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How To Write a Thesis Conclusion – Example & Tips

A thesis conclusion is the last and the most crucial section of your thesis or dissertation. It is the summary of the dissertation. Put it this way: the conclusion paragraph is your entire dissertation wrapped in a few paragraphs. But, concluding a thesis is never easy for many people. Therefore, what is the best way for concluding a thesis or dissertation?

In this post, we will take a closer look at the dissertation conclusion to help you understand how to write a winning conclusion for a research paper as well as a thesis. We will narrow it down further to outline the best structure of a conclusion.

What is the Importance of the Conclusion Paragraph?

Discussion vs conclusion, what is the best format for writing a conclusion, get a sigh of relief concluding thesis.

Before digging deeper into the mechanics of how to write a conclusion for a research paper or thesis, you need to ask yourself the question: “Why is it important?”

Your dissertation conclusion is the last part that you work on after completing the research and the write-up. No matter the area of study you are focusing on, the conclusion can help you to achieve the following goals:

• Answering the research questions that you posed in the first chapter of the dissertation.
• The conclusion paragraph is the part where you reflect on the dissertation.
• In the conclusion, you draw the recommendations for additional studies in areas where you found gaps.
• When writing a dissertation conclusion, you demonstrate what new knowledge you are contributing to the field.

Note that just like the rest of the dissertation, you should not shy from asking your supervisor for a great dissertation conclusion example, especially from past students. This is very important because your department might have a preferred format for writing dissertation conclusions. You can also get a perfect example of a conclusion in the thesis as you research your topic.

When designing a conclusion format, it is important to differentiate it from the results and discussion parts of the thesis. This will help you to strike the perfect flow and win the readers’ affection.

The dissertation results chapter outlines the findings you generated from the research. You should use tables and graphs to demonstrate the findings of the study. The results chapter comes before the discussion.

In the discussion section, you delve deeper into the results you have just presented. You are simply deciphering the findings in line with your research questions. It is the discussion that will set the stage for approving or disproving the thesis statement that you outlined in the first chapter.

NOTE: In some colleges, the results and discussions are put together into one chapter. Therefore, it is very important to follow your college’s recommendation.

While the results and discussions focus more on the results, the conclusion wraps up the entire dissertation. If your dissertation ends at the discussion part, the reader will be left hanging. But writing the conclusion makes the dissertation feel complete and authentic.

As you think about how to write a conclusion, there is one question you need to get right: “How long should a conclusion be?” If you are writing a conclusion for a standard research paper or short thesis, one to three paragraphs should suffice. To put it in percentage, the conclusion should be about 5% of the overall word count. Therefore, you should start by establishing “how long should a thesis be”.

In most cases, the conclusion for empirical scientific research is generally short while that of humanities dissertations is longer. Here is the best format for how to end a research paper or thesis.

• Start by answering the thesis question: Your conclusion should commence by restating the main thesis question that you anticipate answering. Finally, you have the opportunity to answer the question. Ensure the answer is clear and concise.
• Reflect on the research that you have just finished: After stating the study question, you need to remind the marker or readers why the study was important. Why did you set off on the journey, what was the anticipation, and did the results confirm the expectation? Give an overview of steps that were used during the research and construction of your argument.

At this point, you might be wondering – do I summarize every chapter? The answer is ‘no.’ Instead, you should write more reflectively and answer whether the methodology used was effective in answering the study questions. Make sure also to mention the limitations you experienced during the study.

• Outline recommendations: Although you might have noted the areas that need further research when discussing results, the conclusion is a perfect place to elaborate. Its recommendations interweave well with personal reflections. Try to make recommendations specific. Here are some examples of how to frame recommendations:

Further studies are needed to establish the implications of …. From the conclusion, sociology researchers should consider ….. To understand the effects of the findings, further research can help to ….

• What was your contribution? This part of the conclusion is used to answer the question: “So what?” It provides the right impression of how the thesis contributed to the researcher’s field of study. To achieve this, you can use the following strategies:

Revisit the study problem statement and explain how the thesis helped to solve it. Refer to the study’s literature review to demonstrate how the dissertation has helped to fill the existing gap. If your dissertation is in humanities, you can demonstrate how the findings challenged or confirmed the current viewpoints, assumptions, or theories.

Note that the conclusion should not appear as a stand-alone chapter in the dissertation. Rather, it should articulately interweave with the rest of the paper. To perfect your skills, make sure to also check top conclusion paragraph examples from other students.

From this post on how to write a conclusion paragraph, there is no doubt that you should find it an easy and enjoyable process. After working so hard to complete the dissertation, the conclusion paragraph is simply aimed at wrapping everything up. To get the best conclusions, you should also read top-rated conclusion paragraph examples to see how experts do it. But we must agree that even with this simplified demonstration, crafting the perfect conclusion paragraph is no easy task. It takes time and practice.

There are times when students, even after working on the biggest chunk of their dissertations, feel inadequate to write the conclusions. Often, the process can be complicated when you are required to follow specific models such as MLA or APA conclusions. Even if you have the best conclusion examples and working hard to hone your writing skills, a tight deadline or other engagements might make it hard to craft the best. If you feel inadequate about writing a Harvard or MLA format conclusion because of any reason, do not hesitate to seek writing help.

Writing help is offered by expert writers who understand the structure of Ph.D. conclusion chapters to guarantee you the best grades. No matter your area of study, the experts are cheap and will get you the best. In addition to helping you write the conclusion, they can also provide you with the best sample of a conclusion paragraph for practice. What a great way to sharpen your skills in dissertation writing?

Do not let writing a thesis conclusion stress you: Use this post to make it fun!

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In a short paper—even a research paper—you don’t need to provide an exhaustive summary as part of your conclusion. But you do need to make some kind of transition between your final body paragraph and your concluding paragraph. This may come in the form of a few sentences of summary. Or it may come in the form of a sentence that brings your readers back to your thesis or main idea and reminds your readers where you began and how far you have traveled.

So, for example, in a paper about the relationship between ADHD and rejection sensitivity, Vanessa Roser begins by introducing readers to the fact that researchers have studied the relationship between the two conditions and then provides her explanation of that relationship. Here’s her thesis: “While socialization may indeed be an important factor in RS, I argue that individuals with ADHD may also possess a neurological predisposition to RS that is exacerbated by the differing executive and emotional regulation characteristic of ADHD.”

In her final paragraph, Roser reminds us of where she started by echoing her thesis: “This literature demonstrates that, as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Highlight the “so what”  

At the beginning of your paper, you explain to your readers what’s at stake—why they should care about the argument you’re making. In your conclusion, you can bring readers back to those stakes by reminding them why your argument is important in the first place. You can also draft a few sentences that put those stakes into a new or broader context.

