a modest proposal this essay is best described as

(92) 336 3216666

[email protected]

• A Modest Proposal

Background of the Essay

Historical background.

The essay “A Modest Proposal” was written by Jonathan Swift. It was published in 1729. The full name of the essay was “A Modest Proposal for Preventing the Children of Poor People From being a Burthen to their Parents or Country and for Making them Beneficial to the Publick.” At that time, England was ruling Ireland, and Swift was one of the ruling class members. The people of Ireland suffered a lot during this rule.

The group of English people ruling England was protestant, and the people of Ireland were mainly Catholics. As a result, there was a vast chasm between the two. The protestant elites did not like the catholic citizens and never took steps for their betterment. Instead, they imposed religious restrictions on them. Moreover, the common people of Ireland were left very poor by imposing many restrictions on trade for them. To add to this problem of poverty, the country was also overpopulated.

Jonathan Swift wanted this situation to change. He made many attempts to persuade the government of that time to take steps for the progress of the country and the prosperity of the people. He wrote many letters in this regard but never got any positive response. So, this proposal is another attempt at making the government realize the woes of the people. He uses his skill of satire to show how grave the problems of common people are. At the same time, he was angry with the passivity and apathy of the Irish people and wanted to awaken them.

Literary Background of A Modest Proposal

“A Modest Proposal” is a satirical essay by genre. The author of this essay, Jonathan Swift, is regarded as one of the best satirists in English Literature ever. This essay holds a special place among his satirical writings. Its effect is enhanced by the shocking change of mood in the middle of the essay.

Satirical essays are characterized by the use of irony and shifts of moods. In this essay, too, the author starts with the description of the miserable condition of the beggar women and children wandering and begging in the streets of Ireland. He seems sympathetic and describes the plights of these beggars. At this point, the shock arrives, and the author presents his strange proposal. He comes up with the idea that these poor children of Ireland should be butchered and eaten. His tone remains totally objective as he supports his claim through various statistics. In this manner, he satirizes the method of objective analysis of social matters, which was very common at that time.   

A Modest Proposal Summary

The essay opens with the narrator invoking the usual scene on the streets in Ireland i.e., the melancholy sight of female beggars begging along with their children. He says that these females are forced to beg for food because they are not able to work. The children grow up to become thieves or go to the Americas, searching for a better future.

After this empathy-inspiring description of female beggars and their children, the author goes on to claim that this is a matter of national concern. He says that these children, in particular, are a burden on the already crippled Kingdom. Therefore, he argues that if anyone can come up with a plan that can turn these beggar children into useful citizens, it will be a great service to the country and its people.

At this point, the author starts describing the authenticity and merits of his proposal. This proposal, he says, can solve the problem of beggar children. Moreover, it can also cater for all children of a specific age whose parents, even though they have not started begging, cannot support them in their current financial condition.

As the background of his proposal, the author provides the statistics of Ireland’s population. He argues that the proposals presented by others regarding this problem are insufficient to solve it. They have not considered the ground realities before proposing their schemes.

Having negated other proposals, the author proposes his own solution to the problem. He says that a child can easily be fed for the first year of his/her life. The total cost needed to bring up a child for the first year is no more than two shillings. The major part of the child’s diet in this period is covered through breast milk, which is free.

The problematic phase starts after the first year. The needs of children grow, and so does the cost of upbringing. So, the “modest” proposal provides a solution for one-year-old children. The author says that his proposal will result in making the setback an advantage. The children, who are now a burden on their families and the government, will become a source of food and clothing.

Moreover, the proposal will result in lessening the ill-practices of infanticide and abortion because the mothers will not have to worry about the expenses of upbringing the child. He says that many people commit these sins because they fear the expenses of feeding a child.

At this point, some more statistics are forwarded. The population of Ireland is around 1.5 million. Out of these 1.5 million people, around two hundred thousand women are adult enough to conceive a child. Out of these two hundred thousand women, only thirty thousand might be able to bring up their children without any financial worries. This leaves one hundred and seventy thousand breeders—as he calls them. Among these breeders, around fifty thousand children can be supposed to be miscarried or die during the first year of their lives.

So, it is clear that every year around one hundred and twenty thousand children are born in low-income families who are unable to feed them properly. Therefore, the problem needs to be solved. These kids cannot be given employment in the country that neither cultivates lands nor builds new houses. The children cannot be sold as slaves before they reach the age of twelve, and when they are sold after this age, they earn very little money. This money is not equal to the amount spent on their upbringing. All of them cannot become thieves as well before reaching the age of six years.

Having detailed the problem, the author forwards his solution to the problem. He says that an American person has told him that a child of one year is a very delicious and nutritious food. The child can be either boiled, or stewed, or bakes, or roasted.

Building upon this information, he says that a proper plan of action should be devised to dispose of the children born in low-income families. Out of the one hundred and twenty thousand children, twenty thousand should be allowed to live. They will serve the purpose of breeding and maintenance of the population.

However, a proper ratio of one male to four females should be maintained among them. One man will be adequate to serve four women in breeding. The remaining one hundred thousand children should be fed and fattened in order to be sold as a food delicacy. The author also suggests the different types of dishes that can be prepared with the meat of these children.

After giving the general idea of the proposal, the author goes on to explain specific details. The first point discussed is the cost of the meat of the children. An average baby at one year age weighs around twenty-eight pounds. This suggests that the meat will be more expensive than the other types of meat available in the market.

For this reason, the delicacy will be primarily available to the wealthy landlords of Ireland who have already eaten the majority of the parents of these children. Secondly, he points out that the meat will be available in the market all year round as the children are born every day of the year. Usually, there will be a surge in the supply during spring.  

The author moves on to explain the difference between the cost and sale price of the children. On average, a child can be nursed for one year for less than two shillings. On the other hand, the meat of the child will yield ten shillings.

This way, the parents will make an easy profit of eight shillings. At the same time, the buyer will also not be at a loss. He/she will have around four dishes of delicious meat and will have fame in his/her society. Moreover, the skin of the child can also be used as leather when needed. The author says that he is quite sure that there will be many people in Dublin that will be ready to butcher the children and conduct the business.  

The author says that he was advised to refine his scheme by a friend. The advice was that he should include teenagers in his proposal because there is a scarcity of deer meat on the tables of the wealthy landlords.

Furthermore, these teenagers are living a miserable life and are unable to find any employment. He, however, disagrees with this suggestion on two points.

Firstly, the meat of the teenagers is lean and hard, and its taste is also not very good.

Secondly, some people might—unjustly—censure this practice as cruelty. Therefore, it would not be wise to add this suggestion to the proposal.  

The author admits that there are a lot of other poor people that are unable to find work for themselves and are a burden on society. These include sick, aged, and disable people. However, he does not show any worry about them because these people are going to die very soon.

The author admits that he has digressed and comes back to his original proposal. He says that his proposal is beneficial in the sense that the Catholics will lessen in number in this way. The Catholics are disadvantageous to the country as they have very large families. He accuses them of their political activities and calls them the enemy of the state.

Another advantage the proposal will have is that the underprivileged tenants will be able to clear their debts by selling their children. In this way, the economy of the nation will improve. Consequently, a liability will turn into a product of the national level. Moreover, a new dish will also be added to the cuisine of the landlords.  

The benefit of selling their children will not stop at eight shillings only. The parents will not have to pay for the growing expenses of their children after the first year.

Moreover, the business of taverns will also shoot up as the poor people will have pennies in their hands. Morally speaking, the scheme will result in an increase in marriages and maternal love for children. Domestic violence will also go down for the period of the time of pregnancy. There will be a competition among mothers to bring the healthiest child to the sale. Other types of beef will then be exported more and will bring money to the country.

Inside the country, they will have to raise their standards in order to compete with the high-quality meat of the children. The author believes that the landlords in London will eat as much as the one-fifth of the total flesh procured in the whole country.

After explaining the minute details of the proposal, the author preempts any type of objections that can be raised. One such objection can be that the population of the country can be reduced very much in this manner. The author says that the reduction of the population is among the goals of the proposal as the population of Ireland is well above the limit. He says that this scheme was prepared for Ireland specifically and should not be applied in any other country.

The author rejects the already existing plans for the prosperity of the country and calls them unrealistic and naive. He says that he has become tired of such unrealistic schemes in the past and is now excited about his current discovery. This plan, according to him, is highly practical and realistic. This scheme also has the advantage that there is no chance that it will anger England. Rather, England will be happy to import this delicacy from Ireland. He says that there is a country that might be able to eat the Irish nation without preservatives.

The author claims that no substitute plan can equal his plan even if they are similarly easy, innocent, and cheap. The reason is that his proposal considers two main issues that cannot be addressed by any other plan. The first issue it addresses is that of clothing and feeding one hundred thousand useless children. The second issue is the extreme level of poverty. The author says that Irish people are so poor that they would be happy to be able to be sold for food.

The author says that this proposal is forwarded in the interest of the common people, and he seeks no benefit out of it. His own children have passed this age and can, therefore, not be sold. He just wants to advance the trade of the nation, relieve the unprivileged, provide for the kids, and give some pleasure to the landlords. 

A Modest Proposal Analysis

In the essay “A Modest Proposal,” Jonathan Swift satirizes the elite class of Ireland and their British colonizers. At the same time, he vents his disgust at the Irish people for not doing anything for themselves. It also mocks the cold and inhumane methods of problem-solving in the eighteenth century. At that time, people used to give solutions to the grievous problems of humanity on the basis of irrelevant statistics.

In order to catch the attention of the audience and to convey his point, Swift makes his proposal sound barbarous without a tinge of human empathy. He talks of human slaughter and cooking like he is talking about cattle or poultry. He takes the path of utilitarianism and talks about solving the problem of poverty and overpopulation in an indifferent economic manner. His proposal can benefit society at the cost of a few humans. Through this technique, he shows how irrelevant utilitarianism is to human problems.   

The Pattern of Rhetoric

In this essay, Jonathan Swift uses the traditional system of rhetoric to organize his argument. In this system, the argument is presented in five steps.

The first part of the argument introduces the subject and is called exordium.

The second part of the argument narrates the ground facts and realities. This part is called the narratio.

The third part of the argument confirms the claims of the argument through proofs and is called confirmatio.

The fourth part of the argument refutes any possible objections to the argument. This part is called confutatio.

The last part of the argument employs pathos and appeals to the audience. It also sums up the whole discussion and is called peroratio.  

In the exordium part of the essay, the author describes the usual scene of the streets of Ireland. He says that the sight of women beggars, along with their children, is very common on the streets of Ireland. These kids are shabbily dressed and are malnourished. This description introduces the problem of hunger, begging, and poverty.

To this problem, the author presents his cheap and effortless solution. The solution is of nursing the babies of these low-income families for one year and then butchering them to be sold as meat to the landlords.   

In the next part of the argument, the author presents the ground realities. He says that among the 1.5 million people living in Ireland, there will be around two hundred thousand breeders. Out of these two hundred thousand breeders, around one hundred and seventy thousand will be poor. If they give birth to children, they will not be able to bear the expenses.

Therefore, they become a burden on the country and their families. Subtracting another fifty thousand children who might die during the first year, a total of one hundred and twenty thousand poor babies are left. Among these children, the author proposes to leave twenty thousand for breeding and to butcher the remaining one hundred thousand for eating.

In this manner, they will bring income to their families and delicious meat to the tables of landlords. Moreover, it will help in controlling the population of the country.

In the confirmatio part of the argument, the author lists the benefits of his proposal. His proposal will help the poor people get rid of their poverty as they will get a profit of eight shillings and will not have to bear the expenses of children after the first year.

Moreover, they will be inclined to marry early and will leave behind the ill doings like abortion and infanticide. On the other hand, the elites will have a new delicious dish on their tables. The economy of the country will also move forward. At the same time, the number of Catholics will be reduced as they are not liked by the ruling class.

In the confutatio part of the argument, the author refutes any possible objection to his proposal. He says that some people might object that this proposal will result in lessening the population of the country. He replies by saying that it was one of his goals while he was forwarding his proposal as the country is overpopulated.

