phd economic analysis and policy

The Ph.D. program at Harris Public Policy prepares students for careers in academia, industry, and government. It emphasizes a rigorous foundation in microeconomics, econometrics, and political economy, along with in-depth study of particular substantive areas associated with policy and policy-making. The program allows students to develop individualized and innovative courses of study in which they work closely with faculty members of the School and the University.

Consistent with the highly quantitative and analytic nature of the Harris School's Ph.D. degree, Harris has categorized the degree under a code which is currently on the DHS STEM list . Students on F-1 visas who have earned a degree that has been designated by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as a STEM degree may be eligible to apply for a 24-month extension of their post-completion optional practical training (OPT) so long as they meet all eligibility criteria at the time of application.

Ph.D. Program Requirements

Get information about the curriculum and academic requirements for the Ph.D. in Public Policy Program.

If you have questions about the Harris degree requirements, email the Harris Dean of Students Office at  [email protected] . Policies on the results of not meeting these requirements can be found on the Harris policies page .

Ph.D. Candidates on the Job Market

Meet the Ph.D. program’s current job market candidates.

Ph.D. Placements

See where our graduates go on to make an impact.

Ph.D. Workshop

Engage with our students' research.

Program Details

Director of graduate studies.

Steven Durlauf , Professor ([email protected])

Durlauf's research spans many topics in microeconomics and macroeconomics. His most important substantive contributions involve the areas of poverty, inequality and economic growth. Much of his research has attempted to integrate sociological ideas into economic analysis.

Associate Directors

Yana Gallen , Assistant Professor ([email protected])

Eyal Frank , Assistant Professor  ([email protected] )

Dean of Students

Kate Shannon Biddle ([email protected])

Program Director

Barbara Williams ([email protected])

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Doctoral Program

The Ph.D. program is a full time program leading to a Doctoral Degree in Economics.  Students specialize in various fields within Economics by enrolling in field courses and attending field specific lunches and seminars.  Students gain economic breadth by taking additional distribution courses outside of their selected fields of interest.

General requirements

Students  are required to complete 1 quarter of teaching experience. Teaching experience includes teaching assistantships within the Economics department or another department .

University's residency requirement

135 units of full-tuition residency are required for PhD students. After that, a student should have completed all course work and must request Terminal Graduate Registration (TGR) status.

Department degree requirements and student checklist

1. core course requirement.

Required: Core Microeconomics (202-203-204) Core Macroeconomics (210-211-212) Econometrics (270-271-272).  The Business School graduate microeconomics class series may be substituted for the Econ Micro Core.  Students wishing to waive out of any of the first year core, based on previous coverage of at least 90% of the material,  must submit a waiver request to the DGS at least two weeks prior to the start of the quarter.  A separate waiver request must be submitted for each course you are requesting to waive.  The waiver request must include a transcript and a syllabus from the prior course(s) taken.  

2.  Field Requirements

Required:  Two of the Following Fields Chosen as Major Fields (click on link for specific field requirements).  Field sequences must be passed with an overall grade average of B or better.  Individual courses require a letter grade of B- or better to pass unless otherwise noted.

Research fields and field requirements :

• Behavioral & Experimental
• Development Economics
• Econometric Methods with Causal Inference
• Econometrics
• Economic History
• Environmental, Resource and Energy Economics
• Industrial Organization
• International Trade & Finance
• Labor Economics
• Market Design
• Microeconomic Theory
• Macroeconomics
• Political Economy
• Public Economics

3.  Distribution

Required:  Four other graduate-level courses must be completed. One of these must be from the area of economic history (unless that field has already been selected above). These courses must be distributed in such a way that at least two fields not selected above are represented.  Distribution courses must be passed with a grade of B or better.

4.  Field Seminars/Workshops

Required:  Three quarters of two different field seminars or six quarters of the same field seminar from the list below.   

Doctoral programs

"Discipline Plus": Economics & Public Policy. Sociology & Public Policy. Political Science & Public Policy. 

A pioneering approach

In our joint doctoral programs, candidates combine their public policy studies with disciplinary work at one of the U-M's top-ranked social science departments: economics, political science, or sociology. 

Our doctoral students become full members of their disciplinary departments, taking a rigorous sequence of theory and methods courses. In addition, they become active participants in the Ford School’s collaborative, interdisciplinary, outstanding public policy community, working with world-renowned faculty who are also enthusiastic teachers and mentors.

The program is designed to appeal to students who want to pursue research careers in a traditional social science discipline and who see themselves as deeply committed to the study of public policy.

Our goal: for joint PhD students to bring the most rigorous tools of social science to bear on critical public policy questions.

See where the Ford School's PhD has taken our graduates .

Distinctive program features

The joint doctoral program is distinctive in these ways:

• Generous support : All of our PhD students receive five years of funding, contingent on satisfactory performance. The funding covers tuition, health insurance, and a stipend. Support may be in the form of fellowships, research assistantships, and teaching assistantships. Learn more.
• Disciplinary orientation:  Students spend most of their first two years in a department, taking the same sequence of theory and methods courses that are taken by departmental students. In addition, students have a departmental faculty advisor to help them become integrated into the department and to help ensure that they receive a thorough grounding in the theory and methods of the discipline.
• Empirical methods:  We expect students in the program to develop sophisticated analytical skills including statistics, economic analysis, benefit-cost analysis, evaluation methods, and qualitative and quantitative approaches to data collection and analysis.
• Research training opportunities:  Active engagement in research is a key component of the program, and our students have an array of research opportunities. All students have the opportunity to spend at least a year as a research assistant to a faculty member. In addition, all students attend a biweekly research seminar during their first and second years. Faculty advisors provide careful guidance for the independent research paper that is part of the third year.
• Interdisciplinary policy analysis:  A key goal of the program is to facilitate multidisciplinary training and research. We've organized coursework so that early in their studies students are given extensive exposure to different perspectives and approaches and have the opportunity to compare them. Similarly, our faculty, many of whom hold joint appointments, are engaged in multidisciplinary research and can assist students in bringing the ideas of different disciplines to bear in addressing policy issues.

Requirements

Specific requirements and additional information are available by program area: 

• Public policy and economics For more information about graduate offerings in economics, see:  http://lsa.umich.edu/econ/doctoral-program/courses.html .
• Public policy and political science For more information about graduate offerings in political science, see:  https://lsa.umich.edu/polisci/graduates/program-overview.html .
• Public policy and sociology For more information about graduate offerings in sociology, see:  http://lsa.umich.edu/soc/graduates/degree-requirements.html .

Meet a few of our graduates

Angel Harris (PhD '05), professor of sociology, Duke University

Christina Cross (PhD '19), postdoctoral fellow and assistant professor of sociology, Harvard University

Alexandra Resch (PhD '08), senior researcher, Mathematica Policy Research

Download our phd brochure, have any questions.

Kathryn Cardenas

Phd and fellowship coordinator, student & academic services, student & academic services.

Economics Track

In this section.

