of major oil and gas producing countries intend to increase output. Some countries intend to cut coal output, while others plan to maintain or expand it. While some nations are beginning to explore and execute policies aimed at a just and equitable transition away from fossil fuel production, these efforts have yet to impact major producing countries’ plans and goals. Verifiable and comparable data on fossil fuel output and assistance from governments and industries are critical to closing the production gap. Governments could increase openness by declaring their production intentions in their climate obligations under the Paris Agreement.

It is firmly believed that achieving the Paris Agreement commitments is doubtlful without undergoing renewable energy transition across the globe (Murshed 2020 ; Zhao et al. 2022 ). Policy instruments play the most important role in determining the degree of investment in renewable energy technology. This study examines the efficacy of various policy strategies in the renewable energy industry of multiple nations. Although its impact is more visible in established renewable energy markets, a renewable portfolio standard is also a useful policy instrument. The cost of producing renewable energy is still greater than other traditional energy sources. Furthermore, government incentives in the R&D sector can foster innovation in this field, resulting in cost reductions in the renewable energy industry. These nations may export their technologies and share their policy experiences by forming networks among their renewable energy-focused organizations. All policy measures aim to reduce production costs while increasing the proportion of renewables to a country’s energy system. Meanwhile, long-term contracts with renewable energy providers, government commitment and control, and the establishment of long-term goals can assist developing nations in deploying renewable energy technology in their energy sector.

Author contribution

KA: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Study design, Formal analysis, Visualization, Revised draft, Writing-review, and editing. MZQ: Writing the original manuscript, data collection, data analysis, Writing-review, and editing. HS: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, Conceptualization, Validation, Supervision, literature review, Revised drapt, and writing review and editing. MM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. HM: Writing review and editing, compiling the literature review, language editing. IY: Contribution to the contextualization of the theme, literature review, and writing review and editing.

Availability of data and material

Declarations.

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The authors declare no competing interests.

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Contributor Information

Kashif Abbass, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@ssabbafihsak .

Muhammad Zeeshan Qasim, Email: moc.kooltuo@888misaqnahseez .

Huaming Song, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@gnimauh .

Muntasir Murshed, Email: [email protected] .

Haider Mahmood, Email: moc.liamtoh@doomhamrediah .

Ijaz Younis, Email: nc.ude.tsujn@sinuoyzaji .

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Climate Change Essay for Students and Children

500+ words climate change essay.

Climate change refers to the change in the environmental conditions of the earth. This happens due to many internal and external factors. The climatic change has become a global concern over the last few decades. Besides, these climatic changes affect life on the earth in various ways. These climatic changes are having various impacts on the ecosystem and ecology. Due to these changes, a number of species of plants and animals have gone extinct.

When Did it Start?

The climate started changing a long time ago due to human activities but we came to know about it in the last century. During the last century, we started noticing the climatic change and its effect on human life. We started researching on climate change and came to know that the earth temperature is rising due to a phenomenon called the greenhouse effect. The warming up of earth surface causes many ozone depletion, affect our agriculture , water supply, transportation, and several other problems.

Reason Of Climate Change

Although there are hundreds of reason for the climatic change we are only going to discuss the natural and manmade (human) reasons.

Get the huge list of more than 500 Essay Topics and Ideas

Natural Reasons

These include volcanic eruption , solar radiation, tectonic plate movement, orbital variations. Due to these activities, the geographical condition of an area become quite harmful for life to survive. Also, these activities raise the temperature of the earth to a great extent causing an imbalance in nature.

Human Reasons

Man due to his need and greed has done many activities that not only harm the environment but himself too. Many plant and animal species go extinct due to human activity. Human activities that harm the climate include deforestation, using fossil fuel , industrial waste , a different type of pollution and many more. All these things damage the climate and ecosystem very badly. And many species of animals and birds got extinct or on a verge of extinction due to hunting.

Effects Of Climatic Change

These climatic changes have a negative impact on the environment. The ocean level is rising, glaciers are melting, CO2 in the air is increasing, forest and wildlife are declining, and water life is also getting disturbed due to climatic changes. Apart from that, it is calculated that if this change keeps on going then many species of plants and animals will get extinct. And there will be a heavy loss to the environment.

What will be Future?

If we do not do anything and things continue to go on like right now then a day in future will come when humans will become extinct from the surface of the earth. But instead of neglecting these problems we start acting on then we can save the earth and our future.

Although humans mistake has caused great damage to the climate and ecosystem. But, it is not late to start again and try to undo what we have done until now to damage the environment. And if every human start contributing to the environment then we can be sure of our existence in the future.