In the conclusion to her paper about ADHD and RS, Roser echoes the stakes she established in her introduction—that research into connections between ADHD and RS has led to contradictory results, raising questions about the “behavioral mediation hypothesis.”

She writes, “as with many other conditions, ADHD and RS share a delicately intertwined pattern of neurological similarities that is rooted in the innate biology of an individual’s mind, a connection that cannot be explained in full by the behavioral mediation hypothesis.”  

Leave your readers with the “now what”  

After the “what” and the “so what,” you should leave your reader with some final thoughts. If you have written a strong introduction, your readers will know why you have been arguing what you have been arguing—and why they should care. And if you’ve made a good case for your thesis, then your readers should be in a position to see things in a new way, understand new questions, or be ready for something that they weren’t ready for before they read your paper.

In her conclusion, Roser offers two “now what” statements. First, she explains that it is important to recognize that the flawed behavioral mediation hypothesis “seems to place a degree of fault on the individual. It implies that individuals with ADHD must have elicited such frequent or intense rejection by virtue of their inadequate social skills, erasing the possibility that they may simply possess a natural sensitivity to emotion.” She then highlights the broader implications for treatment of people with ADHD, noting that recognizing the actual connection between rejection sensitivity and ADHD “has profound implications for understanding how individuals with ADHD might best be treated in educational settings, by counselors, family, peers, or even society as a whole.”

To find your own “now what” for your essay’s conclusion, try asking yourself these questions:

• What can my readers now understand, see in a new light, or grapple with that they would not have understood in the same way before reading my paper? Are we a step closer to understanding a larger phenomenon or to understanding why what was at stake is so important?  
• What questions can I now raise that would not have made sense at the beginning of my paper? Questions for further research? Other ways that this topic could be approached?  
• Are there other applications for my research? Could my questions be asked about different data in a different context? Could I use my methods to answer a different question?  
• What action should be taken in light of this argument? What action do I predict will be taken or could lead to a solution?  
• What larger context might my argument be a part of?  

What to avoid in your conclusion  

• a complete restatement of all that you have said in your paper.  
• a substantial counterargument that you do not have space to refute; you should introduce counterarguments before your conclusion.  
• an apology for what you have not said. If you need to explain the scope of your paper, you should do this sooner—but don’t apologize for what you have not discussed in your paper.  
• fake transitions like “in conclusion” that are followed by sentences that aren’t actually conclusions. (“In conclusion, I have now demonstrated that my thesis is correct.”)
• picture_as_pdf Conclusions

Reference management. Clean and simple.

5 tips for writing your thesis conclusion

5 thesis conclusion tips

1. avoid too much summary, 2. try not to introduce new information, 3. ensure that your conclusion...concludes, 4. stay focused on the main point of your thesis, 5. consult thesis conclusion examples, more tips about thesis conclusions, frequently asked questions about writing a thesis conclusion, related articles.

Writing a good conclusion is crucial to the success of your thesis , since it's the last thing that your reader will see and the primary means to providing closure to your argument. In this article, we provide 5 tips for creating an outstanding conclusion.

Your conclusion will likely need to provide some summary of your overall project and how you proved and supported your main argument . Good conclusions often contain recommendations for further research or brief illustrations of the implications of the thesis.

Explaining how to apply the information covered in the paper is just as important as summarizing the key parts. Readers should also experience a sense of resolution or closure as they finish your conclusion.

You may need to introduce some new information in your thesis conclusion, especially when you're trying to give the reader a sense of how the research can be applied or expanded.

However, the conclusion is not the right place to introduce new data or other forms of evidence. While you may pose questions or explain how the information is relevant, avoid introducing additional major points.

You might be tempted to add points or data to your conclusion that you didn't include elsewhere. If you do that, the conclusion will not actually conclude anything.

Rather, your conclusion will simply raise more questions. If you find yourself in that situation, your topic might be too broad and you may need to consider narrowing your thesis.

Avoid using your conclusion to engage in over-generalized discussions that miss the point of your paper. Stay focused on the implications of your main argument and don't be tempted to wrap things up through generalizations.

If you're stuck, take a look at examples of thesis conclusions from other writers. Academic databases house thousands of theses and dissertations that you can consult for ideas about how to write a thesis conclusion .

You can also try contacting your advisor or department for examples of successful thesis conclusions written by fellow students or researchers.

Thesis : The culminating project of an undergraduate or graduate program that sustains an argument over several sections or chapters, supported by extensive research and analysis.

Data : Information collected in a research study, usually in the form of numbers or statistics.

Academic Database : A searchable collection of academic materials, such as research articles, conference proceedings, and dissertations.

Conclusion : The final section of a research paper or thesis that summarizes the main findings and provides closure to the reader.

If you need more advice, we highly recommend these sources to help you as you write your thesis conclusion:

• How to write an excellent thesis conclusion
• Leaving a good last impression
• How to make a great conclusion

The conclusion is the last thing that your reader will see, so it should be memorable. To write a great thesis conclusion you should:

• Restate the thesis
• Review the key points of your work
• Explain why your work is relevant
• Add a take-home message for the reader

A conclusion basically includes a review of the main points of your thesis. It should largely consist of the research outcomes and any recommendations you may have for further research.

The length of your conclusion will depend on the length of the whole thesis. Usually, a conclusion should be around 5-7% of the overall word count.

End your conclusion with something memorable, such as a question, warning, or call to action.

You can find thousands of recent examples in Open Access: Theses and Dissertations . Take a look at theses and dissertations in your field for real-life examples of conclusions that were approved.

Conclusions

What this handout is about.

This handout will explain the functions of conclusions, offer strategies for writing effective ones, help you evaluate conclusions you’ve drafted, and suggest approaches to avoid.

About conclusions

Introductions and conclusions can be difficult to write, but they’re worth investing time in. They can have a significant influence on a reader’s experience of your paper.

Just as your introduction acts as a bridge that transports your readers from their own lives into the “place” of your analysis, your conclusion can provide a bridge to help your readers make the transition back to their daily lives. Such a conclusion will help them see why all your analysis and information should matter to them after they put the paper down.

Your conclusion is your chance to have the last word on the subject. The conclusion allows you to have the final say on the issues you have raised in your paper, to synthesize your thoughts, to demonstrate the importance of your ideas, and to propel your reader to a new view of the subject. It is also your opportunity to make a good final impression and to end on a positive note.