In the last part of the argument, the author employs pathos and says that his proposal is not based on any self-interest. Rather, his sole motive is the common good. He wants to relieve the burdens of ordinary people. As for his part, he says that he cannot benefit from this scheme as his youngest child is already nine years of age.

A Modest Proposal as a A Satirical Essay

The satire in this essay is of a very wide spectrum and ranges from the people of Ireland to the colonizers of England. Following is a brief account of the ways these different groups are satirized.

On the Irish Government

The government of Ireland is satirized for being apathetic and ignorant of the problems of the people of Ireland. They are also satirized for the religious restrictions they have put on the Catholics of Ireland.

On the Irish People

The people of Ireland are satirized for their inability to see and solve their own problems. They are shown to be so dull and lazy that they would even kill their own children but would not stand up for their rights.

On the English Rulers

The colonizers of England are satirized for their inhumane behavior towards the colonized people. The rulers of England are said to be ready to eat the whole nation. It is also said that England will have no objection to this trade of human flesh.

On Utilitarianism

The philosophy of utilitarianism is satirized for its inability to solve the problems of humans. The speaker of this essay employs a utilitarian approach in his proposal, and the ineptness of the approach becomes visible from the very start.

Tone of the Essay

The tone of the essay is thoroughly ironic and satirical. The author presents his proposal in a manner that the audiences are supposed to disagree with. He intends to mock the type of solution which his proposal has. In this way, the author does exactly what he wants to tackle. The inhumane speaker of the essay is the caricature of the followers of utilitarian philosophy.

More From Jonathan Swift

• English Literature
• Short Stories
• Literary Terms
• Web Stories

A Modest Proposal by Jonathan Swift | Summary & Analysis

Who is Jonathan Swift? Jonathan Swift was an Irish writer, poet, and satirist best known for his novel “Gulliver’s Travels” and his satirical essays. One of his most famous works, “A Modest Proposal,” is a satirical essay published in 1729. This essay is often studied for its biting social commentary and clever use of satire.

Table of Contents

Background of “A Modest Proposal”

“A Modest Proposal” was written during a time of great social and economic turmoil in Ireland. The country was suffering from poverty, famine, and overpopulation, and the British government’s policies were exacerbating these issues. Swift wrote “A Modest Proposal” as a way to draw attention to the dire conditions in Ireland and to criticize the British government’s handling of the situation.

Summary of “A Modest Proposal”

In “A Modest Proposal,” Swift presents a shocking solution to Ireland’s poverty problem: he suggests that impoverished Irish families should sell their children as food to wealthy English landlords. Swift argues that this solution would not only alleviate poverty but also provide a new source of income for the Irish people.

Swift’s proposal is presented in a straightforward and logical manner, but it quickly becomes apparent that he is using satire to critique the British government’s indifference to the suffering of the Irish people. By proposing something so outrageous and morally repugnant, Swift forces his readers to confront the reality of the situation in Ireland and to question the policies that have led to such extreme poverty and desperation.

Analysis of “A Modest Proposal”

Swift’s satirical approach is what makes “A Modest Proposal” such a powerful and effective piece of writing. By presenting his proposal in a calm and rational tone, Swift lulls his readers into a false sense of security before shocking them with the absurdity of his suggestion. This technique allows Swift to highlight the absurdity of the British government’s policies and to make a powerful statement about the moral bankruptcy of those in power.

In addition to its satirical elements, “A Modest Proposal” is also a scathing indictment of the social and political conditions in Ireland at the time. Swift uses his proposal to criticize the British government’s economic policies, which he argues have contributed to the poverty and suffering of the Irish people. He also highlights the hypocrisy of the wealthy English landlords who exploit the Irish peasantry for their own gain.

Impact and Reception of “A Modest Proposal”

When “A Modest Proposal” was first published, it caused a sensation and sparked a heated debate about the state of Ireland and the ethics of Swift’s proposal. Some readers were shocked and outraged by Swift’s suggestion, while others recognized it as a brilliant piece of satire that exposed the injustices of the time.

Over the years, “A Modest Proposal” has continued to be studied and analyzed by scholars and students alike. Its enduring relevance is a testament to Swift’s skill as a writer and the power of satire to provoke thought and inspire change.

READ MORE :

• Ebenezer Scrooge in A Christmas Carol | Traits & Analysis
• Gulliver’s Travels by Jonathan Swift | Characters, Summary & Analysis
• The Merchant of Venice by Shakespeare | Summary & Characters

In conclusion, “A Modest Proposal” by Jonathan Swift is a masterful work of satire that uses humor and irony to expose the social and political injustices of its time. Swift’s biting critique of the British government and its policies continues to resonate with readers today, making “A Modest Proposal” a timeless classic of English literature.

Was “A Modest Proposal” actually intended to be taken seriously?

No, Jonathan Swift wrote “A Modest Proposal” as a satirical piece intended to criticize the British government’s policies in Ireland. It was not meant to be taken literally.

What was the reaction to “A Modest Proposal” when it was first published?

The essay sparked a heated debate, with some readers outraged by its content and others recognizing it as a work of satire.

What are some of the literary devices used in “A Modest Proposal”?

Swift employs irony, sarcasm, and exaggeration to make his point in “A Modest Proposal.”

What is the significance of the title “A Modest Proposal”?

The title is ironic, as Swift’s proposal is anything but modest. It is a scathing critique of the British government’s policies in Ireland.

Why is “A Modest Proposal” still studied today?

The essay remains relevant because of its powerful social and political commentary, as well as its timeless exploration of the use of satire as a tool for social change.

Related Posts

When was the golden notebook first published, the title of the first book in j.r.r. tolkien’s “the lord of the rings” series, who wrote “the chronicles of barsetshire” series.

Attempt a critical appreciation of The Triumph of Life by P.B. Shelley.

Consider The Garden by Andrew Marvell as a didactic poem.

Why does Plato want the artists to be kept away from the ideal state

MEG 05 LITERARY CRITICISM & THEORY Solved Assignment 2023-24

William Shakespeare Biography and Works

Discuss the theme of freedom in Frederick Douglass’ Narrative of the Life of Frederick Douglass

How does William Shakespeare use the concept of power in Richard III

Analyze the use of imagery in William Shakespeare’s sonnets

IGNOU MEG 02 British Drama Important Questions / Previous Years Solved Papers

IGNOU MEG 01 British Poetry Important Questions / Previous Years Solved Papers

Who is the author of “the eye of the sheep”, what is the role of humor in australian literature.

• Advertisement
• Privacy & Policy
• Other Links

© 2023 Literopedia

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Remember Me

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Are you sure want to unlock this post?

Are you sure want to cancel subscription.

A Modest Proposal

Introduction of “a modest proposal”.

A Modest Proposal is an essay written by Jonathan Swift . The full title of the essay is ‘For preventing the children of poor people in Ireland, from being a burden on their parents or country, and for making them beneficial to the publick’ and is commonly known as ‘A Modest Proposal’ in its short form. It was published in 1729 anonymously. The essay is labeled as the best example of a juvenile satire , directing its arrow of ironic strictures on the existing personalities and figures of his times. The essay revolves around his suggestion of poor Irish children to be sold for food for the elite class of that time in a very mockingly serious mood . The hyperbolic suggestion, sometimes, evokes highly reprehensible emotions amongst the readers.

Summary of “A Modest Proposal”

Written in the first person, the proposal outlines the problem of the children that Ireland was facing during the time of Jonathan Swift. The problem outlined was related to the women beggars filling the streets of the Irish cities. Some of them have no means to feed their young kids and the kids becoming beggars was another issue facing the country. During this time the Protestant minority English was ruling Ireland neglecting the poor Irish Catholics. Jonathan Swift has tried to invite the attention of the government toward this problem but it seems that after all of his efforts failed, he has chosen this selected and novel way to attract the attention of the authorities.

As a proposer of this suggestion, Jonathan claims that he has a plan to deal with this problem effectively and efficiently. He states that after he has reserved some years of his life to think of the best possible solution to the problem of child beggars, he has come up with a viable set of solutions. He says that some of his plans have not proved workable in the past due to his inability to accurately make calculations. Also, while others have presented their plans they ‘grossly mistaken in their Computation’. However, in the case of this proposal, he has accurately made calculations before offering them in the essay. He says that a child is supported with breast milk and two shillings per year. However, for the child to enter into the professed beggary takes time and the parents are too poor to provide them. He proposes that the parents or guardians will release the child from their care after the presentation of this proposal finding it financially rewarding.

According to this proposal, there are 200,000 Irish parents actively giving birth to children by which means that if 30,000 of the couples can take care of them, 50,000 face miscarriages, leaving 120,000 parents having the inability to bring up their children in an appropriate way. His contention is how to deal with this explosion of the childbirth rate and what to do with this rising number of children, for they cannot be used in agriculture, or cannot be made skillful workers. They are also too young to support themselves, he says, adding that they also cannot be sold as slaves, or else they would fetch a considerable amount of money. Therefore, he has suggested a comprehensive plan to deal with this increasing birth rate.

Jonathan says that he has been assured by his American friend, whom he does not name, has told him that the meat of a year-old child is very delectable Whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled and without any doubt that it will equally serve in a fricassee or a ragout. Therefore, he has made calculations that if they are total 120,000 can be reserved for breeding, and the rest can be reared to sell to the gentry for eating. He states that the wealthy landlords would be the likely buyers.

The reason is that they have already devoured several parents in their greed for more and that they deserve to take lead in this work. He also suggests that by doing this, they would be becoming a source of increasing profits for a considerable number of mothers. He further goes on by mocking the Catholic church that the Catholics produce more children than the Protests who were ruling the country since they are against the birth control that was introduced during that time even though there’s a spike in overpopulation and poverty . If such people, he argues, prove their ability in doing business, they can use the hide and other parts of the children to sharpen their business skills such as they can prepare gloves and shoes from their hide or sell it in the market. Calling his suggestion “innocent, cheap, easy and effectual” Swift states that he has no personal interest involved in this proposal as he has no child and that his wife, too, has passed the child-bearing age.

Major Themes in “A Modest Proposal”

• Exploitation: Although the essay seems a simple satire, the underlying theme is the exploitation of the landlords of Ireland and England who left people with nothing to eat. They were thronging the streets to beg for food. The laws were unfair and maltreated the poor in favor of the rich or the elite class. The rents charged from the tenants and farmers were very high which led to poverty and begging. Therefore, the essay highlights this exploitation in the garb of this suggests that the parents could sell their children to feed themselves and that those children would be used for delicious dishes for the gentry.
• Greed: The essay also shows the theme of greed lurking behind the lines. As it is not obvious, it is shown through the presence of beggars including women and children, who are “forced to employ their time in strolling to beg sustenance.” It shows that they have been forced by their landlords to go hungry or feed themselves and their children by begging. In other words, the greed of landlords brought the poor to the streets. Therefore, the proposal hints at the greed of the landlords.
• Prejudice: The thematic idea, prejudice is not plainly noticeable but it makes up the background of the essay in that the British Protestants used to despise the Roman Catholics and have laws enacted to exploit their vulnerabilities, which left them to roam on the roads in search of food and security.
• Irish Social Apathy: The essay also underlines the Irish social indifference as many people were begging in the streets with children and the government and social responses were almost non-existence as far as the essay shows. That was also a major reason behind his proposal of selling of the children to the gentry for meat and other purposes.
• Poverty: The beginning of the essay shows that poverty was widespread in Ireland on account of the government’s lack of care, the indifference of the upper class and the landlords. The laws were enacted to crush the poor class, the reason that all women, children, and even men of this section of the society had been forced to come into the streets to beg for sustenance.
• Colonialism: Although it is not modern colonialism, English rule on its adjoining lands and countries, unlike Asian and African countries, were for extraction of the sources by exploiting the local population making the situation of living worse in the British colonies. The Catholics were subjected to religious torture and legal exploitation, leaving a chunk of the Irish population to face starvation or beg in the streets.
• Misanthropy: If read in literal teams, the essay shows extreme misanthropy of the author that he has discussed in his letter to Pope, yet when taken as a satire, it shows his love for humanity and his concern for the safety and security of the Irish children.