• Degree Requirements
• What We Look For

The Economics track in the PhD program in Public Policy provides a curriculum for doctoral students seeking rigorous disciplinary training, with a focus on applying the tools of economics to the study of major public policy issues.

Graduates will be prepared for academic teaching and research positions in schools of public policy, economics and other disciplinary departments, as well as policy positions in national governments and international institutions.

HKS has a strong core of faculty specializing in a diverse range of subfields of economics, including labor, public and applied microeconomics topics, behavioral economics and decision sciences, environmental economics, international trade, economic development, and other subjects.

The program embeds formal economics training within a unique interdisciplinary atmosphere of scholars and practitioners who are working on problems of practice in a wide range of settings. In addition, the PhD program offers teaching and research opportunities for students with leading scholars at HKS and elsewhere at Harvard. 

Economic Analysis & Policy Group

At the forefront of economic research.

The Economic Analysis & Policy group is, according to a recent external review, “one of the best in the world”. EAP faculty include internationally-renowned scholars and thought leaders in the application of economic analysis to issues of critical importance to business and society. The group has unparalleled expertise and experience in corporate strategy, antitrust, energy and the environment, health, banking, labor markets, international trade, and innovation. EAP faculty research has laid the foundation for understanding financial crises, improving corporate governance, and for understanding strategic interactions which led to EAP’s John Harsanyi being awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics.

Dedicated to Teaching

The EAP group has a long history of dedication to and success in teaching. Current courses taught by EAP faculty include Economics for Business Decision Making, Macroeconomics in the Global Economy, Competitive Strategy, Data Analytics, and Health Economics and Policy. These courses combine solid theoretical grounding in economics with direct applications to the business issues of today and tomorrow. Nearly all senior EAP faculty members have been nominated for a Cheit teaching award; most have won at least once and some have won Cheit awards several times.

A Tradition of Service

Many EAP faculty have held senior positions in the federal government and other public agencies. Among other positions, EAP faculty members have been Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund, Member of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, Deputy Assistant Attorney General for Economics in the Antitrust Division at the Department of Justice, and Member of the Governing Board of the California Independent System Operator. After a distinguished career of research and teaching, EAP faculty member emeritus Janet Yellen served as Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and now serves as Secretary of the Treasury. Closer to home, EAP faculty have a long record of serving Haas and the Berkeley campus in leadership positions including Ben Hermalin currently serving as Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost.

Ph.D. in Public Policy – Economic Policy Pioneering Economic Policy Solutions

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100% online, 8-week or semester-long courses

Transfer in up to 50% of the degree total

Earn a Ph.D. in Economic Policy So You Can Voice Ideas for Better Fiscal Policies

Do you want to serve the public interest and address today’s national and global economic challenges? Liberty’s Ph.D. in Public Policy – Economic Policy can help provide you with the advanced knowledge and training you need to lead effectively, whether you’re working for the government, a nonprofit, a consulting firm, or an international organization. Our Ph.D. in Public Policy degree program can build upon your existing expertise in economic politics and hone your policymaking craft to help you lead the way to a better, more prosperous future for our country.

Whether you want to advance your policy research or help train up a new generation of economists and finance policymakers, Liberty’s Ph.D. in Public Policy – Economic Policy can give you the education you need. With a Ph.D. in Public Policy, you can set yourself apart from your peers and develop the policy mastery you need to make a positive impact on our nation’s future.

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• 600+ Online Degrees
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• Transfer in up to 75% of an Undergrad Degree
• Transfer in up to 50% of a Grad/Doctoral Degree

Why Choose Liberty’s Ph.D. Degree in Public Policy?

You can complete our Ph.D. in Public Policy degree 100% online, which means you can stay connected with your family, career, church, and community while you pursue your Ph.D. You can also benefit from instruction and mentorship grounded in Christian ethics from faculty members who are industry leaders and experienced policymakers. Liberty’s online Ph.D. in Public Policy – Economic Policy will allow you to pursue academic excellence without compromising your values or passions.

As a pioneer in distance education, Liberty University is committed to bringing you exceptional academics without slowing you down. You can be confident that we’ve taken the time to learn what’s important to you. We provide our students with a quality, affordable education in a convenient format. Choose a school that looks forward to working with you to accomplish your personal and career goals.

What Will You Study in Liberty’s Doctoral Degree in Public Policy – Economics?

This online doctoral degree can help train you to effectively shape economic policy in the areas of legislation, communications, politics, education, and international relations. You will complete an advanced study of policy and governmental functions while you pursue original research in an area of your choice.

By combining public policy with fiscal training for national and global contexts, you can gain a well-rounded understanding of the public policy field. Our degree is designed to help equip you to analyze problems and develop effective solutions.

Potential Career Opportunities

• Economic policy researcher
• Government administrator
• Senior public policy analyst

Featured Courses

• PLCY 700 – Foundations of Public Policy
• PLCY 704 – Economics and Public Policy
• PLCY 805 – Policy Analysis and Research Design
• PLCY 870 – Introduction to Economic Policy Studies

Degree Information

• This program falls under our Helms School of Government .
• View our Graduate Government Course Guides (login required).

Degree Completion Plan (PDF)

Not sure what to choose?

Speak to one of our admissions specialists to help you choose the program that best fits your needs.

• Tuition & Aid

Your success is our success, which is why we are committed to providing quality academics at an affordable tuition rate. While other colleges are increasing their tuition, we have frozen tuition rates for the majority of our undergraduate, graduate, and doctoral programs for the past 9 years – and counting.

Eligible current and former military service members and their spouses may qualify for a special rate of $300/credit hour ( learn more ) .

All Tuition & Fees

Financial Aid & Scholarships

Financial Aid Forms & Eligibility

Scholarship Opportunities

Admission Information for the Ph.D. in Public Policy

Admission requirements.

• A non-refundable, non-transferable $50 application fee will be posted on the current application upon enrollment (waived for qualifying service members, veterans, and military spouses – documentation verifying military status is required) .
• Send official college transcripts (mailed as sealed, unopened copies or sent via a direct electronic transcript system). A regionally or nationally accredited master’s degree with at least a 3.0 GPA is required for admission in good standing.
• Applicants whose native language is other than English must submit official scores for the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) or an approved alternative assessment. For information on alternative assessments or TOEFL waivers, please call Admissions or view the official International Admissions policy .

Preliminary Acceptance

If you are sending in a preliminary transcript for acceptance, you must:

• Be in your final term and planning to start your doctoral degree after the last day of class for your master’s degree.
• Complete a Master’s Self-Certification Form confirming your completion date. You may download the form from the Forms and Downloads page or contact an admissions counselor to submit the form on your behalf.
• Submit an official transcript to confirm that you are in your final term. The preliminary transcript must show that you are within 6 credit hours of completion for a 30-48 credit hour master’s degree or within 9 credit hours of completion for a 49+ credit hour master’s degree.
• Send in an additional, final official transcript with a conferral date on it by the end of your first semester of enrollment in the new doctoral degree.

Transcript Policies

Official college transcript policy.