Your conclusion can go beyond the confines of the assignment. The conclusion pushes beyond the boundaries of the prompt and allows you to consider broader issues, make new connections, and elaborate on the significance of your findings.

Your conclusion should make your readers glad they read your paper. Your conclusion gives your reader something to take away that will help them see things differently or appreciate your topic in personally relevant ways. It can suggest broader implications that will not only interest your reader, but also enrich your reader’s life in some way. It is your gift to the reader.

Strategies for writing an effective conclusion

One or more of the following strategies may help you write an effective conclusion:

• Play the “So What” Game. If you’re stuck and feel like your conclusion isn’t saying anything new or interesting, ask a friend to read it with you. Whenever you make a statement from your conclusion, ask the friend to say, “So what?” or “Why should anybody care?” Then ponder that question and answer it. Here’s how it might go: You: Basically, I’m just saying that education was important to Douglass. Friend: So what? You: Well, it was important because it was a key to him feeling like a free and equal citizen. Friend: Why should anybody care? You: That’s important because plantation owners tried to keep slaves from being educated so that they could maintain control. When Douglass obtained an education, he undermined that control personally. You can also use this strategy on your own, asking yourself “So What?” as you develop your ideas or your draft.
• Return to the theme or themes in the introduction. This strategy brings the reader full circle. For example, if you begin by describing a scenario, you can end with the same scenario as proof that your essay is helpful in creating a new understanding. You may also refer to the introductory paragraph by using key words or parallel concepts and images that you also used in the introduction.
• Synthesize, don’t summarize. Include a brief summary of the paper’s main points, but don’t simply repeat things that were in your paper. Instead, show your reader how the points you made and the support and examples you used fit together. Pull it all together.
• Include a provocative insight or quotation from the research or reading you did for your paper.
• Propose a course of action, a solution to an issue, or questions for further study. This can redirect your reader’s thought process and help them to apply your info and ideas to their own life or to see the broader implications.
• Point to broader implications. For example, if your paper examines the Greensboro sit-ins or another event in the Civil Rights Movement, you could point out its impact on the Civil Rights Movement as a whole. A paper about the style of writer Virginia Woolf could point to her influence on other writers or on later feminists.

Strategies to avoid

• Beginning with an unnecessary, overused phrase such as “in conclusion,” “in summary,” or “in closing.” Although these phrases can work in speeches, they come across as wooden and trite in writing.
• Stating the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion.
• Introducing a new idea or subtopic in your conclusion.
• Ending with a rephrased thesis statement without any substantive changes.
• Making sentimental, emotional appeals that are out of character with the rest of an analytical paper.
• Including evidence (quotations, statistics, etc.) that should be in the body of the paper.

Four kinds of ineffective conclusions

• The “That’s My Story and I’m Sticking to It” Conclusion. This conclusion just restates the thesis and is usually painfully short. It does not push the ideas forward. People write this kind of conclusion when they can’t think of anything else to say. Example: In conclusion, Frederick Douglass was, as we have seen, a pioneer in American education, proving that education was a major force for social change with regard to slavery.
• The “Sherlock Holmes” Conclusion. Sometimes writers will state the thesis for the very first time in the conclusion. You might be tempted to use this strategy if you don’t want to give everything away too early in your paper. You may think it would be more dramatic to keep the reader in the dark until the end and then “wow” them with your main idea, as in a Sherlock Holmes mystery. The reader, however, does not expect a mystery, but an analytical discussion of your topic in an academic style, with the main argument (thesis) stated up front. Example: (After a paper that lists numerous incidents from the book but never says what these incidents reveal about Douglass and his views on education): So, as the evidence above demonstrates, Douglass saw education as a way to undermine the slaveholders’ power and also an important step toward freedom.
• The “America the Beautiful”/”I Am Woman”/”We Shall Overcome” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion usually draws on emotion to make its appeal, but while this emotion and even sentimentality may be very heartfelt, it is usually out of character with the rest of an analytical paper. A more sophisticated commentary, rather than emotional praise, would be a more fitting tribute to the topic. Example: Because of the efforts of fine Americans like Frederick Douglass, countless others have seen the shining beacon of light that is education. His example was a torch that lit the way for others. Frederick Douglass was truly an American hero.
• The “Grab Bag” Conclusion. This kind of conclusion includes extra information that the writer found or thought of but couldn’t integrate into the main paper. You may find it hard to leave out details that you discovered after hours of research and thought, but adding random facts and bits of evidence at the end of an otherwise-well-organized essay can just create confusion. Example: In addition to being an educational pioneer, Frederick Douglass provides an interesting case study for masculinity in the American South. He also offers historians an interesting glimpse into slave resistance when he confronts Covey, the overseer. His relationships with female relatives reveal the importance of family in the slave community.

Works consulted

We consulted these works while writing this handout. This is not a comprehensive list of resources on the handout’s topic, and we encourage you to do your own research to find additional publications. Please do not use this list as a model for the format of your own reference list, as it may not match the citation style you are using. For guidance on formatting citations, please see the UNC Libraries citation tutorial . We revise these tips periodically and welcome feedback.

Douglass, Frederick. 1995. Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass, an American Slave, Written by Himself. New York: Dover.

Hamilton College. n.d. “Conclusions.” Writing Center. Accessed June 14, 2019. https://www.hamilton.edu//academics/centers/writing/writing-resources/conclusions .

Holewa, Randa. 2004. “Strategies for Writing a Conclusion.” LEO: Literacy Education Online. Last updated February 19, 2004. https://leo.stcloudstate.edu/acadwrite/conclude.html.

You may reproduce it for non-commercial use if you use the entire handout and attribute the source: The Writing Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

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Writing Your Thesis Conclusion Section: Making the last impression count

A thesis conclusion is the final section of a master’s or a Ph.D. thesis that summarizes the main findings of the research and presents the researcher's conclusions and recommendations. This section aims to provide a concise and comprehensive overview of the research, highlighting the key contributions and significance of the study. A thesis conclusion should also address the research questions or hypotheses and explain how the findings relate to the broader field of study. Overall, a thesis conclusion serves as a critical component of the thesis, showcasing the researcher's ability to synthesize and communicate complex information effectively.

This article describes the importance of your thesis conclusion section. It covers the details on how to write a thesis conclusion section and the final steps required after you have written this section.

What is the thesis conclusion section?

It is a summary of the thesis, highlighting the importance of the thesis study and how it stands in the context of the field of research.

The conclusion section is the final part of your thesis/dissertation. It is a summary of the thesis, highlighting the importance of the thesis study and how it stands in the context of the field of research.