Writing Style of “A Modest Proposal”

Although the language is quite simple, Jonathan Swift adopted the rhetorical style in this essay to hook his audiences into reading it and applauding his style with detestation. The diction and sentences are formal, implying the proposer of the proposal is serious. However, the use of the trap Swift has exploited to hook his readers is quite unusual and interesting, for he has proposed this solution to end poverty by stressing upon the ills that poverty brings. The use of animal metaphors for human beings in a satiric tone has lessened the impact of misanthropy presented to satirize the Irish authorities of that time. The impact of this satiric-cum-serious tone lies in its impact on the readers.

Analysis of Literary Devices in “A Modest Proposal”  

• Anaphora : The essays shows the use of anaphora . For example, i. Therefore let no man talk to me  of other expedients: of taxing our absentees at five shillings a pound: Of using neither cloaths, nor houshold furniture, except what is of our own growth and manufacture: Of utterly rejecting the materials and instruments that promote foreign luxury: Of curing the expensiveness of pride, vanity, idleness, and gaming in our women: Of introducing a vein of parsimony, prudence and temperance: Of learning to love our country, wherein we differ even from LAPLANDERS, and the inhabitants of TOPINAMBOO: Of quitting our animosities and factions, nor acting any longer like the Jews, who were murdering one another at the very moment their city was taken: Of being a little cautious not to sell our country and consciences for nothing: Of teaching landlords to have at least one degree of mercy towards their tenants. This example shows the use of “Of…” as an anaphora.
• Anecdote : The essay shows the use of anecdote in the below example, It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. These mothers instead of being able to work for their honest livelihood, are forced to employ all their time in stroling to beg sustenance for their helpless infants who, as they grow up, either turn thieves for want of work, or leave their dear native country, to fight for the Pretender in Spain, or sell themselves to the Barbadoes. This example shows the anecdote used as the hook or attention grabber of this essay.
• Allusion : There are various examples of allusions given in the essay. For example, i. These mothers instead of being able to work for their honest livelihood, are forced to employ all their time in stroling to beg sustenance for their helpless infants who, as they grow up, either turn thieves for want of work, or leave their dear native country, to fight for the Pretender in Spain, or sell themselves to the Barbadoes. ii. As to our City of Dublin, shambles may be appointed for this purpose, in the most convenient parts of it, and butchers we may be assured will not be wanting. iii. But in order to justify my friend , he confessed, that this expedient was put into his head by the famous Salmanaazor, a native of the island Formosa, who came from thence to London . iv. For first, as I have already observed, it would greatly lessen the number of Papists, with whom we are yearly over-run, being the principal breeders of the nation, as well as our most dangerous enemies, and who stay at home on purpose with a design to deliver the kingdom to the Pretende. The mention of Pretender of Spain and Barbados in the first, Dublin in the second, Salmanaazor and Formosa with London in the third and Papist and Pretender in the last are examples of geographical and theological allusions.
• Asyndeton : The essay shows the use of asyndeton in the following example, i. I profess, in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavouring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the publick good of my country, by advancing our trade, providing for infants, relieving the poor, and giving some pleasure to the rich. The example shows the omission of conjunction between most of the clauses here.
• Dark Humor : The essay shows the use of dark humor in the below sentence , i. A child will make two dishes at an entertainment for friends, and when the family dines alone , the fore or hind quarter will make a reasonable dish, and seasoned with a little pepper or salt, will be very good boiled on the fourth day, especially in winter . This example shows the use of taboos of cannibalism in a light mood as if they can be exercised freely.
• Ethos : The essay shows the use of ethos . For example, i. It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. This example shows how the author has established his ethos by presenting a common observable scene.
• Foreshadow: The essay shows the following examples of foreshadowing , i. It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. ii. There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary abortions, and that horrid practice of women murdering their bastard children. These quotes from “ A Modest Proposal ” foreshadow the suggestions that Swift is going to throw before his readers.
• Hyperbole : Hyperbole or exaggeration occurs in the essay at various places, for example, i. I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricasie, or a ragoust. The above sentence is hyperbole , and also it shows how the suggestion is horrible and disgusting.
• Imagery : Imagery is used to make readers perceive things involving their five senses. For example, i. It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. ii. There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary abortions, and that horrid practice of women murdering their bastard children, alas! too frequent among us, sacrificing the poor innocent babes, I doubt, more to avoid the expense than the shame, which would move tears and pity in the most savage and inhuman breast. iii. Some persons of a desponding spirit are in great concern about that vast number of poor people, who are aged, diseased, or maimed; and I have been desired to employ my thoughts what course may be taken, to ease the nation of so grievous an incumbrance. These examples show different images such as the images of squalor and poverty in the first, of murdering in the second, and of disabilities in the third.
• Irony : The essay shows the use of irony in the below examples, i. There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary abortions, and that horrid practice of women murdering their bastard children, alas! too frequent among us, sacrificing the poor innocent babes, I doubt, more to avoid the expence than the shame, which would move tears and pity in the most savage and inhuman breast. ii. But I am not in the least pain upon that matter, because it is very well known, that they are every day dying, and rotting, by cold and famine, and filth, and vermin, as fast as can be reasonably expected. And as to the young labourers, they are now in almost as hopeful a condition. Both of these examples show the use of irony as the meanings are not what the author has written but quite opposite to what he says.
• Kairos : The essay shows the use of kairos as the credentials of the author, references to the domination of the Protestant, colonization of the different parts of the world by Britain, and other historical clues point to the context and temporality of the essay.
• Logos : The essay shows the use of logos in the following sentences, i. The number of souls in this kingdom being usually reckoned one million and a half, of these I calculate there may be about two hundred thousand couple whose wives are breeders; from which number I subtract thirty thousand couple, who are able to maintain their own children, (although I apprehend there cannot be so many, under the present distresses of the kingdom) but this being granted, there will remain an hundred and seventy thousand breeders. ii. I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl before twelve years old, is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three pounds, or three pounds and half a crown at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriments and rags having been at least four times that value. Both of these examples show the use of logos that is to use evidence to support one’s argument to make it convincing.
• Metaphor : “A Modest Proposal” shows good use of various metaphors in the below examples, i. I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children. ii. Whereas the maintainance of an hundred thousand children, from two years old, and upwards, cannot be computed at less than ten shillings a piece per annum. iii. The constant breeders, besides the gain of eight shillings sterling per annum by the sale of their children, will be rid of the charge of maintaining them after the first year. The first example compares landlords to crocodiles as they devour, the second children to things about their maintenance and third parents to animals who are breeders.
• Mood : The essay “A Modest Proposal” shows various moods but the prominent ones are formal, ironic and cynical.
• Narrator : The essay is narrated from a first person point of view , which is the writer, Jonathan Swift.
• Pathos : The essay shows the example of pathos as follows, i. It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. The example shows how Swift has used pathos to awaken pity and sympathy in his readers.
• Repetition : The essay shows the use of repetition at several places such “I assure you…”, “I am sure…” and “I have been assured…”. These phrases have made it a convincing piece of rhetoric .
• Rhetorical Questions : The essay shows good use of rhetorical questions at several places, for example, i. The question therefore is, How this number shall be reared, and provided for? which, as I have already said. This example shows the use of rhetorical questions posed by the narrator to stress upon the idea instead of asking the question.
• Satire : The essay shows the use of satire in the following examples, i. ..whoever could find out a fair, cheap, and easy method of making these children sound, useful members of the commonwealth would deserve so well of the public as to have his statue set up for a preserver of the nation. ii. I am assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London; that a young healthy child, well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious, nourishing, and wholesome food; whether stewed, roasted, baked or boiled, and I make no doubt, that it will equally serve in a fricassee, or ragout. Both of these examples show the use of satire in the essay.
• Simile : The essay shows good use of various similes in the following sentences, i. I cannot be altogether in his sentiments; for as to the males, my American acquaintance assured me from frequent experience, that their flesh was generally tough and lean, like that of our school-boys. ii. …and the inhabitants of TOPINAMBOO: Of quitting our animosities and factions, nor acting any longer like the Jews, who were murdering one another at the very moment their city was taken… These are similes as the use of the word “like” shows the comparison between different things.
• Tone : The tone of the essay “A Modest Proposal” is satiric, sarcastic, and, at times, ironic.

Related posts:

• Jonathan Swift
• Gulliver’s Travels

Post navigation

A Modest Proposal

For preventing the children of poor people in ireland, from being a burden on their parents or country, and for making them beneficial to the publick., by dr. jonathan swift.

It is a melancholy object to those, who walk through this great town, or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads, and cabbin-doors crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags, and importuning every passenger for an alms. These mothers, instead of being able to work for their honest livelihood, are forced to employ all their time in stroling to beg sustenance for their helpless infants who, as they grow up, either turn thieves for want of work, or leave their dear native country, to fight for the Pretender in Spain, or sell themselves to the Barbadoes.

I think it is agreed by all parties, that this prodigious number of children in the arms, or on the backs, or at the heels of their mothers, and frequently of their fathers, is in the present deplorable state of the kingdom, a very great additional grievance; and therefore whoever could find out a fair, cheap and easy method of making these children sound and useful members of the commonwealth, would deserve so well of the publick, as to have his statue set up for a preserver of the nation.

But my intention is very far from being confined to provide only for the children of professed beggars: it is of a much greater extent, and shall take in the whole number of infants at a certain age, who are born of parents in effect as little able to support them, as those who demand our charity in the streets.

As to my own part, having turned my thoughts for many years upon this important subject, and maturely weighed the several schemes of our projectors, I have always found them grossly mistaken in their computation. It is true, a child just dropt from its dam, may be supported by her milk, for a solar year, with little other nourishment: at most not above the value of two shillings, which the mother may certainly get, or the value in scraps, by her lawful occupation of begging; and it is exactly at one year old that I propose to provide for them in such a manner, as, instead of being a charge upon their parents, or the parish, or wanting food and raiment for the rest of their lives, they shall, on the contrary, contribute to the feeding, and partly to the clothing of many thousands.

There is likewise another great advantage in my scheme, that it will prevent those voluntary abortions, and that horrid practice of women murdering their bastard children, alas! too frequent among us, sacrificing the poor innocent babes, I doubt, more to avoid the expence than the shame, which would move tears and pity in the most savage and inhuman breast.

The number of souls in this kingdom being usually reckoned one million and a half, of these I calculate there may be about two hundred thousand couple, whose wives are breeders; from which number I subtract thirty thousand couple, who are able to maintain their own children, (although I apprehend there cannot be so many under the present distresses of the kingdom) but this being granted, there will remain a hundred and seventy thousand breeders. I again subtract fifty thousand, for those women who miscarry, or whose children die by accident or disease within the year. There only remain a hundred and twenty thousand children of poor parents annually born. The question therefore is, How this number shall be reared and provided for? which, as I have already said, under the present situation of affairs, is utterly impossible by all the methods hitherto proposed. For we can neither employ them in handicraft or agriculture; they neither build houses, (I mean in the country) nor cultivate land: they can very seldom pick up a livelihood by stealing till they arrive at six years old; except where they are of towardly parts, although I confess they learn the rudiments much earlier; during which time they can however be properly looked upon only as probationers; as I have been informed by a principal gentleman in the county of Cavan, who protested to me, that he never knew above one or two instances under the age of six, even in a part of the kingdom so renowned for the quickest proficiency in that art.

I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl, before twelve years old, is no saleable commodity, and even when they come to this age, they will not yield above three pounds, or three pounds and half a crown at most, on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriments and rags having been at least four times that value.

I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection.

I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed, is, at a year old, a most delicious nourishing and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or boiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricasee, or a ragoust.

I do therefore humbly offer it to publick consideration, that of the hundred and twenty thousand children, already computed, twenty thousand may be reserved for breed, whereof only one fourth part to be males; which is more than we allow to sheep, black cattle, or swine, and my reason is, that these children are seldom the fruits of marriage, a circumstance not much regarded by our savages, therefore, one male will be sufficient to serve four females. That the remaining hundred thousand may, at a year old, be offered in sale to the persons of quality and fortune, through the kingdom, always advising the mother to let them suck plentifully in the last month, so as to render them plump, and fat for a good table. A child will make two dishes at an entertainment for friends, and when the family dines alone, the fore or hind quarter will make a reasonable dish, and seasoned with a little pepper or salt, will be very good boiled on the fourth day, especially in winter.