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The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature

This paper estimates that the macroeconomic damages from climate change are six times larger than previously thought. We exploit natural variability in global temperature and rely on time-series variation. A 1°C increase in global temperature leads to a 12% decline in world GDP. Global temperature shocks correlate much more strongly with extreme climatic events than the country-level temperature shocks commonly used in the panel literature, explaining why our estimate is substantially larger. We use our reduced-form evidence to estimate structural damage functions in a standard neoclassical growth model. Our results imply a Social Cost of Carbon of $1,056 per ton of carbon dioxide. A business-as-usual warming scenario leads to a present value welfare loss of 31%. Both are multiple orders of magnitude above previous estimates and imply that unilateral decarbonization policy is cost-effective for large countries such as the United States.

Adrien Bilal gratefully acknowledges support from the Chae Family Economics Research Fund at Harvard University. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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Hot history: Tree rings show that last northern summer was the warmest since year 1

FILE - A woman watches the sun set on a hot day, Aug. 20, 2023, in Kansas City, Mo. A new study on Tuesday, May 14, 2024, finds that the broiling summer of 2023 was the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere in more than 2,000 years. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel, File)

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The broiling summer of 2023 was the hottest in the Northern Hemisphere in more than 2,000 years, a new study found.

When the temperatures spiked last year, numerous weather agencies said it was the hottest month, summer and year on record. But those records only go back to 1850 at best because it’s based on thermometers. Now scientists can go back to the modern western calendar’s year 1, when the Bible says Jesus of Nazareth walked the Earth, but have found no hotter northern summer than last year’s.

A study Tuesday in the journal Nature uses a well-established method and record of more than 10,000 tree rings to calculate summertime temperatures for each year since the year 1. No year came even close to last summer’s high heat, said lead author Jan Esper, a climate geographer at the Gutenberg Research College in Germany.

Before humans started pumping heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere by burning coal, oil and natural gas, the hottest year was the year 246, Esper said. That was the beginning of the medieval period of history, when Roman Emperor Philip the Arab fought Germans along the Danube River.

Esper’s paper showed that in the Northern Hemisphere, the summer of 2023 was as much as 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit (1.2 degrees Celsius) warmer than the summer of 246. In fact 25 of the last 28 years have been hotter than that early medieval summer, said study co-author Max Torbenson.

“That gives us a good idea of how extreme 2023 is,” Esper told The Associated Press.

The team used thousands of trees in 15 different sites in the Northern Hemisphere, north of the tropics, where there was enough data to get a good figure going back to year 1, Esper said. There was not quite enough tree data in the Southern Hemisphere to publish, but the sparse data showed something similar, he said.

Scientists look at the rings of annual tree growth and “we can match them almost like a puzzle back in time so we can assign annual dates to every ring,” Torbenson said.

Why stop the look back at year 1, when other temperature reconstructions go back more than 20,000 years, asked University of Pennsylvannia climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn’t part of the study but more than a quarter century ago published the famous hockey stick graph showing rising temperatures since the Industrial Age. He said just relying on tree rings is “considerably less reliable” than looking at all sorts of proxy data, including ice cores, corals and more.

Esper said his new study only uses tree data because it is precise enough to give summer-by-summer temperature estimates, which can’t be done with corals, ice cores and other proxies. Tree rings are higher resolution, he said.

“The global temperature records set last summer were so gobsmacking — shattering the prior record by 0.5C in September and 0.4C in October — that it’s not surprising they would be clearly be the warmest in the past 2,000 years,” said Berkeley Earth climate scientist Zeke Hausfather, who wasn’t part of the study. “It’s likely the warmest summer in 120,000 years, though we cannot be absolutely sure,” he said, because data precise to a year doesn’t go back that far.

Because high-resolution annual data doesn’t go back that far, Esper said it’s wrong for scientists and the media to call it the hottest in 120,000 years. Two thousand years is enough, he said.

Esper also said the pre-industrial period of 1850 to 1900 that scientists — especially the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — use for the base period before warming may be a bit cooler than the instrumental records show. The instruments back then were more often in the hot sun instead of shielded like they are now, and tree rings continue to show that it was about 0.4 degrees (0.2 degrees Celsius) cooler than thermometers show.

That means there’s been a bit more warming from human-caused climate change than most scientists calculate, an issue being hashed out by researchers over the last few years.

Looking at the temperature records, especially the last 150 years, Esper noticed that while they are generally increasing, they tend to do so with slow rises and then giant steps, like what happened last year. He said those steps are often associated with a natural El Nino, a warming of the central Pacific that changes weather worldwide and adds even more heat to a changing climate.