The discussion and conclusion sections are usually written as separate chapters. However, they may be written as a single section in some fields. If you are unsure which structure to use, ask your supervisor for guidance and check the requirements of your academic institution.

What should the thesis conclusion section include?

• An explanation of how your findings have helped to solve a problem and contributed to the knowledge in your field of research (refer back to your thesis question)
• An explanation of how your findings have contributed to a gap in knowledge (refer back to your  literature review )
• A discussion of how your findings fall within existing theories or assumptions in your field of research. Do they confirm or challenge them?
• A discussion of the limitations of your thesis study (if already mentioned in the discussion section, highlight only the important limitations in the conclusion section)
• Recommendations for practical applications of your findings and future investigations (if already mentioned in the discussion section, highlight only the key recommendations in the conclusion section)

End your conclusion with something memorable, such as a question, warning, or call to action.

We cannot afford further devastating and unnecessary deaths. The training of first responders on how to deal with a nuclear accident should be implemented immediately.

What should I avoid in the conclusion section of my thesis?

• Don’t underestimate the importance of your conclusion by treating it as an afterthought. It is a crucial section of your thesis study that incorporates the key results into a final takeaway message that the reader will remember.
• Don’t exaggerate the contributions of your research. Be realistic, and link your contribution back to existing literature.
• Don’t include new data, interpretations, or arguments.
• Don’t restate the results. Instead, incorporate the key findings into a final takeaway message for the reader.
• Avoid phrases like “To conclude…” or “In conclusion….” if the conclusion section is a chapter that is separate from the discussion. Your reader knows which section they are looking over.

Writing a great thesis conclusion section

When writing your thesis conclusion, consider what you would like the reader to remember if this was the only section of your thesis they read.

The thesis conclusion section must be able to stand alone as a separate entity from the other sections of your study. When writing your thesis conclusion, consider what you would like the reader to remember if this was the only section of your thesis they read. Thesis examiners often look at the abstract, introduction, and conclusion sections to gain an overall impression of your thesis study before delving into the other sections.

A great thesis conclusion section leaves the reader with a clear understanding of the main argument or discovery that resulted from your thesis study. It reminds them why you chose your particular approach, what you expected to find, and whether the findings met your expectations.

It is essential to highlight the relevance of your thesis study in the conclusion section so that the readers will be engaged and perhaps consider taking up one of your recommendations or collaborating with you on further research in your field of study.

The Sciences domain usually includes quantitative research, while the Humanities and Social Sciences(HSS) domain usually includes qualitative research. Therefore, the structure of the conclusion section is slightly different for each area.

Steps to writing a thesis conclusion section in the Sciences domain

• Restate and answer your thesis question

By evaluating the response to the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster in 2011, we demonstrated that there was an insufficient number of adequately trained first responders.

• Summarize your findings .

This study demonstrates that ABC affects DEF but raises fundamental questions about the role of GHI.

• Explain or suggest the reasons for your thesis findings.

The significant relationship observed between ABC and JKL (p < 0.001) could be due to the synergistic effect of MNO on JKL.

• Explain the contributions of your study to the field.

This is the first report of Species X in Central Africa. Prior to this, Species X has only been observed in Northern Africa.

• Explain the limitations of your study.

Because the response rate to our questionnaire was only 19%, the significance of our findings may not be generalizable to the general population.

• Mention recommendations for practical applications and further research.

Further large-scale studies are suggested to confirm the association between ABC and JKL.

Steps to writing a thesis conclusion section in the HSS domain

• Restate the study purpose and findings.

This research aimed to…

• Summarize the relationship with previous research.

These findings concurred with those of...

• Discuss the limitations of your study/anticipation of criticism.

I have only addressed the role of… It must be stressed that I deliberately did not…

• Discuss problems that occurred when performing your research.

We were unable to e-mail the questionnaire to all of the selected participants because some of the addresses no longer existed.

• Mention the implications of your findings.

Our findings suggest that ABC may be a vital contributor to DEF.

• Make recommendations according to your study findings.

Future research into ABC is essential to confirm…

• Mention the contribution of your research to the field of study.

These findings provide an alternative theory to that proposed by…

• Give an autobiographical reflection.

While undertaking this research, I gained valuable insight into… This thesis study has prompted me to…

Study limitations

If you didn’t mention the limitations of your study in the  discussion section , they must be included in the conclusion section. When discussing your study limitations, first identify them, then explain their impact on your study, and finally suggest how they could be addressed in future investigations. These three steps will help you to demonstrate the weaknesses of your study without undermining the value and integrity of your research.

Examples of study limitations: sample size, differences in methods used for data collection or analysis, study type (e.g., retrospective vs. prospective), inclusion/exclusion criteria of the study population, and effects of confounders Example study limitation statement: This was a single-institution study, and the results may not be generalizable to populations in rural areas…

Recommendations arising from your study findings

If you didn’t mention recommendations arising from your study findings in the discussion section of your thesis study, they must be included in the conclusion section. Don’t exaggerate the contributions or significance of your findings.

Recommendations should consider the relevance of your findings for further investigations or how your findings could be extended to other academic or real-world settings and practices. This could include:

• Addressing questions related to your study that remain unanswered

Because the cause of the association remains unelucidated, this should be the topic of future studies

• Suggesting a logical progression of your research using concrete ideas

Building on our findings that the number of staff trained to respond to a nuclear accident was inadequate, we suggest developing and rolling out a compulsory training program for all first responders.

• Suggesting future work based on the study limitations that you have identified

Future studies using a larger sample size from multiple sites are recommended to confirm the generalizability of our findings

Final steps after completing your thesis conclusion

• Write your thesis abstract. This is the ideal time to do so because you have just summarized the key points of your research in the conclusion section so that the information will be fresh in your mind.
• Complete and   format the reference list .
• Add an acknowledgments section thanking those who helped you (e.g., your supervisor, co-supervisors, and academic and support staff). Also, mention all organizations that provided funding for your thesis study and include the grant number, if applicable.
• Add any appendices.
• Add a list of abbreviations.
• Some institutions may require a list of figures and tables. Add this in if required.
• Create the table of contents .
• Create the title page. Check with your institution what elements are required and how the title page should be formatted.
• Some institutions require a declaration by the candidate stating that the work is original and that all sources have been cited. Check with your institution for specific requirements.
• Consider adding a dedication statement. For example, you may want to thank your spouse for their support.
• Proofread and edit your thesis. For professional thesis editing and thesis proofreading services, visit Enago Thesis Editing  for more information.