I have reckoned upon a medium, that a child just born will weigh 12 pounds, and in a solar year, if tolerably nursed, encreaseth to 28 pounds.

I grant this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children.

Infant’s flesh will be in season throughout the year, but more plentiful in March, and a little before and after; for we are told by a grave author, an eminent French physician, that fish being a prolifick dyet, there are more children born in Roman Catholick countries about nine months after Lent, than at any other season; therefore, reckoning a year after Lent, the markets will be more glutted than usual, because the number of Popish infants, is at least three to one in this kingdom, and therefore it will have one other collateral advantage, by lessening the number of Papists among us.

I have already computed the charge of nursing a beggar’s child (in which list I reckon all cottagers, labourers, and four-fifths of the farmers) to be about two shillings per annum, rags included; and I believe no gentleman would repine to give ten shillings for the carcass of a good fat child, which, as I have said, will make four dishes of excellent nutritive meat, when he hath only some particular friend, or his own family to dine with him. Thus the squire will learn to be a good landlord, and grow popular among his tenants, the mother will have eight shillings neat profit, and be fit for work till she produces another child.

Those who are more thrifty (as I must confess the times require) may flay the carcass; the skin of which, artificially dressed, will make admirable gloves for ladies, and summer boots for fine gentlemen.

As to our City of Dublin, shambles may be appointed for this purpose, in the most convenient parts of it, and butchers we may be assured will not be wanting; although I rather recommend buying the children alive, and dressing them hot from the knife, as we do roasting pigs.

A very worthy person, a true lover of his country, and whose virtues I highly esteem, was lately pleased in discoursing on this matter, to offer a refinement upon my scheme. He said, that many gentlemen of this kingdom, having of late destroyed their deer, he conceived that the want of venison might be well supplied by the bodies of young lads and maidens, not exceeding fourteen years of age, nor under twelve; so great a number of both sexes in every county being now ready to starve for want of work and service: and these to be disposed of by their parents if alive, or otherwise by their nearest relations. But with due deference to so excellent a friend, and so deserving a patriot, I cannot be altogether in his sentiments; for as to the males, my American acquaintance assured me from frequent experience, that their flesh was generally tough and lean, like that of our schoolboys, by continual exercise, and their taste disagreeable, and to fatten them would not answer the charge. Then as to the females, it would, I think, with humble submission, be a loss to the publick, because they soon would become breeders themselves: and besides, it is not improbable that some scrupulous people might be apt to censure such a practice, (although indeed very unjustly) as a little bordering upon cruelty, which, I confess, hath always been with me the strongest objection against any project, how well soever intended.

But in order to justify my friend, he confessed, that this expedient was put into his head by the famous Psalmanaazor, a native of the island Formosa, who came from thence to London, above twenty years ago, and in conversation told my friend, that in his country, when any young person happened to be put to death, the executioner sold the carcass to persons of quality, as a prime dainty; and that, in his time, the body of a plump girl of fifteen, who was crucified for an attempt to poison the Emperor, was sold to his imperial majesty’s prime minister of state, and other great mandarins of the court in joints from the gibbet, at four hundred crowns. Neither indeed can I deny, that if the same use were made of several plump young girls in this town, who without one single groat to their fortunes, cannot stir abroad without a chair, and appear at a playhouse and assemblies in foreign fineries which they never will pay for, the kingdom would not be the worse.

Some persons of a desponding spirit are in great concern about that vast number of poor people, who are aged, diseased, or maimed; and I have been desired to employ my thoughts what course may be taken, to ease the nation of so grievous an incumbrance. But I am not in the least pain upon that matter, because it is very well known, that they are every day dying, and rotting, by cold and famine, and filth, and vermin, as fast as can be reasonably expected. And as to the young labourers, they are now in almost as hopeful a condition. They cannot get work, and consequently pine away from want of nourishment, to a degree, that if at any time they are accidentally hired to common labour, they have not strength to perform it, and thus the country and themselves are happily delivered from the evils to come.

I have too long digressed, and therefore shall return to my subject. I think the advantages by the proposal which I have made are obvious and many, as well as of the highest importance.

For first, as I have already observed, it would greatly lessen the number of Papists, with whom we are yearly overrun, being the principal breeders of the nation, as well as our most dangerous enemies, and who stay at home on purpose with a design to deliver the kingdom to the Pretender, hoping to take their advantage by the absence of so many good Protestants, who have chosen rather to leave their country, than stay at home and pay tithes against their conscience to an episcopal curate.

Secondly, The poorer tenants will have something valuable of their own, which by law may be made liable to a distress, and help to pay their landlord’s rent, their corn and cattle being already seized, and money a thing unknown.

Thirdly, Whereas the maintainance of a hundred thousand children, from two years old, and upwards, cannot be computed at less than ten shillings a piece per annum, the nation’s stock will be thereby encreased fifty thousand pounds per annum, besides the profit of a new dish, introduced to the tables of all gentlemen of fortune in the kingdom, who have any refinement in taste. And the money will circulate among our selves, the goods being entirely of our own growth and manufacture.

Fourthly, The constant breeders, besides the gain of eight shillings sterling per annum by the sale of their children, will be rid of the charge of maintaining them after the first year.

Fifthly, This food would likewise bring great custom to taverns, where the vintners will certainly be so prudent as to procure the best receipts for dressing it to perfection; and consequently have their houses frequented by all the fine gentlemen, who justly value themselves upon their knowledge in good eating; and a skilful cook, who understands how to oblige his guests, will contrive to make it as expensive as they please.

Sixthly, This would be a great inducement to marriage, which all wise nations have either encouraged by rewards, or enforced by laws and penalties. It would encrease the care and tenderness of mothers towards their children, when they were sure of a settlement for life to the poor babes, provided in some sort by the publick, to their annual profit instead of expence. We should soon see an honest emulation among the married women, which of them could bring the fattest child to the market. Men would become as fond of their wives, during the time of their pregnancy, as they are now of their mares in foal, their cows in calf, or sows when they are ready to farrow; nor offer to beat or kick them (as is too frequent a practice) for fear of a miscarriage.

Many other advantages might be enumerated. For instance, the addition of some thousand carcasses in our exportation of barrel’d beef: the propagation of swine’s flesh, and improvement in the art of making good bacon, so much wanted among us by the great destruction of pigs, too frequent at our tables; which are no way comparable in taste or magnificence to a well grown, fat yearling child, which roasted whole will make a considerable figure at a Lord Mayor’s feast, or any other publick entertainment. But this, and many others, I omit, being studious of brevity.

Supposing that one thousand families in this city, would be constant customers for infants flesh, besides others who might have it at merry meetings, particularly at weddings and christenings, I compute that Dublin would take off annually about twenty thousand carcasses; and the rest of the kingdom (where probably they will be sold somewhat cheaper) the remaining eighty thousand.

I can think of no one objection, that will possibly be raised against this proposal, unless it should be urged, that the number of people will be thereby much lessened in the kingdom. This I freely own, and was indeed one principal design in offering it to the world. I desire the reader will observe, that I calculate my remedy for this one individual Kingdom of Ireland, and for no other that ever was, is, or, I think, ever can be upon Earth. Therefore let no man talk to me of other expedients: Of taxing our absentees at five shillings a pound: Of using neither clothes, nor houshold furniture, except what is of our own growth and manufacture: Of utterly rejecting the materials and instruments that promote foreign luxury: Of curing the expensiveness of pride, vanity, idleness, and gaming in our women: Of introducing a vein of parsimony, prudence and temperance: Of learning to love our country, wherein we differ even from Laplanders, and the inhabitants of Topinamboo: Of quitting our animosities and factions, nor acting any longer like the Jews, who were murdering one another at the very moment their city was taken: Of being a little cautious not to sell our country and consciences for nothing: Of teaching landlords to have at least one degree of mercy towards their tenants. Lastly, of putting a spirit of honesty, industry, and skill into our shopkeepers, who, if a resolution could now be taken to buy only our native goods, would immediately unite to cheat and exact upon us in the price, the measure, and the goodness, nor could ever yet be brought to make one fair proposal of just dealing, though often and earnestly invited to it.

Therefore I repeat, let no man talk to me of these and the like expedients, till he hath at least some glympse of hope, that there will ever be some hearty and sincere attempt to put them into practice.

But, as to myself, having been wearied out for many years with offering vain, idle, visionary thoughts, and at length utterly despairing of success, I fortunately fell upon this proposal, which, as it is wholly new, so it hath something solid and real, of no expence and little trouble, full in our own power, and whereby we can incur no danger in disobliging England. For this kind of commodity will not bear exportation, and flesh being of too tender a consistence, to admit a long continuance in salt, although perhaps I could name a country, which would be glad to eat up our whole nation without it.

After all, I am not so violently bent upon my own opinion, as to reject any offer, proposed by wise men, which shall be found equally innocent, cheap, easy, and effectual. But before something of that kind shall be advanced in contradiction to my scheme, and offering a better, I desire the author or authors will be pleased maturely to consider two points. First, As things now stand, how they will be able to find food and raiment for a hundred thousand useless mouths and backs. And secondly, There being a round million of creatures in humane figure throughout this kingdom, whose whole subsistence put into a common stock, would leave them in debt two million of pounds sterling, adding those who are beggars by profession, to the bulk of farmers, cottagers and labourers, with their wives and children, who are beggars in effect; I desire those politicians who dislike my overture, and may perhaps be so bold to attempt an answer, that they will first ask the parents of these mortals, whether they would not at this day think it a great happiness to have been sold for food at a year old, in the manner I prescribe, and thereby have avoided such a perpetual scene of misfortunes, as they have since gone through, by the oppression of landlords, the impossibility of paying rent without money or trade, the want of common sustenance, with neither house nor clothes to cover them from the inclemencies of the weather, and the most inevitable prospect of intailing the like, or greater miseries, upon their breed for ever.

I profess in the sincerity of my heart, that I have not the least personal interest in endeavouring to promote this necessary work, having no other motive than the publick good of my country, by advancing our trade, providing for infants, relieving the poor, and giving some pleasure to the rich. I have no children, by which I can propose to get a single penny; the youngest being nine years old, and my wife past child-bearing.

This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org . If you are not located in the United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this eBook.

AP English Language and Composition Practice Question 1

Test information.

• » Do AP English Language and Composition Practice Tests
• » Download AP English Language and Composition Practice Tests
• » Best AP English Language and Composition Books

More AP Tests

• AP English Language and Composition Test 1
• AP English Language and Composition Test 2
• AP English Language and Composition Test 3
• AP English Language and Composition Test 4
• AP English Language and Composition Test 5
• AP English Language and Composition Test 6
• AP English Language and Composition Test 7
• AP English Language and Composition Test 8
• AP English Language and Composition Test 9
• AP English Language and Composition Test 10
• AP English Language and Composition Test 11
• AP English Language and Composition Test 12
• AP English Language and Composition Test 13
• AP English Language and Composition Test 14
• AP English Language and Composition Test 15
• AP English Language and Composition Test 16
• AP English Language and Composition Test 17
• AP English Language and Composition Test 18
• AP English Language and Composition Test 19
• AP English Language and Composition Test 20
• AP English Language and Composition Test 21
• AP English Language and Composition Test 22
• AP English Language and Composition Test 23
• AP English Language and Composition Test 24
• AP English Language and Composition Test 25
• AP English Language and Composition Test 26
• AP English Language and Composition Test 27
• AP English Language and Composition Test 28
• AP English Language and Composition Test 29
• AP English Language and Composition Test 30
• AP English Language and Composition Test 31
• AP English Language and Composition Test 32
• AP English Language and Composition Test 33
• AP English Language and Composition Test 34
• AP English Language and Composition Test 35
• AP English Language and Composition Test 36
• AP English Language and Composition Test 37
• AP English Language and Composition Test 38
• AP English Language and Composition Test 39
• AP English Language and Composition Test 40
• AP English Language and Composition Test 41
• AP English Language and Composition Test 42
• AP English Language and Composition Test 43
• AP English Language and Composition Test 44
• AP English Language and Composition Test 45
• AP English Language and Composition Test 46
• AP English Language and Composition Test 47
• AP English Language and Composition Test 48
• AP English Language and Composition Test 49
• AP English Language and Composition Test 50
• AP English Language and Composition Test 51
• AP English Language and Composition Test 52
• AP English Language and Composition Test 53

Question: 1

In his 1729 essay "A Modest Proposal," Jonathan Swift wrote the following:

This text can best be described as

Correct Answer: B

Explanation:

B As is often the case on the real exam, this first passage, taken from Jonathan Swift’s "A Modest Proposal" is a relatively easy one. This question sets up many of the others that follow it so make sure you get this one correct. If you take the author’s proposal seriously, then four of the answers [(A), (C), (D), and (E)] are plausible; of course, the key is to understand that the author is not making a serious proposal, but, rather, he is satirizing other so-called scientific studies that, under the guise of humanitarianism, tend to offer cruel (if not sadistic) "solutions" to poverty. Therefore, (B) is the only acceptable answer.