An acceptable official college transcript is one that has been issued directly from the institution and is in a sealed envelope. If you have one in your possession, it must meet the same requirements. If your previous institution offers electronic official transcript processing, they can send the document directly to [email protected] .

Admissions Office Contact Information

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Email for Documents

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Liberty University is dedicated to providing world-class educational experiences to military students across the globe.

Who May Qualify?

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Military Tuition Discount

We want to help you find the doctoral degree you want – at a price you’ve earned. As a thank-you for your military service, Liberty University offers eligible current and former service members like you or your spouse multiple pathways to earn a doctoral degree for only $300/credit hour . Find out how you can take advantage of this unique opportunity as you work toward your goal of reaching the pinnacle of your profession – for less.

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Course Catalog | Liberty University

Public policy (ph.d.) - economic policy.

Important: This degree plan is effective for those starting this degree program in fall 2023 through summer 2024. This degree plan will remain in effect for students who do not break enrollment or who do not change degree programs, concentrations, or cognates.

PLCY 815 Advanced Quantitative Methods I (3 c.h.) and PLCY 816 Advanced Quantitative Methods II (3 c.h.) may be substituted for PLCY 810 Quantitative Methods I (3 c.h.) and PLCY 811 Quantitative Methods II (3 c.h.) by permission of the Department Chair

Once the student enters the Dissertation phase, he/she must maintain continuous enrollment (Fall, Spring, and Summer semesters) until all degree requirements are completed

Any student who is not ready for enrollment in  PLCY 990 Dissertation IV - Dissertation Defense (0 c.h.)  after completing  PLCY 989 Dissertation III (5 c.h.)  may be required, as determined by the student’s dissertation chair, to repeat  PLCY 989 Dissertation III (5 c.h.)  until deemed ready for enrollment in  PLCY 990 Dissertation IV - Dissertation Defense (0 c.h.)

All applicable prerequisites must be met

Graduation Requirements

• Complete 60 hours
• A maximum of 50% of a post-graduate and doctoral degree may be transferred if approved and allowable, including credit from an earned degree from Liberty University on the same academic level
• No grades lower than a B- may be applied to the degree
• Successful completion of Research Concept
• Successful defense of Dissertation
• Degree must be completed within 7 years
• Submission of Degree Completion Application must be completed within the last semester of a student’s anticipated graduation date

Program Offered in Online Format

PLCY 815 and PLCY 816 may be substituted for PLCY 810 and PLCY 811 by permission of Department Chair.

Once the student enters the Dissertation phase, he/she must maintain continuous enrollment (Fall, Spring, and Summer semesters) until all degree requirements are completed.

Any student who is not ready for enrollment in PLCY 990 after completing PLCY 989 may be required, as determined by the student's dissertation chair, to repeat PLCY 989 until deemed ready for enrollment in PLCY 990 .

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Liberty University 2023-2024 Undergraduate Catalog

A PDF of the entire 2023-2024 Undergraduate Catalog.

Liberty University 2023-2024 Graduate Catalog

A PDF of the entire 2023-2024 Graduate Catalog.

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Community Development and Applied Economics

• Undergraduate Programs
• Community and International Development
• Community Centered Design Major
• Community Entrepreneurship
• Public Communication
• CDAE Minors
• Internships
• Dual Degree Program - Vermont Law & Graduate School
• Graduate Programs
• Master of Science in CDAE
• Master of Public Administration
• Master of Science in CDAE - Accelerated
• Master of Public Administration - Accelerated
• Peace Corps Coverdell Program
• Certificate of Graduate Studies in Community Resilience and Planning

Ph.D. in Sustainable Development Policy, Economics and Governance

• Courses in CDAE
• Faculty and Staff
• Advising and Student Support
• Internship Program
• Peace Corps at UVM

College of Agriculture and Life Sciences

The Sustainable Development Policy, Economics and Governance (SDPEG) Ph.D. program offers a transdisciplinary doctoral education in the policies, practices and theories of sustainable development. By offering a core curriculum that includes applied policy and economic analysis, governance and process design, social science methods, and professional skills development, the program produces graduates capable of conducting original, applied research that is designed to support sustainability and resiliency across social, ecological, and technical systems. 

This degree will prepare students to assume positions as policy leaders in government, higher education, public and private sector organizations, non-governmental organizations, and research institutes with the expertise and vision to inform local, state, national, and international policy.  

Asim Zia, Director and Professor of Public Policy and Computer Science

Travis Reynolds, Associate Professor

Dan Tobin, Associate Professor

Trisha Shrum, Assistant Professor

David Conner, Professor

Josh Farley, Professor

Sarah Heiss, Associate Professor

Qingbin Wang, Professor

Anaka Aiyar, Assistant Professor

Joe Ament, Assistant Professor

Kate Mays, Assistant Professor

Benjamin Dangl, Lecturer

Edward McMahon, Adjunct Associate Professor

Pablo Bose, Professor

Stephanie Seguino, Professor Emerita

Gregory Rowangould, Associate Professor

Donna Ramirez-Harrington, Associate Professor

Brian Beckage, Professor

Elizabeth Doran, Research Assistant Professor

Jane Kolodinsky, Professor Emerita

Christopher Koliba, Professor Emeritus

Kelsey Gleason, Assistant Professor

Dana Rowangould, Assistant Professor

Degree Requirements

Milestones, guidelines and timeline to degree completion.

Minimum Degree Requirements

The degree requires a total of 75 credits. A minimum of 51 credits must be completed in residence. The residency requirement is completed by courses that:

1. are taken for graduate credit through the University of Vermont, and

2. are taken after the student has been admitted to the Graduate College.

The program’s course of study includes: 

1. 15-credit core 2. Up to 24 transfer credits from prior master’s degree (12 out of 24 transferable credits must meet pre-requisite requirements in statistical methods, research methodology, economics and policy process theory) 3. 15 credits of a pre-approved Certificate of Graduate Study or a customized sequence of advisor-approved graduate level elective courses 4. 21 dissertation research credits

15 credit core includes:

Requirements for Advancement to Candidacy for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Students will advance to candidacy following completion of the core curriculum, passage of a written and oral comprehensive exam, passage of the written dissertation and oral dissertation defense exam, and acquisition of teaching experience in the field of sustainable development policy, economics and governance. A GPA of 3.0 must be maintained.

Tuition Information

International Student Admissions

Funding Opportunities

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Application Procedures & Admissions Requirements

We are no longer accepting applications for Fall 2024. Please check back in September 2024 for updated admissions guidelines. 

ADMISSIONS REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE:

• Master’s degree in public policy, public administration, economics, natural resources, engineering, ecology, food systems, political science or a closely related field, including social sciences, professional fields, and STEM
• Completion of graduate level course in statistical methods
• Completion of graduate level course in research methodology
• Completion of graduate level course in economics
• Completion of graduate level course in policy process theory
• Resume or Curriculum Vitae 
• Applicants must submit evidence of experience and success in the research process such as writing sample(s), and/or evidence of research experience(s) (e.g., theses, term papers, class projects, research reports and/or other descriptions of past research experience from academic or professional lives).
• The Graduate Record Exam (GRE) is optional.
• For international students whose native language is not English or who have not completed undergraduate or master’s degrees in English, scores from the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL), the English Language Testing System (IELTS), or Duolingo must be submitted.