A thesis is the most important document you will write during your academic studies. For professional thesis editing and thesis proofreading services , visit  Enago Thesis Editing for more information.

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Review Checklist

Have you answered the thesis question clearly and concisely?

Have you summarized the overall argument of the key message?

Have you mentioned the limitations of your thesis study?

Have you given recommendations for the next steps and future investigations?

Have you clearly explained how your research contributes to or addresses a gap in the knowledge of your subject area?

What are the differences between the discussion and conclusion sections in a thesis? +

The discussion section mentions specific results and interprets them in depth. On the other hand, the conclusion section makes general statements that summarize the most important insights stemming from your thesis study.

What is the recommended length of the thesis conclusion section? +

The thesis conclusion should be shorter than the discussion section. It typically comprises 5%–7% of the overall word count.

How does the introduction link to the conclusion section in a thesis? +

The introduction section poses the thesis question and explains the background to the problem. The conclusion section answers the thesis question by summarizing the topic and the research findings.

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Writing a Paper: Conclusions

Writing a conclusion.

A conclusion is an important part of the paper; it provides closure for the reader while reminding the reader of the contents and importance of the paper. It accomplishes this by stepping back from the specifics in order to view the bigger picture of the document. In other words, it is reminding the reader of the main argument. For most course papers, it is usually one paragraph that simply and succinctly restates the main ideas and arguments, pulling everything together to help clarify the thesis of the paper. A conclusion does not introduce new ideas; instead, it should clarify the intent and importance of the paper. It can also suggest possible future research on the topic.

An Easy Checklist for Writing a Conclusion

It is important to remind the reader of the thesis of the paper so he is reminded of the argument and solutions you proposed.

Think of the main points as puzzle pieces, and the conclusion is where they all fit together to create a bigger picture. The reader should walk away with the bigger picture in mind.

Make sure that the paper places its findings in the context of real social change.

Make sure the reader has a distinct sense that the paper has come to an end. It is important to not leave the reader hanging. (You don’t want her to have flip-the-page syndrome, where the reader turns the page, expecting the paper to continue. The paper should naturally come to an end.)

No new ideas should be introduced in the conclusion. It is simply a review of the material that is already present in the paper. The only new idea would be the suggesting of a direction for future research.

Conclusion Example

As addressed in my analysis of recent research, the advantages of a later starting time for high school students significantly outweigh the disadvantages. A later starting time would allow teens more time to sleep--something that is important for their physical and mental health--and ultimately improve their academic performance and behavior. The added transportation costs that result from this change can be absorbed through energy savings. The beneficial effects on the students’ academic performance and behavior validate this decision, but its effect on student motivation is still unknown. I would encourage an in-depth look at the reactions of students to such a change. This sort of study would help determine the actual effects of a later start time on the time management and sleep habits of students.

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Dissertation Conclusion: The Perfect Way to End Your Dissertation

Table of Contents

• 1. Definition of a dissertation conclusion
• 2. How to write a dissertation conclusion
• 3. How long should a dissertation conclusion be?
• 4. Differentiating conclusion and discussion
• 5. Writing a dissertation conclusion
• 5.1. Step 1: Start by Answering the Thesis Questions
• 5.2. Step 2: Summarize the Thesis Findings
• 5.3. Step 3. Draw Key Recommendations
• 5.4. Step 4. Highlight the Contribution
• 6. Close the thesis

Dissertation Conclusion: What Is It?

The dissertation conclusion is the final chapter of the thesis, wrapping up the research conducted and summarizing the key outcomes of a discussion section.

How To Write A Dissertation Conclusion

• Answer the research questions of the study . These are solutions to the questions that you brought forward in the first chapter of the dissertation.
• Summarize the dissertation/ your study . The summary captures the key arguments brought out in the dissertations and also reflects on them.
• Draw the main recommendations . These are further elaborations on the recommendations that you drew in the discussion.
• Demonstrate the contribution you have made . This gives your readers a clear impression of the impact that you have made with the dissertation in the area of study.

When thinking of how to write thesis conclusion, it is important to make it easy-to-read, concise, and fun to read. Your goal should be putting across the argument that your dissertation brought out. Although you will most probably have handled the introduction, literature review, methodology, and discussion of the dissertation, the importance of the dissertation conclusion cannot be underestimated.

• It answers the research questions of the study.
• It provides you with the opportunity to summarize the findings of the study.
• Offers you the opportunity to make recommendations for additional studies.
• Clearly highlights the additional knowledge that your dissertation has added.

How Long Should a Dissertation Conclusion be?

Before we can dig deeper into the main ways to start a conclusion of a thesis, it is prudent to know how long it should be.

The recommended length of a dissertation conclusion is 5-7% of the overall word count .

But you should note that empirical scientific studies, which are shorter, rock shorter conclusions compared to those of studies in humanities. You might want to check a dissertation conclusion sample from a top student or expert to see how he/she did the conclusion.

Differentiating Conclusion and Discussion

Taking a closer look, you might notice that a dissertation conclusion and discussion have some similar components. Indeed, some universities recommend combining the conclusion and discussion.

The main difference between the two is that a conclusion is shorter and takes a more general perspective compared to the discussion. Note that a conclusion should not introduce new information or arguments.

Writing A Dissertation Conclusion

To make concluding your thesis easy and direct, you should follow these four steps. Since you are concluding, it is important to have the arguments clear both in your mind and the thesis. Here is a step-by-step guide on how to conclude a thesis.

Step 1: Start by Answering the Thesis Questions

If you have been wondering how to start a thesis conclusion, the best way is restating the main study questions and thesis . The conclusion offers you the chance to show the reader that the thesis achieved the core goal it was intended to. So, it is important to craft a straightforward answer to the questions of the research. Remember to avoid simply restating the findings because you will sound repetitive. Instead, synthesize them and put them across in an easy-to-remember manner. See the examples of how to restate thesis in conclusion.

By evaluating the fast-changing representation of migration and Italy border policy in the past 15 years, this demonstrated that media discourse can help to shape the decision making in a country.

Step 2: Summarize the Thesis Findings

The person who is reading your dissertation conclusion has come a long way from the first chapter. Before finishing reading the study, this is a great opportunity to remind him/her why you started working on the study in the first place. Well, go a step further and demonstrate how articulately the results from the study synched with your main expectations. So, summarize the study coherently, showing the entire journey that was followed during the study.