A Modest Proposal

Jonathan swift, ask litcharts ai: the answer to your questions, the proposer quotes in a modest proposal.

It is a melancholy object to those who walk through this great town or travel in the country, when they see the streets, the roads, and cabin doors, crowded with beggars of the female sex, followed by three, four, or six children, all in rags and importuning every passenger for an alms.

As to my own part, having turned my thoughts for many years upon this important subject, and maturely weighed the several schemes of our projectors, I have always found them grossly mistaken in their computation.

The number of souls in this kingdom being usually reckoned one million and a half, of these I calculate there may be about 200,000 couple whose wives are breeders; from which number I subtract 30,000 couple who are able to maintain their own children, (although I apprehend there cannot be so many, under the present distresses of the kingdom;) but this being granted, there will remain 170,000 breeders. I again subtract 50,000 for those women who miscarry or whose children die by accident or disease within the year. There only remain 120,000 children of poor parents annually born.

I am assured by our merchants, that a boy or a girl before twelve years old is no saleable commodity; and even when they come to this age they will not yield above 3l. or 3l. 2s. 6d. at most on the exchange; which cannot turn to account either to the parents or kingdom, the charge of nutriment and rags having been at least four times that value.

I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. I have been assured by a very knowing American of my acquaintance in London, that a young healthy child well nursed is at a year old a most delicious, nourishing, and wholesome food, whether stewed, roasted, baked, or broiled; and I make no doubt that it will equally serve in a fricassee or ragout.

I grant that this food will be somewhat dear, and therefore very proper for landlords, who, as they have already devoured most of the parents, seem to have the best title to the children.

For first, as I have already observed, it would greatly lessen the number of papists, with whom we are yearly over-run, being the principal breeders of the nation as well as our most dangerous enemies; and who stay at home on purpose to deliver the kingdom to the pretender, hoping to take their advantage by the absence of so many good protestants, who have chosen rather to leave their country than stay at home and pay tithes against their conscience to an episcopal curate.

Therefore let no man talk to me of other expedients: of taxing our absentees at 5s. a pound: of using neither clothes nor household furniture except what is of our own growth and manufacture: of utterly rejecting the materials and instruments that promote foreign luxury: of curing the expensiveness of pride, vanity, idleness, and gaming in our women: of introducing a vein of parsimony, prudence, and temperance: of learning to love our country, in the want of which we differ even from Laplanders and the inhabitants of Topinamboo: of quitting our animosities and factions, nor acting any longer like the Jews, who were murdering one another at the very moment their city was taken: of being a little cautious not to sell our country and conscience for nothing: of teaching landlords to have at least one degree of mercy toward their tenants: lastly, of putting a spirit of honesty, industry, and skill into our shopkeepers…

The Point Conversations and insights about the moment.

• Share full article

Nicholas Kristof

Opinion Columnist

Israel’s Denial of Gaza Aid May Lead to an Arrest Warrant

The decision on Monday by the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court to seek arrest warrants for leaders of Hamas and Israel probably will not result in anyone being put on trial immediately for crimes against humanity. But it does further tarnish Israel’s invasion of Gaza, add to the isolation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and raise questions about President Biden’s steadfast support for Israel’s war in Gaza.

It’s no surprise that the prosecutor, Karim Khan, is seeking to arrest Hamas leaders for their rampage of murder, rape, torture and kidnapping on Oct. 7, which clearly constituted war crimes. Those protesters making excuses for Hamas should read Khan’s statement and understand Hamas’s brutality.

The allegations against Netanyahu seem to focus on the Israeli government’s decision to throttle aid, including food assistance, to civilians in Gaza and thus cause starvation. The very first allegation listed by the prosecutor against Netanyahu is “Starvation of civilians as a method of warfare.”

That has always seemed to me a part of the Israeli operation in Gaza that is particularly difficult to justify. My view is that Israel absolutely had a right to strike Gaza militarily after the Oct. 7 terrorist attacks, to destroy Hamas leadership and to try to recover hostages. I have argued that the military operation should have been far more restrained, calibrated to target Hamas officials rather than to level entire neighborhoods, but bombing targets in Gaza was not inherently wrong or unlawful.

What has seemed utterly indefensible has been the constraints placed on aid entering the territory, so that Gaza is teetering on the edge of famine — even as trucks filled with food are lined up at Gaza’s border, waiting to enter. That is what seemed to galvanize the International Criminal Court.

A panel of international experts convened by the International Criminal Court unanimously backed the prosecutor. “Parties to an armed conflict must not deliberately impede the delivery of humanitarian relief for civilians, including humanitarian relief provided by third parties,” the experts said.

I’m not an expert in international humanitarian law, so I’ll leave it to others to argue about whether a prosecution of Netanyahu is justified. But the court’s efforts underscore the moral stain of the starvation in Gaza, in which the United States is complicit.

America’s highest-priority response needn’t be a flurry of legal arguments, but instead could involve a far greater effort — using all the leverage we have — to persuade Israel to allow more aid into Gaza and to ensure that the aid is actually delivered to starving children. Whether or not one agrees that starving children is criminal, it is unconscionable. And preventable.

Patrick Healy

Deputy Opinion Editor

The Dangerous Political Headwind Facing Biden

Every Monday morning on The Point, we kick off the week with a tipsheet on the latest in the presidential campaign. Here’s what we’re looking at this week:

All eyes will be on Donald Trump’s criminal trial in Manhattan this week. His lawyers are expected to wrap up their cross-examination of Michael Cohen on Monday, and then will reveal if Trump is going to testify in his own defense before heading to closing arguments, probably on Tuesday. As much as Trump might be tempted to take the stand, he knows very well the lies he has told about Cohen, Stormy Daniels and his business records over the years — lies he could get caught telling under oath. The risk of testifying is enormous for a born liar, and Trump wasn’t born any other way. I don’t see him taking that chance.

For me, this trial has underscored two things: The enthusiasm and loyalty that the Trump base feels for their man, and the dangerous political dynamic that President Biden faces this year. That dynamic, as I see it, is this: Many Americans want change, and while they may respect Joe Biden, they don’t want Joe Biden anymore. Even the Trump criminal trial hasn’t been enough to make Biden look good by comparison, if the latest polls are any measure. My colleague Ezra Klein has a great new column about why this may be , but whatever the reason, the Biden campaign has big choices to make.

The biggest choice to me: His campaign has been focused on getting people to respect Biden — by portraying him as a defender of democracy, a champion of a normal America, a trusted ally to the less fortunate, a more decent man than Trump — rather than on making people want the Biden presidency to continue. He gave a good speech Sunday at Morehouse College in Atlanta about manhood and faith, but given his weak polling in that battleground state, I was surprised he didn’t make a stronger case for why people should want him in office for another four years.

He then headed to another battleground, Michigan, where he is also struggling in the polls. Based on his speech at an N.A.A.C.P. dinner there, I’m sure there was a lot of respect for him in the room, but what’s he doing that’s new or especially persuasive to make more Black voters and others want him for another four years?

On Tuesday, Biden heads to New Hampshire, another traditional battleground where he is polling strongly. As Trump gets closer to a verdict on that day, I’ll be watching New Hampshire to see if Biden and his team demonstrate any new thinking to make the case for why Americans should want another four years of his presidency.

Advertisement

Farah Stockman

Editorial Board Member

A Close Setback for Labor in the South

The United Automobile Workers union fell short in its bid to unionize two Mercedes plants in Alabama on Friday but accomplished something historic nonetheless. Simply having the election — and getting close to passing — was a victory in itself, given what union organizers were up against. (The vote was 2,045 to 2,642.)

People in power — from the governor of Alabama to a Tuscaloosa city councilor — spoke out against organized labor as antithetical to the state’s best interests. Mercedes has been blasting anti-union emails and videos to workers for weeks and requiring workers to attend information sessions about the bad stuff that can happen when a plant unionizes. (The U.A.W. has accused the company of unfair labor practices.)

My cousin works in the Mercedes plant and has been forwarding the videos that the company has been sending around. It’s clear that Mercedes pulled out all the stops to get workers to reject the union. But it is also clear that workers saw firsthand what labor solidarity can do. Just the threat of the union coming into the plant prompted the company to give him a $2 raise to $34 an hour.

“All the stuff started blowing about the union, and Mercedes done gave us a raise,” he told me. (I’m withholding his name to avoid any trouble for him.) He also got a new quarterly bonus, based on sales. “Like they are trying to correct what they should have done a long time ago.”

He said that union organizers have popped up at the plant every few years since the 1990s and that he attended a meeting once. But it never came to a vote. This time, a recent ruling by the Biden administration’s labor-friendly National Labor Relations Board made it far easier for the U.A.W. to bring an election to the factory floor.

That ruling helped Volkswagen workers in Chattanooga, Tenn., join the U.A.W. That plant was the first nonunion auto plant in a Southern state to vote to join a union, after the U.A.W.’s president, Shawn Fain, announced an audacious campaign to unionize auto plants in the South.

My cousin said he initially wasn’t sure which way he’d vote, but he cast a ballot for unionization. He liked working for Mercedes but recalled times he wasn’t treated with respect, such as how he was treated after a white woman he worked next to falsely accused him of brushing up against her on the assembly line.

After the vote, he expressed disappointment but said he hoped the union would try again.

“This is the first time it ever got this far,” he said. “We made history.”

Zeynep Tufekci

North Carolina Says Yes to Clowns and No to Cancer Patients

It seems that police officers in North Carolina will soon be allowed to penalize cancer patients for wearing a medical mask in a grocery store.

Since 1953, North Carolina has had a law on the books banning masks in public in order to hamper secret societies like the Ku Klux Klan, and ever since the Covid-19 pandemic, that law has had an exemption for people wearing masks for health and safety reasons.

But the way things are going, that exemption may not exist for much longer.

“Individuals would no longer be able to wear masks in public for health or safety reasons,” reads North Carolina’s House Bill 237, which was passed by the Republican-controlled State Senate in a vote along party lines on Wednesday . (Republicans have said the bill is designed to target masked protesters.) Because the bill was amended by the Senate, it has since been sent back to the Republican-controlled State House of Representatives for reapproval, where it will probably pass.

It is unlikely that even a veto by the state’s Democratic governor, Roy Cooper, would stop this bill from becoming law. After the 2022 elections, Republicans were a single seat short of a supermajority in the General Assembly. When State Representative Tricia Cotham became a Republican, she handed the party enough votes to override the governor’s vetoes.

The bill is titled Unmasking Mobs and Criminals, and it still allows some exceptions to the mask ban: for a “secret society or organization to wear masks or hoods in a parade or demonstration if they obtain permission” or “by a person wearing a traditional holiday costume in season.” The bill would allow clowns to keep wearing masks, too, as part of an exception for professional activities.

So secret societies are fine, Halloween is fine, and clowns are fine — just not cancer patients, other immunocompromised individuals or any other people concerned with protecting their health.

Jesse Wegman

Alito’s Inverted Flag Epitomizes the Ethics Crisis at the Court

Thanks to Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s neighbors, Jodi Kantor of The Times was able to report a shocking bit of news on Thursday: In January 2021, shortly after the deadly Capitol assault incited by Donald Trump, Alito’s front yard openly displayed an upside-down American flag — an unmistakable pro-Trump symbol used by those who believed the 2020 election was stolen.