“I don’t know when the next step will be taken, but I will not be surprised by another huge step in the next 10 to 15 years, that’s for sure,” Esper said in a news briefing. “And it’s very worrying.”

This story has been corrected to refer to Jesus of Nazareth, rather than Jesus Christ.

Read more of AP’s climate coverage at http://www.apnews.com/climate-and-environment

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The Associated Press’ climate and environmental coverage receives financial support from multiple private foundations. AP is solely responsible for all content. Find AP’s standards for working with philanthropies, a list of supporters and funded coverage areas at AP.org .

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Summer 2023 Was the Northern Hemisphere’s Hottest in 2,000 Years, Study Finds

Scientists used tree rings to compare last year’s extreme heat with temperatures over the past two millenniums.

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By Delger Erdenesanaa

The summer of 2023 was exceptionally hot. Scientists have already established that it was the warmest Northern Hemisphere summer since around 1850, when people started systematically measuring and recording temperatures.

Now, researchers say it was the hottest in 2,000 years, according to a new study published in the journal Nature that compares 2023 with a longer temperature record across most of the Northern Hemisphere. The study goes back before the advent of thermometers and weather stations, to the year A.D. 1, using evidence from tree rings.

“That gives us the full picture of natural climate variability,” said Jan Esper, a climatologist at Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz, Germany and lead author of the paper.

Extra greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels are responsible for most of the recent increases in Earth’s temperature, but other factors — including El Niño , an undersea volcanic eruption and a reduction in sulfur dioxide aerosol pollution from container ships — may have contributed to the extremity of the heat last year.

The average temperature from June through August 2023 was 2.20 degrees Celsius warmer than the average summer temperature between the years 1 and 1890, according to the researchers’ tree ring data.

And last summer was 2.07 degrees Celsius warmer than the average summer temperature between 1850 and 1900, the years typically considered the base line for the period before human-caused climate change.

The new study suggests that Earth’s natural temperature was cooler than this base line, which is frequently used by scientists and policymakers when discussing climate goals, such as limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial era.

“This period is really not well covered with instruments,” Dr. Esper said, adding that “the tree rings can do really, really well. So we can use this as a substitute and even as a corrective.”

Trees grow wider each year in a distinct pattern of light-colored rings in spring and early summer, and darker rings in late summer and fall. Each pair of rings represents one year, and differences between the rings offer scientists clues about changing environmental conditions. For example, trees tend to grow more and form wider rings during warm, wet years.

This study compared temperatures in 2023 to a previously published reconstruction of temperatures over the past 2,000 years. More than a dozen research groups collaborated to create this reconstruction, using data from about 10,000 trees across nine regions of the Northern Hemisphere between 30 and 90 degrees latitude, or everywhere above the tropics. Some data came from drilling very thin cores from living trees, but most came from dead trees and historical wood samples.

Covering longer stretches of time results in more volcanic eruptions being included in the data. Big eruptions, at least on land, can cool the Earth by spraying sulfur dioxide aerosols into the atmosphere. Over the past 2,000 years, about 20 or 30 such eruptions have taken place and brought down average temperatures, Dr. Esper said.

(The recent Hunga Tonga eruption, by contrast, happened under the ocean and sprayed enormous amounts of water vapor into the atmosphere. Water vapor is a powerful greenhouse gas.)

Not everyone agrees that tree rings offer a more accurate picture of past temperatures than historical records do.

“It’s still an active area of research,” said Robert Rohde, the lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. Dr. Rohde wasn’t directly involved in the new study, but his organization’s data was used. “This is not the first paper to come out suggesting that there’s a warm bias in the early instrumental period, by any means. But I don’t think it’s really resolved.”

To some extent, slight differences between the stories thermometers and tree rings tell us about Earth’s past don’t matter for the present, said Zeke Hausfather, another Berkeley Earth scientist.

“It’s an academic question more than a practical question,” he said. “Reassessing temperatures in the distant past really doesn’t tell us that much about the effects of climate change today.”

Last year, those effects included a heat dome that settled over much of Mexico and the southern United States for weeks on end. Japan had its hottest summer on record. Canada suffered its worst-ever wildfire season, and parts of Europe also battled a series of destructive wildfires. 2024 is expected to be another hot year .

Delger Erdenesanaa is a reporter covering climate and the environment and a member of the 2023-24 Times Fellowship class, a program for journalists early in their careers. More about Delger Erdenesanaa

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