At this point, many students find themselves doing a lot of repetition, which can make the conclusion boring. Instead of simply summarizing chapters, consider using a reflective approach. For example, how effectively did the findings answer the questions of the study? Here are some examples of how to do it:

This study strongly demonstrates that Y, but further raises fundamental questions about X and Z

Step 3. Draw Key Recommendations

Although you are likely to have highlighted the recommendations when writing the discussions, here is another opportunity to provide further elaboration. So, how do you do it? Here are some examples :

From these conclusions, researchers should factor …. To comprehend the impacts of the findings brought out in this study, more studies could help to find out … Additional studies are required to bring out the relationship between …

Here, it is important to be factual. Remember that when you call for additional studies, a question about it could be thrown your way during the thesis defense.

Step 4. Highlight the Contribution that Your Thesis has made in Your Area of Study

As you close the thesis, your reader should not be left in doubt about the contribution that you made to knowledge in the area of study. Here are some unique ways that you can achieve this:

Revisit the main problem of the study and demonstrate how the study solves it. Using the literature review, demonstrate how the study helped to seal the gaps that existed there.

Close the Thesis

After writing the thesis, you are finally approaching the end. So, it is the best moment to hit the final steps because everything is still clear and fresh in mind. Make sure to also check another top example of conclusion in thesis and compare it with yours. The aim is to make your conclusion look better. Here are the main things that you need to work on:

• The abstract. Although this is coming in the last part of the dissertation, it is positioned before the table of content of the dissertation.
• Reference list.
• Appendices.
• Proofread your dissertation.

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The conclusion is intended to help the reader understand why your research should matter to them after they have finished reading the paper. A conclusion is not merely a summary of the main topics covered or a re-statement of your research problem, but a synthesis of key points derived from the findings of your study and, if applicable, where you recommend new areas for future research. For most college-level research papers, two or three well-developed paragraphs is sufficient for a conclusion, although in some cases, more paragraphs may be required in describing the key findings and their significance.

Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University.

Importance of a Good Conclusion

A well-written conclusion provides you with important opportunities to demonstrate to the reader your understanding of the research problem. These include:

• Presenting the last word on the issues you raised in your paper . Just as the introduction gives a first impression to your reader, the conclusion offers a chance to leave a lasting impression. Do this, for example, by highlighting key findings in your analysis that advance new understanding about the research problem, that are unusual or unexpected, or that have important implications applied to practice.
• Summarizing your thoughts and conveying the larger significance of your study . The conclusion is an opportunity to succinctly re-emphasize  your answer to the "So What?" question by placing the study within the context of how your research advances past research about the topic.
• Identifying how a gap in the literature has been addressed . The conclusion can be where you describe how a previously identified gap in the literature [first identified in your literature review section] has been addressed by your research and why this contribution is significant.
• Demonstrating the importance of your ideas . Don't be shy. The conclusion offers an opportunity to elaborate on the impact and significance of your findings. This is particularly important if your study approached examining the research problem from an unusual or innovative perspective.
• Introducing possible new or expanded ways of thinking about the research problem . This does not refer to introducing new information [which should be avoided], but to offer new insight and creative approaches for framing or contextualizing the research problem based on the results of your study.

Bunton, David. “The Structure of PhD Conclusion Chapters.” Journal of English for Academic Purposes 4 (July 2005): 207–224; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Structure and Writing Style

I.  General Rules

The general function of your paper's conclusion is to restate the main argument . It reminds the reader of the strengths of your main argument(s) and reiterates the most important evidence supporting those argument(s). Do this by clearly summarizing the context, background, and necessity of pursuing the research problem you investigated in relation to an issue, controversy, or a gap found in the literature. However, make sure that your conclusion is not simply a repetitive summary of the findings. This reduces the impact of the argument(s) you have developed in your paper.

When writing the conclusion to your paper, follow these general rules:

• Present your conclusions in clear, concise language. Re-state the purpose of your study, then describe how your findings differ or support those of other studies and why [i.e., what were the unique, new, or crucial contributions your study made to the overall research about your topic?].
• Do not simply reiterate your findings or the discussion of your results. Provide a synthesis of arguments presented in the paper to show how these converge to address the research problem and the overall objectives of your study.
• Indicate opportunities for future research if you haven't already done so in the discussion section of your paper. Highlighting the need for further research provides the reader with evidence that you have an in-depth awareness of the research problem but that further investigations should take place beyond the scope of your investigation.

Consider the following points to help ensure your conclusion is presented well:

• If the argument or purpose of your paper is complex, you may need to summarize the argument for your reader.
• If, prior to your conclusion, you have not yet explained the significance of your findings or if you are proceeding inductively, use the end of your paper to describe your main points and explain their significance.
• Move from a detailed to a general level of consideration that returns the topic to the context provided by the introduction or within a new context that emerges from the data [this is opposite of the introduction, which begins with general discussion of the context and ends with a detailed description of the research problem]. 

The conclusion also provides a place for you to persuasively and succinctly restate the research problem, given that the reader has now been presented with all the information about the topic . Depending on the discipline you are writing in, the concluding paragraph may contain your reflections on the evidence presented. However, the nature of being introspective about the research you have conducted will depend on the topic and whether your professor wants you to express your observations in this way. If asked to think introspectively about the topics, do not delve into idle speculation. Being introspective means looking within yourself as an author to try and understand an issue more deeply, not to guess at possible outcomes or make up scenarios not supported by the evidence.

II.  Developing a Compelling Conclusion

Although an effective conclusion needs to be clear and succinct, it does not need to be written passively or lack a compelling narrative. Strategies to help you move beyond merely summarizing the key points of your research paper may include any of the following:

• If your essay deals with a critical, contemporary problem, warn readers of the possible consequences of not attending to the problem proactively.
• Recommend a specific course or courses of action that, if adopted, could address a specific problem in practice or in the development of new knowledge leading to positive change.
• Cite a relevant quotation or expert opinion already noted in your paper in order to lend authority and support to the conclusion(s) you have reached [a good source would be from your literature review].
• Explain the consequences of your research in a way that elicits action or demonstrates urgency in seeking change.
• Restate a key statistic, fact, or visual image to emphasize the most important finding of your paper.
• If your discipline encourages personal reflection, illustrate your concluding point by drawing from your own life experiences.
• Return to an anecdote, an example, or a quotation that you presented in your introduction, but add further insight derived from the findings of your study; use your interpretation of results from your study to recast it in new or important ways.
• Provide a "take-home" message in the form of a succinct, declarative statement that you want the reader to remember about your study.