Economic Policy Analysis (ECON 150, PUBLPOL 204)

Graduate Programs

The University of Texas at Dallas offers graduate programs across its eight schools. Students may view semester class schedules, class syllabi, and faculty vitae at coursebook.utdallas.edu .

• School of Arts, Humanities, and Technology

School of Behavioral and Brain Sciences

School of economic, political and policy sciences, erik jonsson school of engineering and computer science, school of interdisciplinary studies, naveen jindal school of management, school of natural science and mathematics, harry w. bass jr. school of arts, humanities, and technology.

Masters Programs

Master of Arts in Art History (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in History (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in History of Ideas (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Humanities (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Latin American Studies (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Literature (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Visual and Performing Arts (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication (30 semester credit hours minimum)

• MA in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication - Interaction Design Pathway
• MA in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication - Emerging Media Studies Pathway

Master of Fine Arts Programs

Master of Fine Arts in Animation (54 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Fine Arts in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication (54 semester credit hours minimum)

• MFA in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication - Creative Practice Pathway
• MFA in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication - Game Development Pathway

Doctoral Programs

Doctor of Philosophy in History of Ideas (60 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Humanities (60 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Literature (60 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Visual and Performing Arts (60 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Arts, Technology, and Emerging Communication (60 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Certificates Offered

• Certificate in Creative Writing (12 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Holocaust, Genocide, and Human Rights Studies (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Literary Translation (12 semester credit hours)

Master of Science in Applied Cognition and Neuroscience (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Speech-Language Pathology (48 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Human Development and Early Childhood Disorders (42 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Psychology (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Doctor of Audiology (100 semester credit hours)

Doctor of Philosophy in Cognition and Neuroscience (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Speech, Language and Hearing Sciences (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Psychology (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Certificate in Pediatric Auditory Technology and Habilitation (PATH) (15 semester credit hours)

Master of Science in Applied Sociology (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Criminology (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Economics (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Cyber Security, Technology and Policy (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Geospatial Information Sciences (36 semester credit hours minimum) 1

Master of Science in International Political Economy (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in International Political Economy Dual Degree (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Arts in Political Science (30 semester credit hours minimum)

• MA in Political Science - Law and Courts Concentration
• MA in Political Science - Legislative Studies Concentration

Master of Public Affairs (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Public Policy (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Social Data Analytics and Research (36 semester credit hours minimum)

Doctor of Philosophy in Criminology (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Economics (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Geospatial Information Sciences (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree) 2

Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Affairs (54 semester credit hours minimum beyond the master's degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Public Policy and Political Economy (75 semester credit hours minimum beyond the baccalaureate degree)

• Certificate in Economic and Demographic Data Analysis (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Geospatial Intelligence (GeoInt) (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in International Banking and Monetary Systems (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Local Government Management (12 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Nonprofit Management (12 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Program Evaluation (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Public Budgeting and Financial Management (12 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Public Human Resources Management (12 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Remote Sensing (15 semester credit hours)
• Certificate in Spatial Data Science (15 semester credit hours)

3. Program jointly offered by the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences and School of Natural Sciences and Mathematics.

4. Program jointly offered by the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, Erik Jonsson School of Engineering and Computer Science, and School of Natural Sciences and Mathematics.

Master of Science in Biomedical Engineering (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Computer Engineering (30 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Computer Science (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Electrical Engineering (30 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Materials Science and Engineering (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Mechanical Engineering (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Software Engineering (33 semester credit hours minimum)

Master of Science in Systems Engineering and Management (36 semester credit hours minimum) 3

Master of Science in Telecommunications Engineering (30 semester credit hours minimum)

Doctor of Philosophy in Biomedical Engineering (75 semester credit hours beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Engineering (75 semester credit hours beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Computer Science (75 semester credit hours beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Electrical Engineering (75 semester credit hours beyond the baccalaureate degree)

Doctor of Philosophy in Geospatial Information Sciences (75 semester credit hours beyond the baccalaureate degree) 4

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Liberty Street Economics

Look for our next post on June 14, 2024.

Can Discount Window Stigma Be Cured? 

Olivier Armantier

One of the core responsibilities of central banks is to act as “lender of last resort” to the financial system. In the U.S., the Federal Reserve has been operating as a lender of last resort through its “discount window” (DW) for more than a century. Historically, however, the DW has been plagued by stigma —banks’ reluctance to use the DW, even for benign reasons, out of concerns that it could be interpreted as a sign of financial weakness. In this post, we report on new research showing that once a DW facility is stigmatized, removing that stigma is difficult.

Thinking of Pursuing a PhD in Economics? Info on Graduate School and Beyond

Kasey Chatterji-Len and Anna Kovner

Becoming a PhD economist can provide a fulfilling and financially secure career path. However, getting started in the field can be daunting if you don’t know much about the preparation you’ll need and the available job opportunities. If you’re wondering what it means to be an economics researcher or how to become one, please read on. We’ll review how to prepare for a career in economics research, what an economics PhD program entails, and what types of opportunities it might bring. Economic education is a core component of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s mission to serve the community. To empower would-be economists, this post provides information for students who seek a career in economics research. We hope this information will be helpful to students interested in economics, regardless of their background and economic situation.  This information is most applicable to students applying to programs in the United States.  

Taking Stock: Dollar Assets, Gold, and Official Foreign Exchange Reserves

Patrick Douglass, Linda S. Goldberg, and Oliver Z. Hannaoui

Global central banks and finance ministries held nearly $12 trillion of foreign exchange reserves as of the end of 2023, with nearly $7 trillion composed of U.S. dollar assets. Nevertheless, a narrative has emerged that an observed decline in the share of dollar assets in official reserve portfolios represents the leading edge of the dollar’s loss of status in the international monetary system. Some market participants have similarly linked the apparent increase in official demand for gold in recent years to a desire to diversify away from the U.S. dollar. Drawing on recent research and analytics, this post questions these narratives, arguing that these observed aggregate trends largely reflect the behavior of a small number of countries and do not represent a widespread effort by central banks to diversify away from dollars.

Do Exchange‑Traded Products Improve Bitcoin Trading? 

Ken Armstrong, Asani Sarkar, and Leslie Conner Warren

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs) began trading in the U.S. on January 11, 2024. For investors, these ETPs purport improved liquidity and price efficiency, and more convenient access to bitcoin trading compared to other means of trading bitcoin in spot markets. Proponents also cite bitcoin holdings as a portfolio diversification opportunity due to historically low correlation with traditional financial securities. Others argue that bitcoin remains a speculative asset and that ETPs increase its interconnections with the traditional financial system. In this post, we examine the initial performance, trading costs, and price efficiency of spot bitcoin ETPs in the U.S. 