But wait: It turns out this wasn’t Alito’s fault. “I had no involvement whatsoever in the flying of the flag,” he told The Times, explaining that the flag was “briefly placed” there by his wife, Martha-Ann, in an escalation of a neighborhood spat that included “objectionable and personally insulting language” on yard signs.

For a guy who earns his paycheck evaluating the quality of arguments, Justice Alito is remarkably bad at coming up with ones in his own defense. Even if he had no role in raising the flag, what stopped him from taking it down immediately and apologizing profusely for his wife’s intemperance? Doesn’t his failure to do so suggest tacit agreement if not outright support — not only for a violent insurrection based on a demonstrable lie but also for one of the litigants who was at that time before his court arguing over the election?

This disregard for the appearance of bias is in line with how Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas, in particular, have long approached their job and the enormous power they wield. (You may recall that Thomas’s wife, Ginni, cosplayed as a legal insurrectionist who tried to overturn the 2020 election.) That disregard extends to the institution of the Supreme Court and to the American people forced to live under its edicts. How are we expected to respect a court that has so little respect for us?

Yes, other justices have revealed their political biases over the years. In 2016 the Times editorial board called out Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg for referring to Trump as a “faker,” comments for which she quickly expressed regret . I’m not holding my breath for any comparable avowal of humility from Alito, who is well known for his self-righteousness.

Nor do I expect him or Justice Thomas to recuse themselves from the continuing cases related to Jan. 6, including the one about Trump’s immunity from prosecution for that day, which the court has prevented from moving forward for months. By any reasonable ethical standard, they should recuse themselves, and they would be required to do so if the Supreme Court were bound by any meaningful ethical standards . Any lower-level federal employee would probably fail a security screening for being connected to a flag-flying stunt like this.

The integrity of the court may be beyond repair, but you still have to wonder, are Thomas and Alito trying to get themselves impeached?

Spencer Cohen

Opinion Editorial Assistant

Iran’s Nuclear Expansion Remains a Threat to the Middle East

Will Iran go for the Bomb?

That question looms over the volatility in the Middle East, particularly after the tit-for-tat attacks last month by Israel and Iran , which ended after an Israeli airstrike damaged an S-300 system, used by Iran to protect its nuclear sites.

Last week, Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, traveled to Iran to meet with senior officials. Iran has enriched uranium to near weapons grade and barred Grossi from its centrifuge plant under construction deep underground in Natanz . After the trip, he told reporters that Iranian officials are ready to engage in “concrete measures” that appear to be based on a deal hashed out last year that expanded cooperation and monitoring. But he gave few specifics.

Behind the opaque diplomacy, there are worrying signs.

Iran is rapidly advancing its nuclear program, seemingly teetering on the edge of weaponization, as oversight by the international community is falling away. “We are moving closer to a situation where there is a big, huge question mark about what they are doing and why they are doing it,” Grossi told The Guardian this week.

Iran is not currently working toward building a nuclear weapon, according to a recent U.S. intelligence assessment . But this month a senior Iranian official declared that the country could change its nuclear doctrine, moving the program away from solely peaceful purposes, if seriously threatened (the Iranian Foreign Ministry has walked back similar statements). Safeguards put in place after the 2015 deal to limit Iran’s nuclear program are now all but gone following the U.S. withdrawal from the agreement in 2018, and the I.A.E.A. is increasingly flying blind.

In February, an I.A.E.A. report said the agency has lost what it calls “continuity of knowledge” in key areas of the program, all while Iran has expanded its overall stockpile of enriched uranium and effectively blocked several of the agency’s inspectors. It has also removed monitoring equipment, which the report said “had detrimental implications for the agency’s ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran’s nuclear program.”

If Iran does make the leap, it will probably need a week or two to enrich enough weapons-grade uranium for at least one weapon. It may be a bit longer, only six months by one estimate , for Iran to have a crude nuclear device.

A nuclear-armed Iran would be a mortal threat to Israel and would probably further destabilize the Middle East. It could also set off a chain reaction: Saudi Arabia has threatened to go nuclear if Iran does, which could push the region further into an arms race.

Jonathan Alter

Contributing Opinion Writer

Finding an Opening, Trump’s Team Catches Michael Cohen Unawares

If Donald Trump beats the rap in his felony trial, he might be able to thank a 14-year-old prank caller, backed by some bad staff work at the Manhattan district attorney’s office.

This was one of those peculiar tales that can sink cases, because if it undermines the credibility of the prosecution’s key witness with just a single juror, we could see a hung jury.

All morning, Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead defense attorney, was barking up mostly fruitless trees. When cross-examining the key witness, Michael Cohen, he scored a few points by making Cohen seem as if he had a personal vendetta against Trump, and he dinged him for stupidly claiming that Judge William Pauley — who earlier sentenced him to prison — was in some kind of conspiracy against him. But Blanche’s inexperience kept him from gaining the rhythm to truly nail Cohen.

Then, about 20 minutes before lunch, Blanche hit pay dirt.

On Tuesday, Cohen had testified that on Oct. 24, 2016 — just a couple of weeks before the election — he called Trump to discuss the Stormy Daniels matter and to tell him that he would move forward to pay the hush money. The call lasted for a minute and 36 seconds.

Unfortunately for the prosecution, the update on Daniels was not the only purpose of the call.

That week, Cohen felt victimized by harassing calls from a phone number that hadn’t blocked him. He called the number and found that the prank caller was only 14 years old. Cohen told the boy’s parents what their son had done. But he didn’t stop there. He wanted to connect to the Secret Service, which was traveling with Trump on the campaign trail. Cohen texted Keith Schiller, Trump’s bodyguard, who texted him to call and discuss the harassment.

The D.A.’s office didn’t review those texts with Cohen before he testified. This gave Blanche a chance to blindside him, which is never good for a witness.

“You talked to Keith Schiller about what you just went through” with the harassing calls, Blanche charged, his voice rising. “You can admit it!”

Cohen said he believed the call was about the hush money.

“We’re not asking what you believed!” Blanche shouted. “This jury doesn’t want to hear what you think happened.” The prosecution’s objection was sustained but the damage had been done.

Cohen then said he talked to Schiller and Trump about both the harassment and the hush money deal, and he can emphasize the point when prosecutors get a chance to question him again.

Fortunately for the prosecution, we’ve heard about several calls where Cohen discussed hush money with Trump. The most critical one — which Cohen taped — has Trump mentioning the $150,000 promised to a former Playboy model, Karen McDougal. After lunch, Blanche tried and failed to crack Cohen on that critical call.

Even so, I saw Trump smiling as he whispered to one of his lawyers. It was a good day for him.

Trump Is the Nostalgia-Protest-Change Candidate. Can Biden Beat That?

After 90 minutes of talking to a dozen women who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, as part of our latest Times Opinion focus group , I was reminded of something my colleague Michelle Cottle wrote in November : Trump is tapping into the desire of many voters for nostalgia (e.g., the Trump-era economy), protest (President Biden is doing things wrong) and change (new policies on the economy and the border).

Our 12 focus group members didn’t think Trump was perfect — and in that respect they echoed the latest New York Times/Siena poll , where voters also were critical of Trump, yet gave him a lead over Biden in five swing states. But it’s crystal clear at this point that a lot of Americans credit Trump as a better steward of the economy, and they just don’t see evidence that Biden will change things up enough to attack inflation and interest rates.

The nostalgia for the Trump economy, the protest against Biden’s belief that he has earned a second term, and the desire to change the picture on inflation and the border are adding up to a powerful combination. Think what you will of Trump, but a lot of voters agree with something my colleague Kristen Soltis Anderson wrote in December about the former president:

Much of his candidacy and message so far is aimed at arguing that he can restore a prepandemic order and a sense of security in an unstable world. And unlike 2020, there’s no guarantee most voters will see President Biden as the safer bet between the two men to bring order back to America — in no small part because Mr. Biden was elected to do so and hasn’t delivered.

What Biden needs now more than anything is to pierce that nostalgia bubble that’s enveloping and protecting Trump while making the case to voters that he has delivered, and will continue to do so. That’s why I think Biden on Wednesday made the most radical of moves for an institutionalist like himself and proposed a June debate with Trump, far earlier than normal, which seems like it will happen for now. There’s only one reason any candidate would do such a thing: Because he thought he needed it.

Trump needs it, too. It’s historically very hard to knock off an incumbent president, and he knows he has to do more to make it happen. Being the nostalgia-protest-change candidate may be enough for Trump to win in the end, but in America, re-election is still the incumbent president’s to lose. Biden told the political world on Wednesday that he’s willing to take a big risk, even a bad or embarrassing debate, to save his job.

Serge Schmemann

Silencing Independent Voices Is Not the Way to Join the West

In Tbilisi, Georgia, the country’s parliament passed a “foreign agent” bill on Tuesday that, according to the ruling Georgian Dream party, will increase transparency on foreign funding of nongovernmental groups and media outlets.

But the thousands of Georgians who have been demonstrating in the streets since the measure was first introduced don’t agree with that description. Nor does the Biden administration, nor the European Union. They see the bill for what it is: a repressive measure intended to silence independent NGOs and media and move Georgia closer to the Kremlin’s orbit.

The law is modeled on one Russia enacted in 2012, which the Kremlin has used to smear or silence anyone challenging the government. The Georgian variant — widely known as the “Russian law” — would require organizations getting more than a fifth of their funding from abroad to register as “bearing the interests of a foreign power” or face stiff fines. The law was first introduced last year and withdrawn under heavy protest; this year the protests failed to dissuade the ruling party. Georgia’s largely ceremonial president, Salome Zourabichvili, says she will veto it, but Georgian Dream has enough votes to override her.

Why is the ruling party doing this?

One reason is the national elections set for October: Tamping down the opposition and the independent press will help Georgian Dream stay in power, which it’s held since 2012. The party has demonstrated distinctly authoritarian ambitions.

The more worrisome possibility is that Georgian Dream, the creation of the richest man in Georgia, Bidzina Ivanishvili, wants to get on the right side of Russia. Ivanishvili, who was prime minister from 2012 to 2013 and still wields considerable power behind the scenes, initially took a robust anti-Moscow stance, but that has been changing, especially since Russia invaded Ukraine.

The ruling party maintains that it is still keen on joining the European Union, which formally granted Georgia candidate status in December. The party has little choice, given that the overwhelming majority of Georgians are in favor of moving westward. But the party’s actions and words have pointed the other way, either out of fear of Russia — not irrational, given that Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 — or for gain, or to keep the party in power.

The United States and the European Union have made no secret of their alarm and annoyance. A State Department statement condemned the “foreign influence” legislation, warning that the law and Georgian Dream’s anti-Western rhetoric “put Georgia on a precarious trajectory.” A U.S. official warned that Washington may slap some financial and travel restrictions on some Georgian officials. It may not be too late.

Paul Krugman

Is Disinflation Back on Track?

The latest news on inflation has been pretty good. It has also been extremely weird. And that weirdness is, in a way, the message.

With underlying inflation fairly low but probably still above the Fed’s 2 percent target and people still worried that it might go back up, quirky measurement issues can lead to big mood swings that are quickly reversed when the next numbers come in — or sometimes even a few hours after the initial announcement, once knowledgeable people have had some time to dig into the details.

There were two big official inflation reports in the past couple of days: the Producer Price Index (what we used to call wholesale prices) on Tuesday and the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday morning . There was also a private survey from the National Federation of Independent Business that may add some clarity.

So what do I mean by “weirdness”? On Tuesday I was busy most of the day with plumbers and dentists, so I was able to check in on events and commentary only once in a while. But this enforced limitation on the information flow might actually have given me more perspective. The first thing I saw was a hot P.P.I., with inflation coming in well above expectations. There was much wailing and rending of garments. Then, as the analysts I follow had time to parse the details, they started to declare that this was actually a good report.

Financial markets seemed to agree. One quick and dirty way to judge how markets view inflation data is to look at the yield on two-year U.S. Treasuries, which largely reflects what people think the Fed is going to do. If inflation looks hot, they expect the Fed to keep rates high and maybe even increase them; if it looks cool, they expect the opposite.