III. Problems to Avoid

Failure to be concise Your conclusion section should be concise and to the point. Conclusions that are too lengthy often have unnecessary information in them. The conclusion is not the place for details about your methodology or results. Although you should give a summary of what was learned from your research, this summary should be relatively brief, since the emphasis in the conclusion is on the implications, evaluations, insights, and other forms of analysis that you make. Strategies for writing concisely can be found here .

Failure to comment on larger, more significant issues In the introduction, your task was to move from the general [the field of study] to the specific [the research problem]. However, in the conclusion, your task is to move from a specific discussion [your research problem] back to a general discussion framed around the implications and significance of your findings [i.e., how your research contributes new understanding or fills an important gap in the literature]. In short, the conclusion is where you should place your research within a larger context [visualize your paper as an hourglass--start with a broad introduction and review of the literature, move to the specific analysis and discussion, conclude with a broad summary of the study's implications and significance].

Failure to reveal problems and negative results Negative aspects of the research process should never be ignored. These are problems, deficiencies, or challenges encountered during your study. They should be summarized as a way of qualifying your overall conclusions. If you encountered negative or unintended results [i.e., findings that are validated outside the research context in which they were generated], you must report them in the results section and discuss their implications in the discussion section of your paper. In the conclusion, use negative results as an opportunity to explain their possible significance and/or how they may form the basis for future research.

Failure to provide a clear summary of what was learned In order to be able to discuss how your research fits within your field of study [and possibly the world at large], you need to summarize briefly and succinctly how it contributes to new knowledge or a new understanding about the research problem. This element of your conclusion may be only a few sentences long.

Failure to match the objectives of your research Often research objectives in the social and behavioral sciences change while the research is being carried out. This is not a problem unless you forget to go back and refine the original objectives in your introduction. As these changes emerge they must be documented so that they accurately reflect what you were trying to accomplish in your research [not what you thought you might accomplish when you began].

Resist the urge to apologize If you've immersed yourself in studying the research problem, you presumably should know a good deal about it [perhaps even more than your professor!]. Nevertheless, by the time you have finished writing, you may be having some doubts about what you have produced. Repress those doubts! Don't undermine your authority as a researcher by saying something like, "This is just one approach to examining this problem; there may be other, much better approaches that...." The overall tone of your conclusion should convey confidence to the reader about the study's validity and realiability.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Concluding Paragraphs. College Writing Center at Meramec. St. Louis Community College; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina; Conclusions. The Writing Lab and The OWL. Purdue University; Freedman, Leora  and Jerry Plotnick. Introductions and Conclusions. The Lab Report. University College Writing Centre. University of Toronto; Leibensperger, Summer. Draft Your Conclusion. Academic Center, the University of Houston-Victoria, 2003; Make Your Last Words Count. The Writer’s Handbook. Writing Center. University of Wisconsin Madison; Miquel, Fuster-Marquez and Carmen Gregori-Signes. “Chapter Six: ‘Last but Not Least:’ Writing the Conclusion of Your Paper.” In Writing an Applied Linguistics Thesis or Dissertation: A Guide to Presenting Empirical Research . John Bitchener, editor. (Basingstoke,UK: Palgrave Macmillan, 2010), pp. 93-105; Tips for Writing a Good Conclusion. Writing@CSU. Colorado State University; Kretchmer, Paul. Twelve Steps to Writing an Effective Conclusion. San Francisco Edit, 2003-2008; Writing Conclusions. Writing Tutorial Services, Center for Innovative Teaching and Learning. Indiana University; Writing: Considering Structure and Organization. Institute for Writing Rhetoric. Dartmouth College.

Writing Tip

Don't Belabor the Obvious!

Avoid phrases like "in conclusion...," "in summary...," or "in closing...." These phrases can be useful, even welcome, in oral presentations. But readers can see by the tell-tale section heading and number of pages remaining that they are reaching the end of your paper. You'll irritate your readers if you belabor the obvious.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8.

Another Writing Tip

New Insight, Not New Information!

Don't surprise the reader with new information in your conclusion that was never referenced anywhere else in the paper. This why the conclusion rarely has citations to sources. If you have new information to present, add it to the discussion or other appropriate section of the paper. Note that, although no new information is introduced, the conclusion, along with the discussion section, is where you offer your most "original" contributions in the paper; the conclusion is where you describe the value of your research, demonstrate that you understand the material that you’ve presented, and position your findings within the larger context of scholarship on the topic, including describing how your research contributes new insights to that scholarship.

Assan, Joseph. "Writing the Conclusion Chapter: The Good, the Bad and the Missing." Liverpool: Development Studies Association (2009): 1-8; Conclusions. The Writing Center. University of North Carolina.

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What’s Included: Conclusion Template

This template covers all the core components required in the conclusion chapter of a typical dissertation, thesis or research project:

• The opening/overview section
• Summary of key findings
• Limitations
• Recommendations for future research
• Contribution
• Concluding summary

The purpose of each section is explained in plain language, followed by an overview of the key elements that you need to cover. The template also includes practical examples to help you understand exactly what’s required, along with links to additional free resources (articles, videos, etc.) to help you along your research journey.

The cleanly formatted Google Doc can be downloaded as a fully editable MS Word Document (DOCX format), so you can use it as-is or convert it to LaTeX.

PS – if you’d like a high-level template for the entire thesis, you can we’ve got that too .

Dissertation & Thesis Conclusion FAQ

What format is the template (doc, pdf, ppt, etc.).

The conclusion chapter template is provided as a Google Doc. You can download it in MS Word format or make a copy to your Google Drive. You’re also welcome to convert it to whatever format works best for you, such as LaTeX or PDF.

Is this template for an undergrad, Master or PhD-level thesis?

This template can be used for a dissertation, thesis or research project at any level of study. Doctoral-level projects typically require a lengthier, more comprehensive conclusion, but the structure will typically remain the same. Again, be sure to check your university’s requirements and norms in terms of document structure.

What types of dissertations/theses can this be used for?

The conclusion chapter template follows the standard format for academic research projects, which means it will be suitable for the majority of dissertations, theses and research projects (especially those within the sciences).

Keep in mind that the exact requirements for the conclusion chapter/section will vary between universities and degree programs. For example, your university may require that the discussion chapter and conclusion chapter are merged into one (this is common for shorter projects). So, be sure to double-check your university’s requirements before you finalize your structure.

How long should the conclusion chapter be?

This can vary a fair deal, depending on the level of study (undergrad, Master or Doctoral), the field of research, as well as your university’s specific requirements. Therefore, it’s best to check with your university or review past dissertations from your program to get an accurate estimate.

Can I share this template with my friends/colleagues?