Veterans in the Labor Market: 2024 Update

Rajashri Chakrabarti, Dan Garcia, and Maxim Pinkovskiy

Veterans constitute a significant segment of the male labor force, and understanding labor market disparities between veterans and non‑veterans is an important component of studying disparities in the economy as a whole. In a previous Liberty Street Economics post , we have shown that even relative to a group of comparable non-veterans, veterans have lower employment and labor force participation rates. One year later, we see that veterans continue to experience lower labor market attachment and the employment gap has widened, though the earnings gap has closed.

The Changing Landscape of Corporate Credit

Nina Boyarchenko and Leonardo Elias

Firms’ access to credit is a crucial determinant of their investment, employment, and overall growth decisions. While we usually think of their ability to borrow as determined by aggregate credit conditions, in reality firms have a number of markets where they can borrow, and conditions can vary across those markets. In this post, we investigate how the composition of debt instruments on U.S. firms’ balance sheets has evolved over the last twenty years. 

Supply Chain Disruptions Have Eased, But Remain a Concern 

Jaison R. Abel and Richard Deitz 

Supply chain disruptions became a major headache for businesses in the aftermath of the pandemic. Indeed, in October 2021, nearly all firms in our regional business surveys reported at least some difficulty obtaining the supplies they needed. These supply chain disruptions were a key contributor to the surge in inflation that occurred as the economy recovered from the pandemic recession. In this post, we present new measures of supply availability from our Business Leaders Survey and Empire State Manufacturing Survey that closely track the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI). We will begin publishing these data on a monthly basis starting in June. These indexes indicate that supply availability had generally been improving since early 2023, but over the past couple of months, improvement has stalled. This trend is concerning since our May Supplemental Survey indicates that between a third and a half of businesses in the region are experiencing difficulties obtaining supplies, and many are reducing operations and raising prices to compensate, though to a lesser extent than a few years ago. 

Is the Recent Inflationary Spike a Global Phenomenon?  

Martín Almuzara, Babur Kocaoglu, and Argia Sbordone

In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation rose almost simultaneously in most economies around the world. After peaking in mid-2022, inflation then went into decline—a fall that was just as universal as the initial rise. In this post, we explore the interrelation of inflation dynamics across OECD countries by constructing a measure of the persistence of global inflation. We then study the extent to which the persistence of global inflation reflects broad-based swings, as opposed to idiosyncratic country-level movements. Our main finding is that the spike and subsequent moderation in global inflation in the post-pandemic period were driven by persistent movements. When we look at measures of inflation that include food and energy prices, most of the persistence appears to be broad-based, suggesting that international oil and commodity prices played an important role in global inflation dynamics. Excluding food and energy prices in the analysis still shows a broad-based persistence, although with a substantial increase in the role of country-specific factors.  

Do Unexpected Inflationary Shocks Raise Workers’ Wages?

Jacob Weber

The past year’s steady decline in nominal wage growth now appears in danger of stalling . Given ongoing uncertainty in Ukraine and the Middle East, this seems an opportune moment to revisit the conventional wisdom about the relationship between inflation and wages: if an unexpected increase in energy costs drives up the cost of living, will workers demand higher wages, reversing the recent moderation in wage growth? In new work with Justin Bloesch and Seung Joo Lee examining those concerns, our analysis shows that the pass-through of such inflationary shocks to wages is weak. 

Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers

Andrew F. Haughwout, Donghoon Lee, Daniel Mangrum, Joelle Scally, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Crystal Wang

This morning, the New York Fed’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for the first quarter of 2024. Household debt balances grew by $184 billion over the previous quarter, slightly less than the moderate growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2023. Housing debt balances grew by $206 billion. Auto loans saw a $9 billion increase, continuing their steady growth since the second quarter of 2020, while balances on other non-housing debts fell. Credit card balances fell by $14 billion, which is typical for the first quarter. However, an increasing number of borrowers are behind on credit card payments. In this post, we explore the relationship between credit card delinquency and changes in credit card “utilization rates.”

Liberty Street Economics features insight and analysis from New York Fed economists working at the intersection of research and policy. Launched in 2011, the blog takes its name from the Bank’s headquarters at 33 Liberty Street in Manhattan’s Financial District.

The editors are Michael Fleming, Andrew Haughwout, Thomas Klitgaard, and Asani Sarkar, all economists in the Bank’s Research Group.

Liberty Street Economics does not publish new posts during the blackout periods surrounding Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

The views expressed are those of the authors, and do not necessarily reflect the position of the New York Fed or the Federal Reserve System.

Economic Inequality

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Applied quantitative economic analysis and policy, ms.

• New York City

This program has STEM designation which includes benefits such as an extension for international students and a competitive edge in today’s job market.

The Foundation for Success

Our MS in Applied Quantitative Economic Analysis and Policy is the only master’s program in the New York area that combines public economic policy and quantitative analysis. The program prepares you for a diverse set of careers in quantitative research, business analytics, and/or government policy.

A Growing Field

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, median pay for economists with a master’s degree is $162,870 in the New York area. There is also expected to ample job opportunities in the future, with employment predicted to grow 6 percent annually from 2021 to 2031.

Learn From the Best

• This is the only master’s program in the New York metropolitan region that combines both public economic policy and quantitative analysis in its curriculum.
• The program is offered in a flexible online and hybrid learning format, either full-time (12 months) or part-time (24 months).
• You will gain superior, advanced training in applied economics with a special emphasis on data analytics and economic policy analysis.

Take Courses Like…

Our rigorous course topics range from econometrics, policy analysis, game theory, health economics, and data analytics, to the culminating master’s thesis.

• ECO 585 Applied Econometrics
• ECO 590 Data Analytics (R and Python)
• ECO 610 Environmental Economics and Policy
• ECO 638 Monetary Policy
• ECO 687 Time-Series Analysis
• ECO 690 Public Policy

Combined Degree Track

The Combined Degree Track allows you to replace up to 12 undergraduate credits with graduate level courses. This means you can finish almost half the master’s degree requirements by the time you complete your undergraduate degree, leaving only 18 additional credits to finish to complete a combined BA/MS or BS/MS degree.

Opportunities and Experiences

This program is a reflection of the economics department’s focus on policy, quantitative analysis, and research, affording it unique advantages, and builds on the department’s success in the National Federal Reserve Challenge, a competition that tests undergraduate college students’ knowledge of the US economy, central banking and monetary policy. The Pace University team has the distinction of winning the nationally-recognized, first-place award four times in the last six years in the national competitions in Washington, DC.

“Our program’s mission echoes Pace University’s strategic objective of preparing our graduates to become professionals in the field of economics and be well-prepared to make positive contributions to the world of the future as economists, business leaders, and economic educators.” —Joseph Morreale, PhD, Distinguished Professor, Program Director and Chair, Department of Economics.

Choose Your Career

You will be prepared for a career as an actuary, economist, financial analyst, market research analyst, operations research analyst, survey researcher, urban and regional planner, etc.