And if you look at two-year yields over the past few days, you see the market reaction matching my sense of the commentary:

Yields spiked when the P.P.I. report was released, then fell back once there was time to dig into the numbers, ending the day lower than they started.

On the other hand, markets from the get-go liked the C.P.I., which seemed to show inflation resuming its downward trend, with yields falling sharply. But as I write, analysts are still digging into the details. Will they be less optimistic by evening? Probably not: Early commentary seems, if anything, to be saying that the numbers were even better than they first appeared. But after yesterday, I’m going to wait and see.

I also mentioned the survey from the N.F.I.B., which represents small and medium businesses. One question it asks is whether businesses are planning to raise or lower prices over the next three months; the percentage difference from current numbers is often a useful indicator of inflation trends. And that spread is currently close to what it was before the pandemic, although slightly higher:

So my best guess? The acceleration in measured inflation over the past few months was probably a statistical illusion; inflation wasn’t as low as it seemed in late 2023 but probably hasn’t risen much, if at all. Underlying annual inflation is probably around 2.5 percent, maybe even less. So my guess is that we’ve already won this war — that we have basically achieved a soft landing, with low unemployment and acceptably low inflation.

But I could be wrong, and even if I’m right, it’s going to take at least a few more months of good inflation news before this happy reality sinks in.

Frank Bruni

Biden’s Daring Debate Proposal Could Recharge His Campaign

I’ve been waiting and hoping — no, I’ve been desperate — for President Biden to do two things. One, boldly project strength. Two, recognize that he cannot coast to re-election and that he needs to shake up the state of the presidential race.

With his offer on Wednesday to debate Donald Trump at least twice before the election and as early as next month, he has done just that.

The Biden campaign’s proposal came with the condition that the debates be in a television studio and there be no audience present to hoot, holler and otherwise interrupt. Trump subsequently indicated that he was onboard, though it wasn’t clear if he would agree to Biden’s terms.

By emphasizing debates and suggesting that they start soon, Biden is taking a risk. But it’s a necessary one. Trump and his supporters lean hard on the charge that Biden is too rickety — in terms of both energy and intellect — to face off against Trump, and they have sold that idea skillfully and mercilessly, with the help of right-wing news organizations that portray Biden as a doddering wreck. It’s selective and often malicious stuff, but that doesn’t mean that Biden can ignore it. He must refute it. Signaling an eagerness to debate is the crucial first step.

The next one is performing well in those debates, should they happen, and that’s where the risk comes in. Some Democrats who’ve spent time with Biden over the past year privately express concerns about his sharpness and stamina, and a debate is less scripted — and arguably more draining — than a State of the Union speech read from a teleprompter. But a reluctance or refusal to debate could be as damaging to Biden as half a dozen terrible moments at the lectern.

Besides which, Trump could have scores of such moments, to go by his bizarro stump speeches of late. That’s where the rewards that Biden could reap come in. Do I think that he will turn in debate performances for the ages? No. Do I think that Trump will have a harder time insisting on Biden’s wobbliness if he has demonstrated his own profound unsteadiness on the same stage where Biden is standing, with plenty of swing voters watching? Yes.

I also think that it’s past time for Biden to pivot from caution to daring. Maybe that pivot is finally here.

Putin’s Defense Shake-Up Is a Danger for Ukraine

With Vladimir Putin’s revival of Soviet-style centralized and secretive rule, the old art of Kremlinology is making a comeback. It’s not quite the same as when the lineup atop Lenin’s mausoleum on May Day was scrutinized for signs of who was on the way up or down, but Putin’s abrupt replacement of the long-serving Sergei Shoigu as defense minister last Sunday was still a distinct blast from that dismal past.

Technically, Shoigu was kicked upstairs, to head up the national security council. Putin is not given to publicly punishing loyal courtiers, and Shoigu was about as loyal as they come, even going fishing and hunting with the boss. Still, Kremlin-watchers have long expected his ouster, given the sloppiness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the widespread corruption in the military-industrial complex, and Shoigu’s reported unpopularity with the generals. There was also the dramatic rebellion of the mercenary commander Yevgeny Prigozhin, who marched on Moscow last June demanding Shoigu’s head (only to lose his own in a plane crash broadly presumed to have been an assassination).

So, very briefly, here are the questions and speculation now keeping Kremlinologists busy:

Shoigu’s replacement at the Defense Ministry is Andrei Belousov, a senior Kremlin economist. That he is not a military man is not surprising; neither was Shoigu, a former construction foreman, nor his two predecessors. Military matters are handled by the generals of the General Staff; the defense minister looks after the military-industrial base. The thinking is that Belousov’s task will be to manage the rapid growth in Russia’s military spending and to clean up the corruption that is siphoning off huge amounts of the money earmarked for the Ukraine war.

How long Shoigu will be allowed to survive remains an open question. One of his top deputies, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on bribery charges in April. One of Ivanov’s nicknames was “Shoigu’s wallet.” And on Tuesday morning, government investigators announced that a senior general on the General Staff, Lt. Gen. Yuri Kuznetsov, had been detained on suspicion of “large-scale” bribe-taking.

A big question is what happens to Nikolai Patrushev, who is being displaced by Shoigu at the helm of the Russian security council. Patrushev, like Putin a former K.G.B. official, is among the oldest and closest members of Putin’s ruling clique, and among the most hawkish. Where he lands — or fails to land — will say a lot about where Putin is headed.

On balance, the musical chairs point to a major overhaul of the military as Russia moves toward what is basically a war economy. Russia is making incremental but steady advances in Ukraine, albeit at an astounding cost in casualties and armaments. Putin’s plan is to press on at any cost, squeezing Ukraine and its ever more reluctant Western backers, and keeping China on board as a major supplier. None of that bodes well for Ukraine.

Where’s the Devastating Takedown of Michael Cohen That Trump Needs?

For months, we’ve known that the cross-examination of Michael Cohen would be the decisive moment of Donald Trump’s New York felony trial — the day we learned whether his defense team could plant reasonable doubt in the minds of jurors.

On Tuesday it became clear that the team was struggling with its most important task.

Todd Blanche, Trump’s lead defense lawyer, was like a baseball pitcher assigned to start Game 7 of the World Series after only two or three wins in his major-league career. Though a seasoned former federal prosecutor, he has little experience as a defense attorney — and it showed.

We’re only about a third of the way through Blanche’s cross, but so far, he’s too meandering and pleasant for the sharp-toned, rat-a-tat style necessary for the role.

Blanche spent more than an hour showing that Cohen, like Stormy Daniels last week, despises Trump, and this line of inquiry was entertaining if not informative. When he quoted Cohen calling Trump a “boorish cartoon misogynist,” Cohen wielded the same mild and effective rejoinder he used twice earlier: “Sounds like something I would say.” My kids would like to see me in that T-shirt.

Blanche spent a long time depicting Cohen as a publicity hound cashing in on his decision to flip on Trump. Guilty as charged. But Cohen’s unwise decision to make sport of Trump in an orange jumpsuit (and worse) earlier in the trial, while angering both the prosecution and defense, doesn’t relate to the falsification of business records at issue in the case. And Cohen made it clear that he was merely responding in kind to Trump’s childish posts, a few of which jurors have seen more than once. All told, an annoying waste of the jury’s time.

Blanche had trouble finding a rhythm. For instance, he asked Cohen if he had appeared on MSNBC shows anchored by Ali Velshi and Joy Reid. When Cohen said yes, Blanche had no follow-up.

But his real problem is that he has so little to work with. Cohen delivered devastating direct testimony all day Monday and again Tuesday morning, and he has been careful and low-key on cross.

Instead of attacking the prosecution’s case head-on, Blanche has been handcuffed by a client nursing a perverse desire to see Cohen’s insults — and his own — aired in open court.

At around 4 p.m. Tuesday, shortly before court adjourned for the day, Blanche began delving into why other prosecutors have passed on this case. That could be promising for him. But after all the runs the prosecution has already scored, he’ll have to strike Cohen out with the bases loaded to get back into the game.

Michelle Goldberg

Top Republicans Come Face to Face With Trump’s Seamy Past

On a day when Michael Cohen, Donald Trump’s former fixer, testified about the price of loyalty to Trump, a group of Republicans, including House Speaker Mike Johnson, Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota and Vivek Ramaswamy, a former presidential candidate, showed up at the courthouse to demonstrate their loyalty to Trump.

Sitting in the courtroom on Tuesday on my first day at the trial, I kept wondering what they were thinking as they heard Cohen, seeming every bit the weary, reluctantly reformed TV gangster, testify about his mafia-like interactions with Trumpworld.

He described how, after his home and office were raided by the F.B.I., Trump encouraged him, both through a “really sketchy” lawyer and through his own Twitter posts, to, in Cohen’s words, “Stay in the fold, stay loyal, don’t flip.” He described how once he decided “not to lie for President Trump any longer,” the then-president publicly attacked him.

Cohen now seems like a man whose life has been essentially wrecked — he went to prison, lost his law license, had to sell his New York and Chicago taxi medallions and is still on supervised release. Though his implosion has been particularly severe, he is far from alone; many people who’ve served Trump, no matter how faithfully, have been ruined in various ways by the experience.

Nevertheless, as Trump runs for re-election, Republicans are climbing over one another to get as close to him as possible. Toward the end of his testimony for the prosecution, Cohen was asked about his regrets.

“To keep the loyalty and to do things that he had asked me to do, I violated my moral compass, and I suffered the penalty,” he said. I’d like to know if Johnson, hearing this, had even a flicker of foreboding.

The Increase in Drowning Deaths Should Be a National Priority

Drowning deaths in the United States rose by more than 12 percent to an estimated 4,500 per year during the pandemic, according to grim new data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The increase, from 4,000 per year in 2019, comes as this long-neglected public health crisis is slowly beginning to draw some attention from government policymakers.

“It’s moving in the wrong direction,” the C.D.C. director, Dr. Mandy Cohen, told The Times. The agency said more than half of Americans had never taken a swimming lesson.

The sobering data is an opportunity for President Biden and health officials to finally make drowning prevention a national priority.

Drowning is the leading cause of death for children ages 1 to 4 in the United States and the second leading cause of death by accidental injury for children 5 to 14. Tackling the issue has clear bipartisan appeal and would improve quality of life in every American community.

Despite the obvious need for action, federal, state and local governments in the United States have invested very little to prevent these deaths.

The rise in deaths has caught the eye of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, whose philanthropy told The Times this week it plans for the first time to direct millions of dollars to drowning prevention efforts within the United States to improve data collection and help fund swimming lessons in 10 states where drowning rates are highest: Alaska, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Michigan, New York, Oklahoma and Texas.

The planned $17.6 million investment by Bloomberg Philanthropies is modest compared with the $104 million it is spending globally on preventing drownings. But the focus by Bloomberg, whose prominent public health campaigns helped ban smoking in bars and restaurants in New York, could help raise the profile of this issue. Executives at the philanthropy said they planned to work with the C.D.C.

Many Americans of even wealthy backgrounds have lost children to drowning. But drowning is also an issue of equity. Black people and Native Americans are at substantially increased risk of drowning. So are teenage boys. The C.D.C. report found that these trends have continued. In 2020, they said, Black Americans saw the greatest increase in fatal drownings.

Red Cross surveys suggest that a majority of Americans lack basic swimming abilities. With C.D.C. data showing the existence of more than 10 million private pools in the United States and fewer than 309,000 public ones, it’s clear that large numbers of Americans lack access to basic information about water safety, as well as safe places to learn to swim. Instead of a public health issue, drowning is treated as a private matter and swimming as a luxury. To save lives, this needs to change.

David Brooks

Why Trump Is Ahead in So Many Swing States

What do American voters want? The latest New York Times/Siena polls of swing states offer some confusing evidence on this point. Some of the polling results suggest that Americans are in a revolutionary frame of mind: Asked whether the political and economic systems need major changes, 69 percent of respondents said those systems need major changes or should be entirely torn down.

On the other hand, when the pollsters gave voters a choice between a candidate who would bring the country back to normal and one who would bring major changes, 51 percent said they would prefer the back-to-normal candidate and only 40 percent would prefer the major-changes candidate.

So which is it? Is 2024 a change election in which people want someone who will shake things up, or is this a stability election in which people are going to vote for the candidate of order over the candidate of chaos?