Yes, you’re welcome to share this template in its original format (no editing allowed). If you want to post about it on your blog or social media, please reference this page as your source.

Do you have templates for the other chapters?

Yes, we do. We are constantly developing our collection of free resources to help students complete their dissertations and theses. You can view all of our template resources here .

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Casella Waste Systems: I Am Still Buy Rated As EBITDA Growth Outlook Remains Bright

• Casella Waste Systems reported 1Q24 earnings with revenue growth of ~30% and organic growth of 3.6%.
• Weak volume performance in 1Q24 was driven by non-structural factors and is not indicative of weaker construction activity.
• CWST's strong execution on M&A integration, sustained pricing momentum, and volume recovery support continued EBITDA growth into FY25.

Makiko Tanigawa

Following my coverage on Casella Waste Systems ( NASDAQ: CWST ) in Feb’24, which I recommended a buy rating due to my expectation that CWST could beat consensus FY25 estimates given the visible catalyst ahead, this post is to provide an update on my thoughts on the business and stock. I reiterate my buy rating for CWST stock, believing that EBITDA growth can continue at the current trend into FY25, supported by sustained pricing momentum, cost savings from M&A integrations, and volume recovery.

Investment thesis

On the last week of April , CWST released its 1Q24 earnings, which saw revenue of $341 million, a ~30% growth, in line with consensus estimates. Organically, growth came in at 3.6%, driven by a positive solid waste price impact (+5.5%) but offset by weaker volumes (-2.6%). On margins, CWST saw a gross margin of 32.3%, which was a 90bps expansion vs. last year, driven by the positive impacts of pricing growth. Improving employee safety, optimizing routes, and streamlining truck deliveries are a few other internal initiatives that have also driven margin expansion. As a result, the EBITDA margin expanded by 140bps to 20.8%.

I believe the focus on the 1Q24 was the weak volume performance (down 2.8% vs down 1.4% in 4Q23), which seemed to have caused a big sell-off in the share price (now recovered). However, I am not that surprised by this weak volume performance, as it seemed to be driven by non-structural reasons. Firstly on Collection volumes, I have previously shown my support for the company's strategy of shedding low margin accounts as I see it as a step towards improving the quality of revenue – this strategy drives up margin due to a better mix. Construction and Demolition (C&D) volumes were affected by competitor landfill, which led to a 2% decline on disposal volumes (a 7.5% decline within the disposal segment). Since the competitor's landfill is set to close at the end of the year, I think this decline magnitude is just a one-time occurrence. Management has also explicitly noted that this is not a sign of weaker construction activity.

C&D disposal dynamics are being influenced by a large landfill in the Northeast that is projected to close at the end of this year. We anticipate that C&D disposal market will readjust following the closure. 1Q24 call

CWST saw areas where volume grew, such as Municipal solid waste volumes growing by 1.7%. Commercial and roll-off collection volumes were also up in the quarter. Hence, if we view volume on a like-for-like basis (adjusting away the intended shedding of low margin accounts in Collection), the one-off impact from competitor’s landfill that is going to close, and the positive volume performance, CWST 1Q24 volume performance is a lot better than what was reported in the headlines.

Pricing remains very strong for CWST, which should continue to support growth. As noted above, solid waste prices saw 5.5% growth, which is tracking slightly above the historical trend (from FY16 to FY23) of mid-single-digit percentage pricing growth. CWST’s ability to sustain pricing growth is important for margin expansion, as it represents a large part of historical gross profit per ton at a 7.5% CAGR between FY16 and FY23. In the near-term, my view is that pricing might come slightly below the 5% trend line, as 2-4Q23 has a high comp base (average ~7.1% over the 3 quarters). However, pricing should revert back to historical trend line – which is in line with the past 10 years' solid waste collection producer price index growth.

My last area of focus is on CWST’s strong execution on M&A integration, which makes me positive that CWST could continue to sustain its current EBITDA growth momentum. Acquisitions and synergies, according to management, added 50 bps to the expansion of EBITDA margins in 1Q24. This is a really positive development, as management initially noted that acquisitions would result in some margin pressure in 2024 (note that EBITDA guidance has not been revised upwards). Also, CWST is already $4 million ahead of its goal of cutting expenses from the Twin Bridges asset it just acquired (again, no revision to the EBITDA guidance to reflect this). In addition, CWST has ordered 17 autonomous side load trucks for 2024 and has already installed onboard computers on 55 of them at its newly acquired Mid-Atlantic asset, so it should be able to reduce costs in 2025. One interesting data point brought up by management was that, regarding acquisitions in the quarter, direct labor represents 21% of revenue vs. the base business at 14%, which implies plenty of room to cut costs here.

Author's work

The risk reward today is slightly worse than the last time I wrote about CWST, as the share price has risen to $97 (last time I wrote it was at ~$90), but there is still potential for a decent gain of ~21% if it hits my upside expectations. My target price for CWST in the upside case is $118 (21% upside) and ~1% in the base case (using consensus estimates). The model mechanics follow the same as I noted in my last post, where I used management’s FY24 guidance and extrapolated into FY25 with 2 scenarios. The first scenario is if CWST sees 9% EBITDA growth, a scenario that, I think, is unlikely given the recent growth momentum (1Q24 saw 40% EBITDA growth), continued pricing strength, and solid integration on M&A. Hence, I believe it is possible that CWST can continue to see 20+% EBITDA growth in FY25. I have upgraded my EBITDA growth estimates by 100bps to reflect better-than-expected M&A integration that should drive structural margin expansion. Previously, I assumed 17x forward EBITDA for both scenarios, but I now expect 18x for my upside scenario as the 5-year average has inched up to ~18x. I kept my 17x assumption for the base case scenario, as lower EBITDA growth warrants a lower multiple.

As I said earlier, near-term pricing might see a slight dip given the tough comps last year, and this might cause some investors to panic, thinking that CWST has lost its ability to sustain prices, thereby driving downward pressure on the stock (like how the poor volume performance drove a ~7.5% drop in share price).

In conclusion, my rating for CWST is a buy rating despite the weak headline volume figures. In my opinion, regarding volume performance, the shedding of low-margin accounts and a one-time competitor impact distort the true picture. The important thing is that pricing momentum remains strong, and cost savings from M&A integrations are exceeding expectations. While near-term pricing might dip slightly due to tough comparisons, I believe CWST can sustain its current EBITDA growth trend in FY25, supported by pricing power, M&A synergies, and volume recovery. The risk-reward profile is slightly less attractive due to the stock price increase, but there's still potential for a decent gain.

This article was written by

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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