Job Placements

• Tim Little | Municipal Markets Specialist | Federal Reserve Bank of NY
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• Dylan Szeto | Lead Economist, Data Products and Urban Economics | Chandan Economics
• Brad Belotti | Senior Human Resources Coordinator | Cantor Fitzgerald
• Harun Duman | Risk Analyst | South Street Securities
• Marc Gosine | External Reporting Controller | JP Morgan Chase & Co
• Assanali Omarov | Senior Data Manager | In Advance Capital
• Jonathan Ruiz de Castillo | Health Data Analyst | InStep Health
• Jama Tasfay | Senior Analyst | AVP Financial Solutions

Economists’ median pay in 2018 (entry level, with a master’s degree), which is one of the highest paid entry level occupations (Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics)

An economics Degree has also been listed as a #7 lucrative degree ( Source: CNBC)

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Economic Analysis & Policy Requirements

I. preparation .

Admitted students are assumed to have a substantial background in economics. An undergraduate major in economics or mathematics or a graduate degree in economics or business administration suffices in most cases.

In addition, all students are required to have, or to obtain in the first year, skill in the use of the following mathematical methods:

II. Course Requirements

All required courses must be taken for a grade (not pass/fail or credit/no credit). Exceptions are made if the required course is offered pass/fail or credit/no credit only. Each course must be passed with a grade of P or B- or better. Substitutions of required courses require approval from the faculty liaison. Waiving a course requirement based on similar doctoral level course completed elsewhere requires the approval of the course instructor, faculty liaison, and the PhD Program Office.

III. Practicum

Students do not need to sign up for practicum in year one. In years two through five, students sign up for MGTECON 699 with the faculty liaison or the faculty advisor (after one is chosen) as a one unit pass/fail course in every quarter. Students must regularly attend and participate in one of the seminar series at Stanford GSB. With the faculty liaison’s approval, students may attend a non-Stanford GSB seminar series, in lieu of a seminar series at Stanford GSB.

IV. Field Examination

Students take two field exams in the summer after the first year in the program: theory and metrics. Students must pass both exams in order to successfully complete the requirement. Successful completion of the field exams is required for advancement to candidacy.

V. Summer Research Paper

Each student is required to submit a research paper and present it in the Fall quarter of their third year in the program at the time announced by the liaison. The paper has to be an original and novel body of work. Students should discuss the scope and expectations for the paper with their faculty advisor and liaison. The papers and presentations will be graded by the faculty with a Pass/Fail grade. A student who fails will be provided with a second opportunity to complete this requirement (paper and presentation) in the spring of the third year. Successful completion of the research paper is required for advancement to candidacy.

VI. Teaching Requirement

One quarter of course assistantship or teaching practicum. Requirement must be completed prior to graduation.

VII. Candidacy

Admission to candidacy for the doctoral degree is a judgment by the faculty of the student’s potential to successfully complete the requirements of the degree program. Students are required to advance to candidacy by September 1 before the start of their fourth year in the program.

VIII. University Oral Exam

The oral examination is a defense of the dissertation work in progress. The student orally presents and defends the thesis work in progress at a stage when it is one-half to two-thirds complete. The oral examination committee tests the student on the theory and methodology underlying the research, the areas of application and portions of the major field to which the research is relevant, and the significance of the dissertation research. Students are required to successfully complete the oral exams by September 1 before the start of their fifth year in the program

IX. Doctoral Dissertation

The doctoral dissertation is expected to be an original contribution to scholarship or scientific knowledge, to exemplify the highest standards of the discipline, and to be of lasting value to the intellectual community. The Econ faculty defer to the student’s Dissertation Reading Committee to provide general guidelines (e.g. number of chapters, length of dissertation) on the dissertation.

Typical Timeline

Years one & two.

• Field Requirements
• Directed Reading & Research
• Advancement to Candidacy
• Formulation of Research Topic
• Annual Evaluation
• Continued Research

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The Effect of Inequality on Redistribution: An Econometric Analysis

Using data on U.S. state and federal taxes and transfers over a quarter century, we estimate a regression model that yields the marginal effect of any shift of market income share from one quintile to another on the entire post tax, post-transfer income distribution. We identify exogenous income distribution changes and account for reverse causality using instruments based on exposure to international trade shocks, international commodity price shocks and national industry demand shocks, as well as lagged endogenous variables, with controls for the level of income, the business cycle and demographics. We find the degree of attenuation of market income shifts initially increases in quintile rank, peaks at the middle quintile and then falls for higher income quintiles, consistent with median voter political economy theory and what Stigler called Director’s Law. We also provide evidence of considerable and systematic spillover effects on quintiles neither gaining nor losing in the “experiments,” also favoring the middle quintile, what we label the greedy median voter. “Voting” and “income insurance” coalition analyses are presented. We find a strong negative relationship between average real income and redistribution and a modest effect of two year led inequality.

We are grateful to Tom MaCurdy, Han Hong, and especially Frank Wolak for helpful econometric suggestions. We thank Daron Acemoglu, Mordecai Kurz and Roger Myerson for providing helpful game theory insights and encouragement at an early stage. We also thank Jesse Davis, Kenneth Kletzer, Erik Loualiche, and participants in the Hoover Economic Policy Seminar for valuable feedback. This research was supported by the Bradley Graduate and Post Graduate Fellowship Program through a grant to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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How China Pulled So Far Ahead on Industrial Policy

The United States and Europe are trying to catch up to a rival skilled in using all the levers of government and banking to dominate global manufacturing.

Ningbo Zhongshan port in China, one of the busiest ports in the world. Credit... Gilles Sabrié for The New York Times

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By Patricia Cohen ,  Keith Bradsher and Jim Tankersley

Patricia Cohen reported from London, Keith Bradsher from Beijing and Jim Tankersley from Washington.

• May 27, 2024

For more than half a century, concerns about oil shortages or a damaged climate have spurred governments to invest in alternative energy sources.

In the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter placed solar panels on the roof of the White House as a symbol of his commitment to developing energy from the sun. In the 1990s, Japan offered homeowners groundbreaking subsidies to install photovoltaic panels. And in the 2000s, Germany developed an innovative program that guaranteed consumers who adopted a solar energy system that they would sell their electricity at a profit.

But no country has come close to matching the scale and tenacity of China’s support. The proof is in the production: In 2022, Beijing accounted for 85 percent of all clean-energy manufacturing investment in the world, according to the International Energy Agency.

Now the United States, Europe and other wealthy nations are trying frantically to catch up. Hoping to correct past missteps on industrial policy and learn from China’s successes, they are spending huge amounts on subsidizing homegrown companies while also seeking to block competing Chinese products. They have made modest inroads: Last year, the energy agency said, China’s share of new clean-energy factory investment fell to 75 percent.

The problem for the West, though, is that China’s industrial dominance is underpinned by decades of experience using the power of a one-party state to pull all the levers of government and banking, while encouraging frenetic competition among private companies.

China’s unrivaled production of solar panels and electric vehicles is built on an earlier cultivation of the chemical, steel, battery and electronics industries, as well as large investments in rail lines, ports and highways.