Well, different voters want different things. But if I had to write a single sentence that reconciled these diverse findings, it would be this: The people who run America’s systems have led the country seriously astray; we need a president who will shake things up and lead the country back to normal.

When they hear “systems,” I assume voters are thinking of the network of institutions run by America’s elite — corporations, governing agencies, higher education, the news media and so on. If voters believe one thing about Donald Trump it’s that he’s against these systems and these systems are against him.

Voters clearly see President Biden implicated in these systems. The heart of his problem heaves into view when people are asked which candidate will bring about change. Seventy percent of voters said that Trump would bring about major changes or tear down the system entirely if elected. And 71 percent of voters said that little or nothing would change if Biden was re-elected.

In other words, the evidence suggests that the swing voter wants reactionary change, not revolutionary change. The mood suggested by the evidence is angry nostalgia. That would be my explanation for why Trump is so convincingly ahead in most of the swing states.

Trump Told Cohen Disclosure of His Fling Would Be a ‘Total Disaster’

When Michael Cohen took the stand for the first time in Donald Trump’s hush-money trial on Monday morning, he almost accidentally sat down without taking the oath. But after he raised his hand and swore to tell the truth, he seemed to do so.

In dry language, with his impulse-control problems nowhere in sight, he landed blow after blow on the former president.

Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer and fixer, is willing to look like a stooge — pathetically eager for any praise from the boss — to implant in jurors’ minds that even in the absence of incriminating emails, he should be believed because of all the time he spent looking for Brownie points from Trump. When he did so, he was implicating Trump.

Cohen’s testimony about the Playboy model Karen McDougal, who says she had a nine-month affair with Trump, is important beyond Trump describing her to Cohen as “beautiful.” It cemented Trump’s attention to detail, which we’ve heard a lot about already. He constantly asked for updates on the hush money that American Media Inc., publisher of The National Enquirer, was paying at his direction to McDougal, replying, “Great!” or “Fantastic,” when Cohen delivered them.

Cohen’s tape of Trump discussing that deal landed hard when it was played, and not just because it was Trump’s voice talking about “150” — a clear reference to the $150,000 in hush money that Trump — through Cohen and A.M.I. — was originally going to pay McDougal. Trump’s micromanaging, which we’ve heard about for two weeks, came to life in a way that didn’t help him. And when Cohen dissected practically every moment of the call, there was no mistaking the meaning of the brief conversation.

When Cohen told Trump that Stormy Daniels was shopping her story, “Trump was really angry with me,” he said. Trump told Cohen: “‘I thought you had this under control, I thought you took care of this! … Just take care of it!’”

According to Cohen, Trump thought he would surely lose the 2016 election if the Daniels story came out. He testified that Trump said, “This is a disaster, a total disaster. Women will hate me,” and added that “guys, they think it’s cool” to have sex with a porn star, “but this is going to be a disaster for the campaign.” In combination with the fallout from the “Access Hollywood” tapes, they agreed, it would send his already low polling with women into a tailspin.

“Get control of it!” Trump barked, Cohen testified. “Just get past the election. If I win, it’ll have no relevance when I’m president. And if I lose, I don’t really care.”

Here the prosecutor, Susan Hoffinger, asked if Cohen inquired about Melania Trump. He said yes, and said Trump responded: “Don’t worry. How long do you think I’ll be on the market for? Not long.”

Wow. With Trump, every time you think he’s touched bottom, he crashes through the floor. Here he was already looking ahead to his third divorce.

Cohen is doing very well on direct examination. The test will come Tuesday afternoon, when cross-examination is likely to begin.

Israel Needs to Allow More Aid Crossings to Keep Gazans Alive

An already unbearable situation in Gaza is getting far worse, as hundreds of thousands of desperate Palestinian families flee an Israeli ground operation in Rafah, in southern Gaza. Aid groups say the so-called humanitarian zone near the sea, where people are being told to move, doesn’t have enough shelter, food, water or sanitation to support the people who are already there. Without a significant infusion of new aid, this place is at risk of total famine and social chaos.

One glimmer of good news came on Sunday, when Israel opened the Western Erez crossing in northern Gaza. But virtually no aid has got through to southern Gaza for nearly a week, aid groups say. The reality is that the Gaza Strip needs many, many more crossings.

“If you have only one entry point in, then it becomes extremely valuable, and every adverse actor can disrupt it for their own gain,” Dave Harden, a former U.S.A.I.D. mission director in the West Bank and Gaza, told me.

If there were a dozen access points, spread across every two or three kilometers, then no single crossing would become a choke point, vulnerable to attack. He said there’s no reason that Israel, which controls the security envelope around Gaza, could not open far more checkpoints.

“People complain that Hamas is stealing aid, but there would be no incentive to steal if there was enough food going in,” said Harden, adding that he shared a plan to open more than half a dozen more border crossings in Gaza with a branch of the Israeli military about six weeks ago.

But since then, the opposite has occurred. The main artery for humanitarian aid, Kerem Shalom, was shut down on May 5 after a Hamas rocket attack killed four Israeli soldiers. Then Israel seized the border crossing at Rafah , gaining full control over the vital entry and exit point for people and goods for the first time since 2005. Israeli officials have blamed Egypt for the halt in humanitarian goods through Rafah since last week. But for months aid groups have cited the onerous inspections of aid convoys, Israeli attacks on aid workers and protests by right-wing Israeli settlers who have destroyed or delayed truckloads of aid as the cause of famine in Gaza.

“The situation is absolutely desperate,” Sean Carroll, who leads Anera, an American aid organization that has operated in Gaza for decades, wrote in an email on Monday. His staff members have been forced to evacuate Rafah at a moment’s notice, just like the rest of the population, and were forced to leave vital supplies in a warehouse behind.

“They are trying to keep delivering but there’s not much to deliver,” he told me.

Believe It, Democrats. Biden Could Lose.

Donald Trump may be the presidential candidate whose midday snoozing has generated headlines and animated late-night comics, but President Biden is the one who needs to wake up.

He’s a whopping 12 points behind Trump among registered voters in Nevada, according to polls by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer that were released on Monday morning. Biden won that state by nearly 2.5 points in 2020. He’s behind among registered voters in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan — in all of the six battleground states surveyed except Wisconsin. That’s not some wildly aberrant result. It echoes alarms sounded before. It speaks to stubborn troubles.

And it’s difficult for Democrats to believe. I know: I talk regularly with party leaders and party strategists and I’ve heard their incredulity. They mention abortion and how that should help Biden mightily. They mention the miserable optics of a certain Manhattan courtroom and a certain slouched defendant. They mention Jan. 6, 2021. They note Trump’s unhinged rants and autocratic musings and they say that surely, when the moment of decision arrives, a crucial share of Americans will note all of that, too, and come home to Biden.

From their lips to God’s ear. But with stakes this huge, I can’t help worrying that such hopefulness verges on magical thinking and is midwife to a confidence, even a complacency, that Biden cannot afford. He needs to step things up — to defend his record more vigorously, make the case for his second term more concretely, project more strength and more effectively communicate the most important difference between him and his opponent: Biden genuinely loves America, while Trump genuinely loves only himself.

The new polling shows that Democratic senators up for re-election are doing better than Biden , so his party affiliation isn’t his doom. That’s the lesson, too, of the favor enjoyed by Democratic governors in red and purple states . Look, for prime example, at Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania .

But Biden seems to get the blame for the war in Gaza. For the high cost of living, too. Regarding the economy, he has a story to tell — infrastructure investment, the CHIPS Act, low unemployment — and must tell it better, with an eye not on his liberal base, but on the minorities and young people who are drifting away from him. That’s the moral of the latest numbers: Take no voter for granted. And there’s not a second to waste.

Will Michael Cohen Throw Cold Water on Trump’s Polling Lead?

The next two weeks are critical for Donald Trump. He is leading President Biden in most polls in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and other swing states that will decide the 2024 election. But on Monday, the star witness in Trump’s criminal trial — Michael Cohen, his former lawyer — will begin telling a Manhattan jury that he gave $130,000 to the porn star Stormy Daniels in exchange for her silence about a sexual encounter with Trump. And based on the pace of the trial, the case could go to the jury as soon as next week.

Cohen is the linchpin to any conviction, acquittal or hung jury for Trump. More than any other witness in the case, he will put words in Trump’s mouth for jurors — telling them how the former president directed the payment to Daniels. Expect the cross-examination to be withering, but in the end, Trump’s lawyers may be hard-pressed to contain or thwart the damaging Cohen testimony without strong witnesses who can rebut it.

The trial matters because some voters say a conviction could change their thinking about Trump — a man who for years has shaken off scandals like Teflon. Failure to convict, in turn, could boost the martyr message that he’s been campaigning on at rallies like his big one in New Jersey on Saturday.

I just did a focus group with Trump voters from 2020 about how they see him now, which will be published on Tuesday. Most of these voters want to support him again because they think the economy will do better under him. But these voters volunteered how much they dislike Trump’s chaotic and inappropriate behavior, and several of them are looking at R.F.K. Jr. as a third-party candidate. What happens in the trial could steer some of these Trump voters away from him.

Biden had a successful fund-raising weekend on the West Coast, but it’s Israel’s military actions in Gaza and the cease-fire talks that will loom over both his week and the biggest event on his schedule: his commencement address at Morehouse College next Sunday. Many voters are unhappy with Biden’s approach to Gaza and general handling of the war, and he came in for some criticism over his latest move on U.S. weapons to Israel.

This isn’t an easy time for Mr. Biden to set foot on a college campus, but he’s been an admired figure at many historically Black colleges like Morehouse — and he and his campaign need to improve his standing with both Black voters and Georgia voters, where he is lagging Trump in polls. No single event will turn it around for Biden, but I think this will be one of his highest-stakes speeches of the spring.

The Table Is Set for Michael Cohen to Testify Against Trump

For months, we’ve heard that the prosecution’s entire case in Donald Trump’s New York felony trial boils down to one man: Michael Cohen.

It turns out that it doesn’t — as long as Cohen, Trump’s former lawyer, behaves himself on the witness stand beginning early next week.

For three weeks, I’ve sat in the courtroom and watched prosecutors carefully set the table for the feast of Cohen’s testimony against his longtime boss. Knowing that Cohen is a disreputable witness, they’ll basically argue that you don’t have to like the chef to swallow the food he serves.

The arc of the prosecution’s narrative has taken the jury from the “catch and kill” scheme (a coherent prelude to the crime) to the validation of highly incriminating records to the debunking of arguments for the defense. It all adds up to an effective precorroboration of Cohen’s likely testimony.

Stormy Daniels had no connection to the falsification of business records, the fundamental charge against Donald Trump. But by establishing that she did, indeed, have sex with Trump, her testimony provided important proof of motive. It’s increasingly clear to the jury that Trump coughed up the hush money to save his 2016 campaign after it was sent reeling by the “Access Hollywood” tape. He knew that a credible story of sex with a porn star would sink him. So he broke the law.

The defense has responded mostly by grasping at straws. It tried to make the hush money look like an extortion scheme, with the former president in his favorite position as victim — a difficult maneuver, considering that Trump has spent years in the same tawdry milieu.

On Monday and Friday, the defense attorney Emil Bove used technojargon and innuendo to suggest, without a shred of proof, that a key piece of evidence — a Sept. 9, 2016, call in which Trump and Cohen discussed hush money for the Playboy model Karen McDougal — was somehow tampered with by Cohen, the F.B.I. or some other sinister force and that it might not have been Cohen on the call. The idea was to use a nanosecond gap in the call and a change in phone ownership to capture the imagination of even a single conspiracy-minded juror. It takes only one to create a hung jury.

But Bove’s cross-examination crashed when a young prosecution witness explained that when people (in this case, Cohen) buy new phones, they usually keep their old numbers.

Is that all they’ve got? No, the defense is betting on the offensiveness of Cohen, who has been ignoring repeated pleas from prosecutors to keep his mouth shut in the days before he takes the stand. (Justice Juan Merchan strongly suggested he do so.)

If Cohen can straighten up and fly right, riding on a trove of evidence and surviving cross-examination, a conviction is well within sight.