From 2017 to 2019, it spent an extraordinary 1.7 percent of its gross domestic product on industrial support, more than twice the percentage of any other country, according to an analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

That spending included low-cost loans from state-controlled banks and cheap land from provincial governments, with little expectation that the companies they were aiding would turn immediate profits.

And it was accompanied by what the United States and other countries have charged was China’s willingness to skirt international trade agreements, engage in intellectual property theft and use forced labor.

It all combined to help put China in the position today to flood rival countries with low-cost electric cars, solar cells and lithium batteries, as consumers across the wealthy world are increasingly turning to green tech.

China now controls over 80 percent of worldwide production of every step of solar panel manufacturing, for example.

“There’s enormous economies of scale by going big as China did,” Gregory Nemet, a professor of public policy at the University of Wisconsin who has studied the global solar industry. When the investments resulted in overcapacity, suppressing the profitability of China’s companies, Beijing was willing to ride out the losses.

President Biden and European leaders are determined to develop their countries’ manufacturing capacity in advanced technologies like semiconductors, electric vehicles and batteries, in part by adopting some of China’s tactics to nurture industries.

China’s rise to dominate key global manufacturing sectors showed the potential and power of national industrial policy, said Jennifer Harris, a former Biden aide who now leads the Economy and Society Initiative at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation.

“Was it wasteful? Absolutely,” she said. “Was it successful? Absolutely.”

Mr. Biden and the heads of European governments are more willing to call out Beijing for what they say are illegal practices like purposefully subsidizing excess production and then dumping underpriced goods on other countries.

Beijing denies that it has violated trade rules, contending that its enormous industrial capacity is a sign of success. Xi Jinping, China’s top leader, said this month that China had increased the global supply of goods and alleviated international inflation pressures, while helping the world fight climate change.

Mr. Biden said this month that he would impose tariffs of up to 100 percent on imports of Chinese green technologies including electric vehicles. The aim is to deny China any more of an opening in America.

European officials are expected to impose their own tariffs soon — despite warnings from some economists and environmentalists that the measures will slow progress on meeting clean energy goals. Europe has become more worried about security issues as China has tilted its geopolitical stance toward Russia and Iran.

The West’s embrace of industrial policy is a departure from the ideology of open markets and minimal government intervention that the United States and its allies previously championed.

Policies prompted by the 1970s energy crises were largely reversed when Ronald Reagan was elected president in 1980. Even the solar panels installed at the White House during the Carter administration were removed.

Except for certain security-related industries, the United States adopted the view that an unfettered market always knows best.

“If the end result was that you had to rely on other countries for key parts, that was OK,” said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Joseph Stiglitz, an economist at Columbia University, said the United States had long lacked a broader industrial policy and a coordinated strategy.

“Even the Democrats were afraid to take a more aggressive government role,” he said, “and I think that was obviously a big mistake with long-run consequences.”

From the perspective of some Chinese economists, complaints about unfairness from the United States and Europe are a sign of their own governments’ failures.

“The West’s decision to pursue neoliberal economic policies was a strategic mistake, which led to the de-industrialisation of their economies and provided China with an opportunity,” Zheng Yongnian, a professor at Chinese University of Hong Kong, said.

Whatever mistakes were made, political leaders in the United States say they are determined not to repeat them.

Last year, the United States and European Union made “significant inroads” in clean energy technology, according to the International Energy Agency .

And the Biden administration’s multibillion-dollar program is one of the most extensive uses of industrial policy in American history.

Mr. Biden’s tariffs are a targeted escalation of an American trade offensive against China that began under former President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on imported goods from China valued at more than $350 billion a year, drawing retaliatory tariffs from Beijing. Mr. Biden has kept those tariffs, has added or increased them for clean energy and has raised new barriers to trade with Beijing, including denying China access to advanced semiconductors from the United States.

Mr. Biden’s trade agenda is “very, very aggressive,” said David Autor, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology economist who has extensively documented the effects of trade with China on the American economy, including factory job losses.

In his view, there are critical distinctions between Mr. Biden’s trade strategy and Beijing’s as both nations seek to lead the clean-energy race.

China was more focused on sending low-cost exports to global markets, Mr. Autor said, and preventing foreign firms from dominating China’s domestic markets.

Mr. Biden, he said, is more focused on keeping out imports from China and denying China access to some key American technologies, like advanced semiconductors.

At a meeting last week in Italy of the Group of 7 finance ministers, leaders from both sides of the Atlantic warned that the United States and Europe must coordinate their protectionism and their subsidies if they hoped to catch Beijing in the race to dominate key industries.

“Overcapacity threatens the viability of firms around the world, including in emerging markets,” Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen said on Thursday.

“It’s critical,” she added, “that we and the growing numbers of countries who have identified this as a concern present a clear and united front.”

Patricia Cohen writes about global economics and is based in London. More about Patricia Cohen

Keith Bradsher is the Beijing bureau chief for The Times. He previously served as bureau chief in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Detroit and as a Washington correspondent. He has lived and reported in mainland China through the pandemic. More about Keith Bradsher

Jim Tankersley writes about economic policy at the White House and how it affects the country and the world. He has covered the topic for more than a dozen years in Washington, with a focus on the middle class. More about Jim Tankersley

Advertisement

What the 'inadvertent error' in the PBO's carbon tax analysis means, in as plain English as possible

Numbers in the 'counterfactual' scenario cited by carbon-tax critics will change: but by how much.

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The next time you feel bad about a mistake in your line of work, spare a thought for the folks at the Parliamentary Budget Office.

One can only imagine the sinking feeling in their stomachs when they realized they had based their high-profile analysis of the federal fuel charge — commonly known as the carbon tax — on calculations that included more than just the federal fuel charge.

It turns out the PBO's complex computer code had actually included the federal output-based pricing system — commonly known as industrial carbon pricing — when it wasn't supposed to.

• Revisions to PBO's carbon tax analysis will 'vindicate' government, minister predicts
• New head of Alberta oilsands group wants clarity from Poilievre on industrial carbon pricing

The PBO quietly updated a section of its website in mid-April to fess up to the mess up and retroactively added a note to its previously published reports. But it took until this week for many people to actually notice.

Speaking Wednesday on CBC's Power & Politics , Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux described it as an "inadvertent error,"  He said it would take until the fall for his office to rerun all its modelling and come up with corrected numbers.

Giroux also said he didn't believe the error would make a huge difference to the PBO's estimates of the "fiscal and economic" costs of the carbon tax. But University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe isn't so sure about that.

"I think it would be very hard for anyone to know in advance what the results are going to be just based on gut feeling," he said.

So at this point you're probably wondering: If the PBO can't get this straight and other economists aren't sure what's going on, what hope do I have to understand all of this? It's a fair question. And the answer is: You've got this. Even non-experts can wrap their minds around a boiled-down version of Canada's carbon-pricing policies.

Yes, this is complex stuff. But it's also important stuff.

Canadian companies are making multibillion-dollar plans based on carbon pricing . The carbon tax is shaping up to be a primary issue in the next federal election , and climate change a defining issue of our global future . To say the stakes are high would be an understatement.

So let's break this down.

Wait. There are  two  carbon taxes?

When people talk about the federal "carbon tax," they are typically referring to the surcharge most Canadians pay when filling up their vehicles and the extra fee on their natural gas bills, which are accompanied by rebates that are direct-deposited into their bank accounts every three months.

This consumer-level carbon-pricing system is the target of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's "Axe the Tax" mantra.

Poilievre has been relatively mum , however, on the other carbon-pricing system in this country: the one that large, industrial emitters are subject to. This form of carbon pricing long predates the consumer-level carbon tax. It even predates Prime Minister Justin Trudeau taking office.

In fact, it was Alberta that led the way on this front.

WATCH | At Issue: Will correcting the carbon tax analysis solve anything?

At Issue | Will correcting the carbon tax analysis solve anything?

Way back in 2007, the oil-rich province became  the first jurisdiction in North America  to put a price on industrial carbon emissions.

Oilsands facilities and power plants and other large-scale industrial emitters are subject to this parallel system of carbon pricing and, instead of rebates, they receive "output-based" credits. In a nutshell, the more stuff they produce (whether that's oil, electricity or some other output) the more they are credited to offset their carbon costs.

This effectively rewards industrial facilities that can produce the same amount of stuff with fewer emissions.

• Alberta's emissions down slightly but still make up lion's share of Canada's greenhouse gas
• Alberta sets another record for oil production as Trans Mountain expansion opening looms

For a high-efficiency natural gas power plant in Alberta, for example, it's a wash: their credits roughly cancel out the price they pay on their emissions. Less-efficient coal plants, by contrast, have to pay a significant amount. And emissions-free wind and solar plants actually make money from this carbon-pricing system. (All of which has helped contribute to Alberta's phase-out of coal and  rapid adoption of renewable energy .)

The details vary from province to province — and even within provinces. (To make things even more complicated: Alberta's system is different for electricity generation than it is for oilsands !) Most provinces now have their own industrial carbon pricing systems that are compliant with federal law. Those that don't are subject to the federal Output-Based Pricing System , or OBPS for short.

And it's this OBPS that tripped up the PBO.

For years, they said they weren't including these industrial carbon-pricing systems in their estimates of the "economic and fiscal costs" of the consumer-level carbon tax.

But, as we now know, they actually were — by mistake.

So what are these 'economic and fiscal' costs?

The "fiscal" costs outlined in the PBO report are the literal dollars out of your pocket due to the carbon tax.

This includes both the direct costs you pay at the pump and on your natural gas bill, as well as indirect costs in the other (non-fuel) goods and services you buy — in the form of price increases due to companies passing on their own carbon-tax costs to the consumer.

The PBO isn't the only group to have analyzed these fiscal costs. A group of economists from the University of Calgary and University of Regina published their own estimates in a peer-reviewed journal and came up with almost the exact same numbers . There's little controversy, at least in academic circles, about these figures.

Both the PBO and the other group of economists agree the majority of Canadian households receive more in rebates than they pay in these direct and indirect fiscal costs, combined. (This is the portion of the PBO analysis that the federal Liberals like to point to, and that the federal Conservatives like to ignore.)

What's been more controversial, at least in the wonkish world of policy analysts, has been the PBO's additional estimates of "economic" costs.

This is a more complex exercise because unlike the fiscal costs, which exist in reality, the "economic" costs require imagining a "counterfactual" scenario in which the federal carbon tax doesn't exist — and no alternative climate policy replaces it.

The 'counterfactual' world

The PBO uses mathematical models to estimate what Canada's economic growth would be like in that hypothetical world, which is inevitably higher than it is in the real world with the carbon tax.

The difference between that "counterfactual" world and the actual world forms the basis of the "economic costs" of the tax.

Those economic costs, combined with the previously discussed fiscal costs, show a majority of Canadian households worse off with the carbon tax compared to the hypothetical scenario with no carbon tax and no other climate policy to replace it. (This is the portion of the PBO analysis that the federal Conservatives like to point to, and that the federal Liberals like to apply all sorts of asterisks to.)

Some critics have argued, however, that the PBO's choice of counterfactual is unrealistic . The non-partisan think tank Clean Prosperity has said it "models an implausible scenario in which carbon pricing exists in the absence of other climate policies, and in the absence of investment in decarbonization."

Economists, meanwhile, often argue that carbon-pricing, which leaves emissions reduction largely up to the free market, is the least costly  kind of policy , especially when compared to more heavy-handed government regulation.

The Canadian Climate Institute has also said the PBO analysis "fails to consider economic benefits of carbon pricing and the costs of climate inaction, both in terms of stabilizing the climate and competing in a global economy racing to net-zero."

"Those broader factors are a huge part of the actual cost-benefit analysis around carbon pricing," it wrote in an article last year.

For its part as a neutral, non-partisan agent of Parliament, the PBO has said its report was never meant to be a cost-benefit analysis.

"We are mandated to provide estimates and analysis on the cost of policy proposals," Giroux said. "The government is usually quite adept at promoting the benefits of its own policies."

PBO says error in carbon price analysis shouldn't change overall conclusion

Giroux added that the PBO's choice of counterfactual scenario — a world with no carbon tax and nothing to replace it — is logical from an analytic perspective but isn't meant to be prescriptive.

"It's by no means intended to be an interpretation or a suggestion that doing nothing is the right thing to do," he said.

Again, though: the "counterfactual" scenario was originally meant to be — and presented as — one without the  consumer- level carbon tax. But now we know the calculations included the industrial carbon tax as well, by mistake.

So what effect will that have on the PBO's estimates of the "economic" costs?

They'll be lower but it's hard for anyone to say, at this point, exactly how much lower.

Something for the PBO to 'reflect on'

As we've heard, Giroux doesn't think the "economic" costs will be all that different once the PBO is done rerunning all its mathematical models in several months' time.

But Tombe, who has done numerous carbon-pricing analyses of his own over the years, isn't so sure.

Including the industrial carbon price in the calculations "could have a large effect on the numbers," in his view.

"That pricing system potentially has a larger effect on future rates of GDP growth than the retail pricing system would," Tombe said.

Given the complexity of the modelling, Tombe said "the details really matter," but he believes the PBO's reports are often short on the kinds of methodological specifics that one would typically find in economic analyses published by other groups.

"Most of its reports are light on detail," Tombe said. "They almost never provide enough information for external analysts to even approach a replication exercise."

• Analysis If Canada axed its carbon tax — and rebates — this is how different households would gain or lose

Tombe said the PBO is generally well respected but this makes its hard for outside economists to evaluate its work, which is something he hopes it will "reflect on" in light of this high-profile error.

"Because the details matter enormously in the larger-emitter system — how they're modelled, how they're simulated — I hope that they provide those details in whatever future report they come up with."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Data Journalist / Senior Reporter

Robson Fletcher's work for CBC Calgary focuses on data, analysis and investigative journalism. He joined CBC in 2015 after spending the previous decade working as a reporter and editor at newspapers in Alberta, British Columbia and Manitoba.

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